Bovada Betting Tips & DFS Advice – Wednesday, Jan 24
This is getting ridiculous as my Sides bets went a perfect 5-0 ATS yesterday with five underdog picks on the way to a +16 units. The Totals didn’t fare as well again with a poor 1-4 record ATS (-10.0 units) but still a positive overall record and units day. My Sides bets that are at least 1-star have gone an incredible 33-10-1 (76.7%). This will not continue at that pace but enjoy it while it does. Vegas (Bovada) must be making some adjustments to account for the serious Dog run as I actually have a few Favs that my model likes on Wednesday’s nine-game slate.
Each day as part of my NBA DFS process I utilize past statistical data from the season and last five games to calculate a projected the game score for each NBA game. I utilize that predicted game score to help generate my player projections and determine where I disagree with “Vegas” on either which teams or players will perform well or if the game flow will generate more points and thus fantasy points. This information is useful to try to determine where I might be more or less interested in a team or player in DFS than the general public, who often utilized the Vega lines in their analysis.
In my write-up, I will include a matchup matrix with a variety of data including the Bovada betting line, Days of rest, Season and Last 5 game scoring averages and Pace ranking. Next in the matrix will be a Blended score for the Season and Last 5 games that are derived averaging the Offensive and opposing team’s Defensive points, the Bovada (Vegas) implied game score and finally my Predicted Score that factors in a variety statistics including pace, offensive, and defensive efficiency, and so on.
I will then write up my “DFS Advice” which lists a variety of my thoughts at a high level about the day’s NBA slate from a DFS perspective. Finally, I will list all of my “Bovada Betting Tips” based on my Predicted Score compared to the Bovada line (as of about 1pm EST). I will also rate each “bet” from 0 to 5 stars with 0 being a weak play and 5 being a strong play.
HUGE DISCLAIMER: I only provide my “bets” for recreational purposes. I do not place wagers myself and only utilize this data in my DFS analysis and play. That said, I will compile my results to see how they perform and look to improve on them as the rest of the season progresses.
DFS Advice
Teams in Pace Up matchups:
- Bulls
- Pacers
- Mavericks
- Celtics
Teams in Pace Down matchups:
- Sixers
- Suns
- Rockets
- Clippers
Highest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Sixers
- Hornets
- Pacers
- Pelicans
Lowest Scoring teams according to my metrics:
- Spurs
- Grizzlies
- Jazz
- Suns
Teams I expect to be more productive than the line:
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- Jazz
- Pistons
- Hawks
- Grizzlies
Teams I expect to be less productive than the line:
- Rockets
- Celtics
- Raptors
- Clippers
General Overview:
- Cash Game targets:
- Pacers (Pace Up, High Scoring)
- Sixers (High Scoring)
- Pelicans (High Scoring)
- GPP targets:
- Hornets (High Scoring)
- Hawks (More Productive)
- Potential Fades:
- Rockets (Pace Down, Less Productive)
- Suns (Pace Down, Low Scoring)
Bovada Betting Tips
Today’s plays
Sides
- Hawks +6 (5-star)
- Mavericks +6.5 (5-star)
- Sixers -5.5 (1-star)
- Pacers -7.5 (1-star)
- Grizzlies PK (1-star)
- Clippers -1.5 (1-star)
- Timberwolves +3.5 (1-star)
- Hornets -2 (0-star)
- Pistons -2.5 (0-star)
Totals
- Rockets/Mavericks Under 218 (4-star)
- Celtics/Clippers Under 218 (4-star)
- Pelicans/Hornets Under 224 (3-star)
- Suns/Pacers Under 217 (3-star)
- Jazz/Pistons Over 200 (2-star)
- Timberwolves/Blazers Under 212 (1-star)
- Bulls/Sixers Under 219 (1-star)
- Raptors/Hawks Under 214 (1-star)
- Spurs/Grizzlies Over 193 (1-star)
Previous Results
| Sides | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 6 | 2 | 0 | 75.0% | +19.0 |
| 4-star | 6 | 1 | 0 | 85.7% | +19.6 |
| 3-star | 8 | 3 | 0 | 72.7% | +14.1 |
| 2-star | 8 | 3 | 0 | 72.7% | +9.4 |
| 1-star | 5 | 1 | 1 | 83.3% | +3.9 |
| 0-star | 3 | 8 | 0 | 27.3% | |
| Overall | 36 | 18 | 1 | 66.7% | +66.0 |
| Totals | W | L | T | Win % | Units |
| 5-star | 2 | 1 | 1 | 66.7% | +4.5 |
| 4-star | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.0% | -0.8 |
| 3-star | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80.0% | +8.7 |
| 2-star | 10 | 5 | 0 | 66.7% | +9.0 |
| 1-star | 8 | 9 | 2 | 47.1% | -1.9 |
| 0-star | 5 | 3 | 0 | 62.5% | |
| Overall | 31 | 21 | 3 | 59.6% | +19.5 |
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