Breaking Down the Five Most Baffling Week 11 Bets

We’ve hit the most challenging week of NFL betting since Week Five, with five contests at a 2.5 spread or lower. Consider the following evaluation of these tricky matchups as you place your bets this week. (Odds via BetMGM)

New Orleans at Philadelphia

It was a fine moment in theatrical history when Happy Gilmore turned to Shooter McGavin and said, “Happy learned how to putt…uh oh.” I felt like Jalen Hurts could have turned and said the same to his haters after his improvement last week. “Jalen learned how to pass…uh oh.” It wasn’t that Hurts put up an amazing box score, but he just looked so much better than we’ve seen him yet. Still, it may not be enough yet to bring him home the big check in the tour championship. 

Hurts’ career as a starter began last season against New Orleans, posting 273 total yards and a score on the Saints last December. Now, Hurts has a much more reliable receiver than Alshon Jeffery to throw to, DeVonta Smith. Smith, who managed two touchdowns against Denver last week, gets the pleasure of squaring up against cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who is currently allowing a 120.2 passer rating. New Orleans’ intimidating run defense has only allowed two rushing scores over the last two weeks, but they were both to quarterbacks. 

The spirit of Alex Smith has been resurrected in Trevor Siemian since Jameis Winston’s season-ending injury. He’s been absolutely safe but not spectacular in any way, and gradually improving each game. I like him a lot sans Taysom Hill this week. Siemian threw for nearly 300 yards without Kamara last week. Philadelphia is allowing the most completions to their opposition over the last three weeks, an average of 26.3 per game. 

The real IT factor tipping the scales will be a healthy Alvin Kamara. The Eagles don’t seem to be able to stop themselves from giving away yards and catches to running backs this season, ranking 4^th in receptions allowed to the position. Kamara has scored a touchdown in all but two games he’s started this season. Another odd factoid, the Eagles haven’t won at home since losing to the Saints last season in Jalen Hurts’ first career start; that’s not just bad luck, that’s there’s ownage.

This close one will go to New Orleans and I like the over (43.5).  Possible monkey wrench in this plan: Jake Elliot hits a couple 40+ yard field goals and walks away a hero, while Brian Johnson misses another PAT.

Cincinnati at Las Vegas

The Raiders could have the longest standing record of screwing bettors over in the last decade. So I am going to present a thoughtfully rational argument bases on statistics, trends, and comparisons, and then you still need to consider doing the exact opposite than the probability would have you think to act on. Guess who the next most unpredictable team is? Yup, Cincinnati. I mean, they beat the Vikings and the Ravens, but also lost to the Jets and the Bears. 

Derek Carr has the passing advantage in this game over Joe Burrow. Cincinnati’s defense has ceded a league-high 300 passing yards per game over their last three. Hunter Renfroe outmatches the Bengals’ slot coverage by a mile and there’s no reason he shouldn’t hit paydirt for the third week in a row. While Vegas just got torched by the Chiefs for 406 passing yards, Nate Hobbs and Casey Hayward are still violently good, the 6^th and 11^th ranked cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus. It also helps their cause to have an edge rusher like Maxx Crosby terrorizing the quarterback. Crosby also notched four sacks the last time he took on Zac Taylor’s Bengals. 

Speaking of Taylor, the young head coach is 0-2 coming off bye weeks in his NFL career. Normally, I wouldn’t put much stock into this pointless area of betting interest, but like I said, we’re talking about two ridiculously inconsistent teams and every angle ought to be considered. 

Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake have the real lion’s share of explosive potential in this matchup. Over the past three weeks, the Bengals have allowed 124 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to running backs on the ground and 107 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to running backs through the air. The last time Jacobs faced Cincinnati, he ran for 112 yards. 

Granted, Joe Mixon has a chance for a great game too. Mixon, who ranks fourth among running backs in attempts and touchdowns scored this season, is averaging two scores per game over the last three weeks. Las Vegas just surrendered 144 total yards plus a score to a far less superior rusher, Darrel Williams. There’s going to be gobs of ground yards to feast on at Allegiant Stadium.

When it’s all said and done, I like the Raiders to pull it together for this one. And I love the over here (49.5). Burrow has 11 interceptions this season; Taylor knows that danger and Vegas’ vulnerability to the run, so the offensive game plan is sure to be narrow. The Raiders have more dependable options to switch around and will come out on top. Monkey wrench in the plan: Derek Carr has a multiple turnover game and the Bengals win as a result of a pick-six and two other interceptions.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Don’t give into the hype for the Green Bay at Minnesota contest. The spread here is laughable. The Packers are going to win this matchup easily and people will be shaking their heads in self-disgust, muttering, “I can’t believe I thought the Vikings had a decent chance.” 

First of all, Green Bay’s defense is solid. They have not allowed any passer more than 264 yards this season and average only 184 passing yards per game over the last three weeks. They’ve forced multiple turnovers in two out of the last three games. What’s more, no team has accumulated more than 77 rushing yards against them during that time. Kevin King has given up but one touchdown this season. The last time the Packers ceded a score to a wide receiver was in Week Seven to Terry McLaurin. 

Secondly, history is not good for Minnesota against their divisional rival the past two years, as Green Bay has taken three of the four contests. Aaron Rodgers averaged 328 yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game against them last season. It is worth noting, however, that Dalvin Cook did torch them for four scores the last time they met. 

And finally, I think we’re going to see a much healthier Rodgers on the field this week, despite the “toe” issues, running pure on ego and spite to show the world he’s number one no matter what they think of him. His reputation is absolutely on the line in this game.

Minnesota takes another painful loss this week and Green Bay covers the spread. The over will hit on this one as well (47.5); Rodgers and A.J. Dillion have something to prove and some showing off to do. Monkey wrench in this plan: Dillion gets injured early on and the Packer’s run game is decimated, leaving the game in Mason Crosby’s boot, who misses his eighth field goal of the season. 

Honorable Mentions

Thank you if you’ve traveled this far down the page with me. I’d love to touch on the other games with a sub three spread, the Cowboys at Chiefs and the Cardinals at Seahawks, but you and I both know your attention is starting to wane, so I’ll be brief. There’s major concern for Patrick Mahomes’ offensive line against Dallas. But Kansas City has upped their defensive game and I think the Boys wobble this one. Chiefs win by one point and the game stays under 55.5. The Cardinals win easy with Kyler Murray. Lockett has vanished into thin air along with the Seahawks’ rushing game. Arizona covers the spread but the over I’m not so sure about (49.5)

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