Bovada NBA Betting Tips & DFS Advice
Yesterday’s picks crushed it as they went 7-1 on the four-game NBA night slate as the Dogs and Unders came through in every matchup except for the Cavaliers failing to cover. Dogs and Unders will likely be a common thread most nights as the betting public loves the favorite in a high-scoring game most of the time which tends to set the lines more slanted to the favorite and over than it should be. Tuesday brings us another four-game slate of NBA action where a similar trend continues with a majority of the picks favoring the Dog and the Under but not as strongly as last night.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Angle” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Bets” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Timberwolves
- Celtics
- Trail Blazers
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Trail Blazers
- Timberwolves
- Celtics
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
- Magic
- Suns
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Nuggets
- Pelicans
General Overview:
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- With all of the Bovada (Vegas) totals bunched together between 210-220 points I prefer to roster players from teams that will see a pace increase, especially when they are also the favorites in their matchup.
- With no teams on the second game of a back-to-back and only the Nuggets and Pelicans will have any concerns around minutes from starters if they are involved in a blowout since they are the only teams that play again tomorrow night.
- Consider rostering more players from these teams that could achieve increased production compared to their averages:
- Timberwolves (Pace Up, High-Scoring)
- Celtics (Pace Up, High-Scoring)
- Trail Blazers (Pace Up, High-Scoring)
- Beware of players from these teams who may have decreased production compared to their averages:
- Nuggets (Pace Down, Less Productive)
- Pelicans (Pace Down, Less Productive)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Magic +8.5 (4-star)
- Mavericks +6 (3-star)
- Suns +10 (3-star)
- Celtics -5 (0-star)
Totals
- Mavericks/Nuggets Under 211 (3-star)
- Pelicans/Celtics Under 215 (2-star)
- Wolves/Magic Under 217 (0-star)
- Suns/Blazers Under 217 (0-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % |
| 5-star | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% |
| 4-star | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 3-star | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.0% |
| 2-star | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.3% |
| 1-star | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 0-star | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20.0% |
| Overall | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % |
| 5-star | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 4-star | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 3-star | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% |
| 2-star | 5 | 1 | 0 | 83.3% |
| 1-star | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60.0% |
| 0-star | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Overall | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% |
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