Take a deep breath and exhale. Week 13’s games are quite a bit easier to call than those in the recent past. One can place bets with relative confidence this week, understanding, of course, that there’s always an upset here and there, but all in all, the slate is clear. There are three contests this week with a spread of three or less; let us consider these challenges. (Bets via BetMGM)
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders
Strangely, the game with the narrowest spread this week appears to be the most obvious to predict a winner. The Washington Football Team would need their running backs to carry the team to a victory against the Las Vegas Raiders and that’s very unlikely to happen this week.
While Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissick have been game-changing impressive lately, McKissick is out with a neck injury for this game. Washington’s running backs have averaged a healthy 145 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, but Las Vegas just held one of the best rushing duos in the league to a cumulative 64 yards last week. The Football Team also has some injuries to their offensive line that could muffle their ability to get their run game going.
Through the air, this contest belongs to Derek Carr, who is averaging 274 passing yards per game over the last three weeks. Washington is allowing the most passing touchdowns per game and averages 2.8 passing touchdowns to their opponents in road games this season! Taylor Heinicke, on the other hand, has only thrown for multiple scores once over his last six games. His top receiver, Terry McLaurin, ranks 169th in catch percentage of targets this season among receivers. And he’s probably going to be chased around by Casey Heyward all day, who still hasn’t allowed a score in coverage this season.
The Football Team just doesn’t have a lot going for them against the Raiders. However, their recent upsets are respectable and we must remember that Las Vegas just gave the likes of Cedric Wilson and Michael Gallup 100+ yard games. Still, this is almost a guaranteed notch on Vegas’ belt and the over (49.5) is something to be wary of in this matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
The probable upset call of the week is the Los Angeles Chargers who travel to the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are favored by three, the typical home-field advantage spread. Both teams have had fantastic highs and head-scratching lows.
Joe Mixon and Austin Ekler should perform well. Mixon has been pounding through defenses and Ekler’s versatility is winning games. But if the two rushers perform anywhere close to equally well, this contest will be won or lost through the air.
Los Angeles’ secondary has only allowed one 300+ passing yard game this season and has only allowed one game in the last six weeks with over 250 passing yards. This bodes poorly for Joe Burrow, who has thrown but two touchdowns and three interceptions over the last three weeks. Justin Herbert, on the other hand, has thrown for over 300 yards in half of his games this season and has had multiple passing touchdowns in 75% of his games.
Receivers on both side of the ball have decent matchups on paper (except for Mike Williams and C.J. Uzomah), but the Chargers are averaging eight more passing attempts per game than the Bengals. Yeah, I know, the “why” here is simple. Mixon runs and Ekler catches. But guess which team ranks 28th in passing yards allowed to running backs over the past five weeks? Cincinnati.
This is going to be a good one! I like Los Angeles with points and I’d even consider the over (50.5) here.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
And now for the most talked about game of the week, Monday night when the New England Patriots head to the Buffalo Bills. Since everyone’s got an opinion on this, I’ll be brief.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Bills win this matchup, on both sides of the ball, by more than three. Stefon Diggs scored three touchdowns against New England the last time these divisional rivals met. Diggs is averaging 86 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the last three weeks. But, wait? Bill Belichick takes away his opposition’s top player, one may protest. Not always, guys, Belichick is human too and didn’t have success against Diggs last time. Josh Allen has it in him to sharpen his game and protect the ball against a stingy Patriots’ defense. Does Mac Jones have it in him to compete with a similarly stout Bills defense? I don’t know…
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While Buffalo has experienced some deflatingly strange losses this year, they still rank in the top ten in total yards. New England is on a six-game win streak, but that’s against some truly awful offenses (the only shocking win in there was against the Chargers). They haven’t had to battle the defensive powerhouses that the Bills have faced. These two defenses are damn near equally amazing this season. Josh Allen is historically very good in primetime games, a 5-1.
I would take the Bills with points in this game and I like the over here. After what Jonathan Taylor did to Buffalo, I think New England will be plowing through with their plethora of runners. Ultimately though, Allen, Diggs, and Dawson Knox come through on top here.
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