Breakout or Fakeout Week 1: A Look at All of Week One’s Surprises

Every week I’m going to break down all the “surprise” performances from every game, and I will assess their fantasy potential going forward. Any player deemed a “Breakout” is someone I think will become a viable fantasy performer going forward, and someone you may want to consider adding from the waiver wire or inserting into your starting lineup if you already own him.

On the other end of the spectrum, a player deemed a “Fakeout” is a player that I think will not be consistent to add or start going forward. These player could have another good game, but will be too inconsistent to be relied upon on a regular basis.

Let’s get to it…

Breakouts

RB Dion Lewis, Patriots (15 carries 69 yards, 4 receptions 51 yards)

With LeGarrette Blount suspended and Jonas Gray no longer on the team, Dion Lewis got the bulk of the work in the opening game on Thursday night — and boy did he take advantage of it. Lewis will move in to the “Shane Vereen” role in this Patriots offense — so even with Blount returning next week — Lewis will have a big role. He won’t get too many carries inside the five yard line, as — even with Blount out — Lewis was taken out of the game in favor of Brandon Bolden. With that said, Lewis will still get plenty of work. He is more of a PPR Breakout as he may not score a lot, but will be viable moving forward in any format.

QB Tyrod Taylor, Bills (14/19 195 yards 1 TD, 9 carries 41 yards)

I put him in the Breakout section but temper your expectations. If you’re in a 10 or 12 team league chances are you have better options. For those in larger leagues (14-plus), or if you play in a two quarterback league Taylor is definitely someone you will want to look at. Another scenario he could be in your lineup is if you stream quarterbacks. His rushing ability is what makes him fantasy viable, and I expect head coach Rex Ryan to run him even more than they did in Week 1 going forward.

TE Tyler Eifert, Bengals (9 receptions 104 yards 2 TDs)

I have been singing the Eifert breakout song all summer long. I personally own him in two of my four season long leagues and I played him in daily fantasy as well. I was quite happy to see my call come through this early in the season. With his 13 and 8 yard TDs, he is obviously a red zone threat. He is athletic and can get down the field, as evidence by his 31 yard reception in the second quarter. As long as he can stay healthy he will be a top seven tight end moving forward.

WR Donte Moncrief, Colts (6 receptions 46 yards 1 TD)

Moncrief would have made this list even if T.Y. Hilton hadn’t gotten hurt, but the fact that Hilton will miss at least a few weeks (update T.Y. Hilton is day to day, but Moncrief still viable) makes this pick an easy one. Even with Hilton on the field, Moncrief was the second on the team in targets. I could be wrong, but I’d gamble that Moncrief, not Andre Johnson, moves into the T.Y. Hilton role in this offense.

TE Ladarius Green, Chargers (5 receptions 74 yards 1 TD)

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Green got six targets in the game versus the Lions on Sunday, and that number of targets puts Green in some elite company for a tight end. Travis Kelce had six target and Martellus Bennet had seven, both top five tight ends. Rivers loves throwing to the tight end, especially in the red zone, and as long as Antonio Gates is out with the suspension Green will be a viable starter, and potentially even when Gates comes back.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bucs (5 receptions 110 yards 2 TDs)

Another tight end to make the list. I think I may have mistakenly said that the tight end position was shallow this year, but if this trends continues, tight end could prove to be quite deep. Jameis Winston targeted ASF seven times in this game and was his obvious go to receiver. Mike Evans not playing could have something to do with it, but ASF is a huge 6’5″ target in the middle of the field, I expect this type of performance to continue throughout the season. Bucs will be down in a lot of games so Winston will be forced to throw it a lot.

RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons (20 carries 80 yards)

Ok, he didn’t score, but if you watched this game, he looked explosive and was clearly ahead of Devonta Freeman. Granted it was against a bad defensive team in Philly, but with the passing game the Falcons have, expect Coleman to see a ton of holes with defenses dropping in coverage to slow down Matt Ryan and that potent passing game.

Other Breakout canidates

Fakeouts

WR James Jones, Packers (4 receptions 51 yards 2 TDs)

In his previous stint in Green Bay Jones was a nice red zone threat for Aaron Rodgers, and he continued to be so in Week 1, but I don’t expect that trend to continue. He will be worth an add off the waiver wire, as I think the No. 3 receiver in a Aaron Rodgers-led offense will have value, but if you’re hoping for a two touchdown repeat performance each week I wouldn’t count on it. Eddie Lacy will be better than he was in Week 1 and Randall Cobb will eventually get healthy and steal some of those targets. I’ll make a bold statement and say this,”This will be the only multi-touchdown game for James Jones for the rest of the year.” Mark it down.

WR Percy Harvin, Bills (5 receptions 79 yards 1 TD 1 carry 9 yards)

Those numbers look really good at first glance, but when you consider 51 of those yards came on one play, they don’t look quite as good. Harvin is a big play waiting to happen, but those big plays will be few and far between and hard to predict. If we take out that one play, his stat line would be 4 receptions for 28 yards, not something to get excited about. Sammy Watkins was shadowed by “true shut down corner” Vontae Davis, so Harvin took advantage of his opportunity.

RB Bishop Sankey, Titans (12 carries 74 yards 1 TD, 2 receptions 12 yards 1 TD)

I’m not ready to buy into Sankey quite yet. The Tampa Bay defense was so bad it’s hard to asses how good he really was. The Titans will not have the luxury of playing with a big lead very often this season, nor will they have as many short red zone opportunities as they did in this game. Both of those facts is what benefited Sankey today. He is worth an add from waivers by the simple fact that Terrance West did nothing, even though he was given the first crack at scoring in the red zone but was stuffed three times at the one yardline.

QB Marcus Mariota, Titans (13/16 209 yards 4 TDs)

What a start to a career huh? Mariota is going to be a viable fantasy starting QB sooner rather than later — but not yet. Similar to Bishop Sankey, the Tampa Bay defense was just too bad to accurately asses Mariota in this game. QB is a position that is deep enough that you shouldn’t need to add Mariota. He may be an interesting streaming option or good in a two quaterback league,  but nothing more.

Other Fakeout candidates

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Geoff Lambert

Geoff has been playing fantasy football since 1996 and covering it professionally since 2015. In addition to being the founder of GoingFor2.com and The Armchair Fantasy Show, Geoff has contributed to FantasyPros, FantasyLife, and the now-defunct RotoWriters, while also appearing on a multitude of fantasy podcasts. Geoff's favorite professional teams are the 49ers, the Pelicans and the Nationals.

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