It is Week 5 and the first thing to remember is that the Bye Weeks start this week. You will not be able to have the services of the Cleveland Browns (defense), the Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, or Austin Ekeler), the Seattle Seahawks (defense, D.K. Metcalf, Kenneth Walker II) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin). Plan accordingly.
My really bad was suggesting you play Tank Dell. Don’t get me wrong suggesting you play a wide receiver against the Pittsburgh Steelers was the correct call, it was just the wrong receiver (I know still my bad). Nico Collins was the play on this occasion. Collins was targeted nine times for seven receptions 168 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Dell saw three targets for one reception and 16 yards.
Once again before we begin here are some prop bets you want to pay very close attention, if winning money is your thing.
Smash Plays
QB, Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders, 44.5 o/u, Packers -1.0
This game will be played on Monday Night. Last time we saw Love he was running for his life on a Thursday Night game against the Detroit Lions. The Lions have 13 sacks to their name.
The Packers offensive line gave up 22 pressures against the Lions. They also had the worst pass blocking efficiency rating in Week 4 per Pro Football Focus. Prior to their meeting with the Lions the offensive line had only given up 13 pressures in three weeks. That’s the offensive line we hope to see Monday night.
Now after ample rest Love will get to go up against the Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Raiders have seven sacks to their name. They also rank 23rd in defensive EPA and 14th in success rate. This is a defense that made Matt Canada’s offense seem decent.
Monday night Love will get Christian Watson fully back. Love’s completion percentage (56.1%) is garbage. But he is also second in red zone attempts (29) and third in deep ball attempts (21), and the Packers’ wide receivers have seven touchdowns this season. That is tied for the third-most in the NFL.
Love’s floor is also higher because he has the ability to rack up rushing yards. He is averaging 4.0 yards per game. Love has 72 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. His floor is higher, his main weapon is back, and he is going against a Raiders’ defense that hasn’t really gotten any help for Maxx Crosby.
WR, Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams v Philadelphia Eagles, 50.5 o/u, Eagles -4.5
This is a relatively straight forward smash. The Eagles secondary is porous. They average 44.2 points to the wide receiver position. The out wide receiver is averaging 76% of those points. According to Sharp Analysis 80.5% of the yards allowed by the Eagles are through the passing game. The 80.5% is the highest rate in the league.
Now the Eagles will play the Rams who currently have two of the most dynamic receivers in the league. Rookie Puka Nacua currently leads the league in targets (52). He has had double digit targets in all but one game.
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But this is about Atwell. Atwell is on the receiving end of 35 targets. He is on the field for 84.4% snap share and a 21.9% target share. The reason for Atwell over Nacua in this matchup is minimal. Atwell is seventh in the league for deep targets with seven. Nacua is 35th with four.
You can’t lose if you smash either of these. The Eagles’ are 27th in pass defense and have given up the third most touchdown passes (9), while only totaling two interceptions.
The caveat here is quarterback Matthew Stafford is dealing with a hip injury. It could put a ceiling on his ability to get passes out before being mauled by Jalen Carter.
RB, Breece Hall, New York Jets @ Denver Broncos, 43.5 o/u, Broncos -1.5
Head coach Robert Saleh has stated that Hall is no longer on a pitch count. Just in time for the Nathaniel Hackett Revenge Game (at least that is what I am calling it). This game has been circled on the New York Jets calendar since preseason.
It helps that the Broncos are allowing the most rushing yards per game (176) and last week allowed Chicago Bears’ Khalil Herbert to average 5.7 yards per carry on his way to 103 rushing yards. This was a week after the Broncos’ defense rolled over and allowed Miami Dolphins’ De’Von Achane to average 11.3 yards per carry while running all over them for 203 yards.
Yep, come for the game stay for the post game handshake.
TE, Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons, 41.5 o/u, Falcons -2.0
So, the Falcons are giving up an average of 9.4 fantasy points to the tight end position. The Texans are not afraid to sling the ball around. The Texans have the fourth most passing attempts per game (38) while passing on 58.06% of their offensive plays.
Schultz was on the field for 49% of the offensive snaps last week. He was targeted three times for three receptions, 42 yards and a touchdown.
