Week 14 presents us with four games with a spread of less than three points. (Bets via BetMGM) If you want to take a crack at shattering some odds, consider these against the grain underdogs and upsets. (Hint: it’s all of them in the aforementioned games.)
San Francisco at Cincinnati
San Francisco is favored in Cincinnati this week and it’s easy to understand why. The only thing the Bengals have had going for them since Joe Burrow’s sloppy slump started is Joe Mixon, and the 49ers rank in the top ten in fewest rushing yards allowed over that time. If this game weren’t in Cincinnati, we wouldn’t be talking about it because the spread would be higher. And then I’d like the Bengals even more.
Paydirt is what I want to focus on. San Francisco’s defense, though limiting yards sufficiently to running backs and receivers, has surrendered the second-most touchdowns to both positions over the last three weeks. And that includes playing against the likes of both the Jaguars and the Seahawks, who have been abysmal at scoring lately.
Let’s also talk about defense. While Jimmy Garoppolo and Burrow both average throwing one pick per game in their last three, the Bengals’ defense has twice as many interceptions than the 49ers’ defense over the past three weeks.
If Deebo Samuel doesn’t play, of course this upset gets even more tantalizing. Still, I don’t think there’s any question that Cincinnati’s wide receivers outmatch their coverage in this one. And while George Kittle far surpasses his coverage, it looks like Chidobe Awuzie will be able to join Eli Apple in a tough battle against the San Francisco wideouts. The Bengals can take this game, but I don’t think we will see enough action to take the over here (48.5).
Baltimore at Cleveland
We would have thought that this divisional rivalry would have been a fun matchup prior to the season. We also wouldn’t have given a second thought to betting on Baltimore. Yet here we are, looking at Cleveland’s hobbled cast as 2.5-point favorites. Why? It’s simple: Jackson has thrown five interceptions and been sacked nine times in the last two weeks. And four of those picks came against the Browns. Even worse, Jackson has only had two multiple passing touchdown games this season and hasn’t rushed for a touchdown since Week Two.
Still, if there’s any quarterback having a worse than expected year than Jackson, it’s Baker Mayfield. Not only is he, like, half a man, health-wise, but his receiving options may be the most lackluster in the league. Nick Chubb is there, and pretty much carrying this team, but his kryptonite was the Ravens’ stellar run defense two weeks ago. Baltimore is ranked second in fewest yards allowed to running backs over the last three weeks, an average of only 72 per game.
Both of these defenses have been stingy lately, but Baltimore is surrendering fewer yards and fewer points than Cleveland. The Ravens’ defense has surrendered an average of 14.3 points per game over their last three while the Browns’ has given up an average of 23.7. And while both teams are terrible in the scoring category, Cleveland is dead last in points per game during that time with an average of 10. So give me a get-right game for Baltimore this week and, what the heck, go ahead and give me the over (42.5); there’s nothing like a rivalry game to get wild with.
Atlanta at Carolina
Since the Cam Newton fire fizzled out, no one really cares about this divisional game in Carolina. Being a redemption game for me, I do care, and I’m on board with Atlanta (the last time I bet against the Falcons, I got burned bad).
First of all, let’s get one thing straight. While Cordarrelle Patterson’s receiving stats have gone down lately, he’s most likely going to be back to his receiver-esque status for this contest. Carolina has one of the best defenses against pass catching running backs this season, but one of the worst against wide receivers recently. Even in their loss to Carolina earlier this season, the Falcons’ running backs combined for 10 catches, 59 yards, and a touchdown. Oh, and don’t the Falcons have another sneaky wide receiver style player who isn’t specifically a wide receiver?
Things went very poorly for Newton in the last game before the Panthers’ bye week, and although his rushing ability is always a threat, the question will be whether he can keep up with the Falcons. Atlanta managed an average of 356 total offense yards against two very decent defenses in the past two weeks. Carolina also faced a couple stout defenses in the weeks before their bye, but they only averaged 248 total yards.
This game is certainly the crapshoot of the week. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Zane Gonzales and Younghoe Koo to possibly combine for nine field goals Sunday. Keep this one out of your parlays but if you have to touch it, go for the underdog and the under (41.5).
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Los Angeles Rams at Arizona
The Kyler Murray led Cardinals only have one loss this season (Green Bay). They have two serious potential losses in their future, Indianapolis in Week 16 and the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Now, in that one loss, Kyler Murray had a decent passing game, with 274 yards, despite being kept out of the endzone. However, Arizona was held to 74 rushing yards. In Arizona’s other loss of the season, they were kept to 65 rushing yards. The Rams’ defense ranks 7th in fewest rushing yards allowed. In fact, the last time Los Angeles allowed a rusher to top 100 yards against them was in Week 4 against their divisional rival, the Cardinals.
Embed from Getty ImagesLos Angeles is capable and I’m guessing they want their revenge. Arizona ranks 29th in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs, which bodes well for Darrell Henderson. DeAndre Hopkins is going to get all the Jalen Ramsey he can handle. Matt Stafford ranks sixth in passing yards per game over the last three weeks with an average of 267 per game. If the Rams keep Kyler from getting a rushing score in this game, I think they’ll get their payback. Will it be a shootout and hit that over (51.5)? Yeah, why not? Monday nights and the Rams have reminiscence of massive scoring.
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