It is now time to shift our gaze to the AFC South. For fantasy football purposes, this might be the most interesting division in football this year.
The AFC South will have three new offensive coordinators, two new head coaches, and potentially two rookie quarterbacks under center to begin the new season. And then you have the Tennessee Titans, who currently have Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis in their quarterback stable. Are you willing to bet your fantasy team on either of those options?
Perhaps we will be pleasantly surprised. After all, two of the best offensive minds are head coaches in this division, and the Houston Texans’ new offensive coordinator makes us cautiously optimistic. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
2022 Statistically Speaking
| Teams | Rush Att/G | Pass Att/G | Plays/G | Points/G |
| Houston Texans | 23.4 #29th | 34.1 #14th | 59.7 #25th | 17.0 T#30th |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25.8 #18th | 35.5 #10th | 64.9 #12th | 17.0 T#30th |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 25.7 #19th | 35.9 #9th | 63.3 #17th | 23.9 #9th |
| Tennessee Titans | 28.6 #11th | 26.8 #30th | 58.4 #31st | 17.5 #28th |
Houston Texans, Offensive Coordinator- Bobby Slowik
The 2023 season will be Slowik’s first season calling offensive plays and his first season as an offensive coordinator. Last season Slowik was the passing game coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. That means he was the passing game coordinator for Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brock Purdy in one season.
Last season the Houston Texans scored 28 total touchdowns. The Texans had seven rushing touchdowns, 20 passing touchdowns, and one defensive touchdown. The 49ers, by comparison, had 30 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns.
Although the passing touchdowns are important, because you know Slowik was the passing game coordinator, the rushing touchdowns are just as important. Remember that Slowik will be coming from the Kyle Shanahan West Coast system. That requires the quarterback under center to make quick passes, and the run game is emphasized. A run game dependent on zone-blocking concepts will be a new hurdle for the Texans’ offense.
In 2021, the San Francisco 49ers ran 21 personnel (2 backs, 1 tight end) on 34% of their snaps. By far the most in the NFL.
Troy Hairston should see a bigger role under Bobby Slowik than he ever did in Pep Hamilton's offense. They'll need a real receiving back too #WeAreTexans— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) February 13, 2023
The question is, will the transition from Pep Hamilton’s “no coast offense” be seamless? Not likely. Although Laremy Tunsil graded out as Pro Football Focus’ best pass blocker (91.7) last season, it wasn’t all good. The Texans’ offensive line finished last in generating yards before contact in the run game. They averaged 0.8 yards before contact. Their off-season acquisitions will be paramount.
Free Agency
The Texans have been interestingly busy during the free agency period. From a trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they acquired guard Shaq Mason and a seventh-round pick while only giving up a sixth-round pick. Although they let guard Justin McCray, go, they acquired guard Michael Deiter. But they also resigned center Scott Quessenberry who graded out as the worst center in the league per PFF last season.
They let go of unhappy wide receiver Brandin Cooks while acquiring wide receiver Robert Woods. The Texans added more depth in the wide receiver room with the signing of Noah Brown while also adding running back Mike Boone. The acquisition of quarterback Case Keenum gives the team veteran depth.
The Texans have 12 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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- Round 1, Pick 2
- Round 1, Pick 12 (from Cleveland)
- Round 2, Pick 33
- Round 3, Pick 65
- Round 3, Pick 73 (from Cleveland)
- Round 4, Pick 104
- Round 5, Pick 161 (from Dallas)
- Round 6, Pick 188 ( from New York Giants)
- Round 6, Pick 201 (from Minnesota)
- Round 6, Pick 203 (from New Orleans)
- Round 7, Pick 230 (from Tampa Bay)
- Round 7, Pick 259 (compensatory)
Fantasy Relevance
Not wanting to shrug off my responsibilities here, but it all depends on the quarterback selection, right? Purdy’s production last year almost proves the Shanahan system is quarterback-proof. But there are scenarios where you can see this going sideways.
Brown feels like a depth addition. Woods has the highest potential ceiling, but even that is capped with a rookie quarterback, and rookie play caller in a system not known for high-value fantasy receivers. Last season Brandon Aiyuk was WR15 in both standard and PPR leagues. Deebo Samuel finished as WR34 in standard and WR38 in PPR leagues.
The potential for this offense to play two running back sets puts Boone on the fantasy map as a late-round flyer.
Indianapolis Colts, Offensive Coordinator- Jim Bob Cooter
Who says history doesn’t repeat itself? Cooter was an offensive assistant in Indianapolis from 2009-2011. Now he is back in Indianapolis as the offensive coordinator. But new head coach Shane Steichen will be calling the offensive plays.
Steichen was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles last season. He took over play-calling in November 2021. From that point on, the Eagles’ offense finished second in points per game (27.2), third in total offense (389.1 yards per game), and third in red zone scoring percentage (68.00%).
Last season the Colts were 29th in red zone scoring percentage (45.83%). The Colts scored a total of 25 touchdowns for the entire season. Eight touchdowns came from rushing, while 17 came from the passing game. And they were 27th in average yards per game (311.6).
Steichen is known for his flexibility and creativity. He has designed offenses to be run by Philip Rivers, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts, all with success. According to Steichen, “…but my philosophy is we are going to throw to score points in this league and run to win.” Per Sportskeeda.com, Steichen’s offensive schemes are designed to exploit the defense and create mismatches using pre-snap reads to identify the best offensive option.
Steichen’s offense last year included using short passes and the run to set up explosive plays downfield. The result was the Eagles finished second in the league in explosive plays.
Steichen’s wide receiving corps currently displays a different skill set from what he had in Philadelphia. The Eagles’ wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith differ from the Colts’ Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce.