Cash Plays
QB, Daniel Jones, New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins, 48.5 o/u, Dolphins -11.0
Erase the last image you have of Jones. Wait before you do let me remind you that Jones was, 0-6, in prime time and the Seattle Seahawks sacked him 10 times as he was running for his life on just about every play. Okay, now erase it from your memory.
Jones’ hasn’t had a great four game stretch. His best outing was Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals where he had 321 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 59 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. He also had one interception and two fumbles. But he finished as QB1 in fantasy that week.
The Dolphins’ defense isn’t as formidable. They have seven sacks for the season (four of which were courtesy of Mac Jones) and have allowed two of the four quarterbacks they have faced to pass for over 300 yards. The Dolphins have also given up 56 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to the position.
Jones floor remains stable because of his rushing ability. Even in that hot mess that was last Monday night, Jones finished as QB24. He was ahead of Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Desmond Ridder ( I know it’s a low bar just let me have it).
Jones should rebound against the Dolphins. We just have to have faith that last year’s Coach of the Year will find a way.
WR, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings, 52.5 o/u, Chiefs -4.5
Minnesota has allowed the third most yards (882) to wide receivers. The Vikings allow 26.3 completions per game while surrendering 24.7 fantasy points to the position.
Last week Rice ran the third most routes for the Chiefs and had the second most targets (5) behind Travis Kelce’s nine. Rice was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps. That was the third most for the receivers, but Rice finished with more receptions (3) and yards (32) than the other three receivers. Rice has been targeted on 37% of his routes run and the rookie appears to be the man behind the man in this offense for the time being.
RB, Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers v Baltimore Ravens, 37.5 o/u, Ravens -4.0
This is a PPR play. Warren has outscored Najee Harris in PPR leagues. Currently Warren is fourth among running back in targets averaging 5.5 a game and is tied for second in receptions (9) averaging 4.5 per game.
Let’s face it we have no idea how Matt Canada will screw this up. And the divisional rivalry games in this division are usually brutal and hard to predict. But if you are in a PPR league, Warren instead of Harris should be your mantra.
TE, Darren Waller, New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins, 48.5 o/u, Dolphins -11
For the season, Waller has an 18.1% target share. He has run 136 routes with a 100% route participation. For his troubles he has 181 yards, two touchdowns on 23 targets in four games. This is not well spent draft capital.
It can turn around this week. The Dolphins have surrendered 178 yards to the tight end position. I can only hope that in this shallow tight end market Warren finally plays in the big boy pool.
Trash Plays
QB, Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers v Baltimore Ravens, 37.5 o/u, Ravens -4.0
Here are some number four interceptions and four touchdowns. Eleven sacks, eight deep ball attempts (29th), 6.3 yards per attempt and 18th in pass attempts (127).
The Ravens defense has collected four interceptions, three touchdowns with the third fewest fantasy points (10.8). Again, at the mercy of Canada and not liking the odds.
WR, Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos v New York Jets, 43.5 o/u, Broncos -1.5
The Jets defense is formidable. They have allowed the fifth fewest yards to wide receiver (466) and have only allowed one touchdown to the position. Sutton will run 45% of his routes wide left on the same side as Sauce Gardner. If he goes and runs 30% of his routes wide right, he will meet with D.J. Reed.
The Jets’ secondary is only giving up 11.5 receptions per game, 116.5 total receiving yards and an average of 11.5 fantasy points to the receiving position.
And then there is the added incentive of just wanting to crush Sean Payton.
RB, Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots v New Orleans Saints, 40.5 o/u, Patriots -0.5
Last week the Patriots backfield was a 60-40 split. Stevenson was on the field for 64% and Ezekiel Elliott was on the field for 36% of the offensive snaps. In the game against the Dallas Cowboys, Stevenson averaged 2.1 yards per carry on 14 carries, while Elliott averaged 2.7 yards per carry with six carries.
This week both will go against a Saints defense that has not allowed a touchdown. No running back has rushed for more than 75 yards. The best running back against the Saints was Derrick Henry. In Week 1 the Saints played the Tennessee Titans. Henry rushed 15 times for 63 rushing yards. That was the best. Stevenson is no Henry.
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