We are back for another year of fantasy football, and that means it’s time to analyze some performances and try to decide if the players are breakouts or fakeouts.
It is sound advice to never overreact to Week 1 performances in either direction. I’ll do my best to decipher what some of the performances mean for fantasy managers as the season continues.
Breakouts
Tyler Allgeier, RB (ATL)
Allgeier is in his second season, coming off a rookie year where he eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards. The Falcons drafting Bijan Robinson in the most recent draft left many to believe Allegier would become a forgotten man.
After Week 1, that wasn’t the case, and I don’t think that will happen if both backs stay healthy. Robinson out-snapped Allgeier, but the second-year RB led in touches 18-16.
Atlanta used a pretty even split between the two running backs, with a slight tendency to use Allgeier in running situations and Robinson in passing situations.
Both running backs maintained 5.0 yards per carry or better, with Robinson being slightly more explosive.
Allgeier scored three touchdowns all of last season and already rushed for two scores and 75 yards in Week 1.
Robinson’s talent commands his usage increases as he gets more acclimated to the NFL but Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offensive scheme will produce enough volume to sustain both of the running backs moving forward.
Embed from Getty ImagesJordan Love, QB (GB)
The young quarterback came out in the first game of the post-Aaron Rodgers era for the Packers and put on a show.
His completion percentage was less than ideal (55.5 percent), but he threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns against the rival Bears. He finished as QB3 in Week 1.
What was impressive about Love’s performance was that it was at Soldier Field without his best receiver Christian Watson, who missed the game with a hamstring injury.
Romeo Doubs was also nursing a hamstring injury, and he played on 29 of a possible 55 snaps, according to PFF.
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Love won’t throw for three touchdowns every week, but having his full complement of receivers will surely elevate his fantasy production.
Puka Nacua, WR (LAR)
No Cooper Kupp in Los Angeles right now, so Matthew Stafford needed a weapon to throw the ball to consistently, and it was not Van Jefferson. It was the rookie Nacua.
Nacua emerged as the top target-getter for Stafford, earning 15 targets while hauling in 10 catches for 119 yards.
Nacua posted a dominant 42.9% target rate, matching Tyreek Hill for the week. He was tied for fourth with teammate Tutu Atwell in receiving yards in Week 1.
He should continue to see this playing time over the next three weeks as long as Kupp is out.
When Kupp comes back, his production will slow down, but on a team that is expected to trail in a lot of games, he should still get a fair amount of targets.
Fakeouts
Embed from Getty ImagesTutu Atwell, WR (LAR)
I just mentioned his teammate Nacua and believe that the rookie can have success up until and after Kupp returns.
What’s different about Atwell?
A lot, actually. Atwell has been on the team since 2021 and has never received significant playing until now. He didn’t earn a target in his eight-game rookie season and earned 35 targets in 13 games in 2022.
He’s a super small and speedy guy who has boom or bust written all over him. Not to mention Tyler Higbee and Jefferson are there as target competition.
He may have another big game in him before Kupp comes back, but it’ll be hard to call which one. I’m confident it won’t likely be this week against the 49ers.
Justice Hill (Bal)
JK Dobbins seemed poised for a breakout year, but a torn Achilles ended his season. Justice Hill finished with two rushing TDs and an RB 19 finish.
Hill, however, was far from impressive, with nine yards on eight attempts.
Gus Edwards was the second running back to play an offensive snap, but Hill also received early-down snaps in the first quarter.
The Ravens used both Hill and Edwards significantly after Dobbins’ injury
Edwards should lead the team in carries going forward but only with a slight edge over Hill, who will be used more in passing situations.
The Ravens have Melvin Gordon on the practice squad, and it’s possible he is elevated to the 53-man roster. It’s also on the board that the team decides to add a running back with Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette available.
Hill and Edwards are worth waiver pickups, but a Ravens’ running back will be tough to trust.
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