Brown averaged 17 yards per reception and was second in yards after the catch with 543. Smith averaged 12.6 yards per reception and was seventh in yards after the catch with 485.
Meanwhile, Pittman Jr. averaged 9.3 yards per reception last season and was 20th in yards after the catch with 346. Pierce was 89th in yards after the catch with 117, averaging 14.5 yards per reception.
Free Agency
The Colts have had a relatively quiet free-agency period. They lost wide receiver Parris Campbell and picked up wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie. The Colts also acquired the services of quarterback Gardner Minshew and tight end Pharaoh Brown.
The Colts currently have nine picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 1, Pick 4
- Round 2, Pick 35
- Round 3, Pick 79 (from Washington)
- Round 4, Pick 106
- Round 5, Pick 138
- Round 5, Pick 169 (compensatory from Dallas)
- Round 7, Pick 221
- Round 7, Pick 236 (from Tampa Bay)
Fantasy Relevance
There are rumors that the Colts are trying to swap places with the Arizona Cardinals. So, who is worthy of that swap and potential loss of draft capital?
Can you count Minshew out for fantasy purposes, especially in an offense he is familiar with? If either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud winds up in Indiana, it is worth fantasy consideration.
Tennessee Titans, Offensive Coordinator-Tim Kelly
After a season where the Titans were 30th in net passing yards (2914) and tied for 28th in touchdown passes (16), Kelly was promoted from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator. Dramatic pause…does it seem slightly strange that the man in charge of the dismal passing game gets promoted, but it’s Tennessee ya’ll, and anything can happen. This is especially true when your three quarterbacks were Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, and Joshua Dobbs. And there is a fair argument that last-minute replacement Dobbs was the most productive of the three.
But Dobbs is gone, and Kelly is now the offensive coordinator. The promotion from within tells you that the Titans will remain consistent in their offensive philosophy. Head coach Mike Vrabel described his thoughts on the offense, “You have to be efficient throwing the football…We turned it over too many times…you have to play with a physical style, whether that’s throwing the football…I believe in mixing tempos, having the ability to play different personnel groups…not having guys that are in there when we throw the football, or having guys in there when we run the football.”
Besides running back, Derrick Henry, who had the second most rushing yards (1538) and the second most rushing touchdowns (13)last season, little else went right for the Titans. They could only reach the red zone 2.47 times per game. That was the second-worst mark in the NFL, per TruMedia. The Titans were last in the league in points scored in the second half (94) and overtime.
Todd Downing’s offense was predictable. On first downs, they passed the ball with the third-fewest percentage out of 11 personnel and the second-fewest out of 12 personnel. Per Next Gen Stats, the Titans were 31st in the league in passing on first downs and 23rd in the league in passing on second downs.
When Kelly called plays in Houston (with Deshaun Watson under center), his offensive schemes relied on the passing game. His passing percentage on first downs was 60.3%, 68.1%, and 60.9%. In the two seasons with Downing, the Titans threw the ball on first downs 53.7% and 55.2%, respectively.
Free Agency
The Titans lost wide receiver Robert Woods and tight end Austin Hooper, in free agency. While the Titans did not significantly add to either of those positions, they currently have six picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 1, Pick 11
- Round 2, Pick 41
- Round 3, Pick 72
- Round 5, Pick 147
- Round 6, Pick 186 (from Atlanta)
- Round 7, Pick 228
Fantasy Relevance
It is hard to be excited about any player not named Derrick Henry. In addition to his stellar rushing performance last season, Henry also had a career-best in targets (41), receptions (33), and receiving yards (398).
Jacksonville Jaguars, Offensive Coordinator-Press Taylor
This will be the second season for Taylor as offensive coordinator in Jacksonville. That makes him the most tenured offensive coordinator in the AFC South. But head coach Doug Pederson calls the offensive plays in Jacksonville.
Let’s just admire the difference Pederson/Taylor made in one year:
| 2021-Urban Meyer | 2022-Doug Pederson | |
| Points per Game | 32nd | 10th |
| EPA/Play | 28th | 8th |
| Success Rate | 19th | 5th |
| Passing EPA/Play | 27th | 6th |
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence went from 17 to 12 interceptions, four of the 12 coming against the Los Angeles Chargers in their playoff game. Per Pro Football Focus in 2021, Lawrence was 27th in turnover-worthy plays on 3.7% of his dropbacks. That number improved to 20% at 3.0% of his dropbacks in 2022. Lawrence went from a 59.6% completion percentage (in 2021) to a 66.3% completion percentage in 2022.
https://twitter.com/J_Nubz/status/1644513973084012545?t=kXuVGft4-hIJA9iPOnmFJw &s=03
It wasn’t all completely good. They went from 10th to 21st in rushing success rate. And they neither gained nor lost on their 25th finish in rushing EPA per play.
Last season the Jaguars spent an NFL record of approximately $175 million in guaranteed money in free agency. This season they didn’t go that big but managed to retain the services of tight end Evan Engram (franchise tag) and resigned running back JaMycal Hasty.
Free Agency
The Jaguars lost tight end Chris Manhertz. They acquired the services of running back D’Ernest Johnson. The Jaguars added some much-needed help on the defensive end and two offensive linemen, but it was remarkably different from last year’s free agency spending frenzy.
The Jaguars currently have nine picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
- Round 1, Pick 24
- Round 2, Pick 56
- Round 3, Pick 88
- Round 4, Pick 121 (from Tampa Bay)
- Round 4, Pick 127
- Round 6, Pick 185 (from New York Jets)
- Round 6, Pick 202
- Round 6, Pick 208 (from Philadelphia)
- Round 7, Pick 226 (From Carolina)
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