Week 14, where if you started Bailey Zappe, Ezekiel Elliott, Demarcus Robinson and Davis Allen you can almost triple your opponent’s score if they started Jared Goff, Najee Harris, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Here is a look at last week’s dynasty buys and sells. As for buys and sells for dynasty heading into Week 15, well you will have to keep reading.
*Statistics sourced from Fantasy Life & Fantasy Pros
BUY THIS
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Jefferson (WR-Minnesota Vikings)
WHY: Injury-Riddled Season May Frustrate Dynasty Manager
Jefferson has only played in six of a possible thirteen games with another injury popping up during Week 14. Despite a limited sample size through Week 1 to Week 4, Jefferson was on pace for approximately 140 receptions, 2,300 yards and 12 TDs. This is still very much vintage JJettas! Jefferson finished as the WR-6, WR-4 and WR-1 since entering the NFL in 2020. It has been both Jefferson’s ability and availability that has elevated him to a perennial top-10 WR.
The dynasty manager that has Jefferson went into the 2023 season expecting him to be an every-week starter, finishing in the top-12 wide receivers more often than not. With the shortening of patience more prevalent in the dynasty landscape, any sort of discount on Justin Jefferson is worth it. Consider that as the dynasty focus shifts to the 2024 rookie class, there is a heavy focus on the top end talent and depth of the incoming receivers. Send out your best offers now in the hopes that the Justin Jefferson dynasty manager forgot the level of fantasy impact he can have.
Josh Downs (WR-Indianapolis Colts)
WHY: Remember He Has Anthony Richardson In 2024
Despite tumbling to the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft and having his star QB only lasting four games before a season-ending injury, Downs has shown real promise in his rookie season with the Colts. Downs is on pace for just over 100 targets and 800 yards despite entering the season as the third receiver behind star Michael Pittman and sophomore Alec Pierce.
A dynasty investment in Downs is buying into a productive slot receiver (75% slot rate) that is already garnering a greater than 70-percent snap share in most games in 2023. With an influx of high-end rookie receivers entering the NFL in 2024, dynasty managers may be able to acquire Downs at a discount. While some dynasty managers want the shiny new toy, consider what Downs has already displayed in his rookie season with his a backup QB.
More Buys: Tanner Hudson (TE-Cincinnati Bengals) & Will Mallory (TE-Indianapolis Colts)
SELL THAT
Embed from Getty ImagesBailey Zappe (QB-New England Patriots)
WHY: Placeholder For 2024 1st-Round Pick
Zappe threw for a career-high three TD’s and, coincidentally, fantasy points with 21.9 (QB-7 in Week 14). It is clear that the various mid-game benching Mac Jones throughout the season would lead to Zappe taking the reins. However, we should consider what this “breakout” performance means for Zappe’s dynasty value.
The Patriots sit at the bottom of the AFC East and are more focused on how to prosper in 2024. With that in mind, Zappe’s success is unlikely to dissuade the Patriots’ brass from selecting one of the top QB’s in the upcoming NFL Draft as they currently have the second overall pick. The upside of a rookie QB will be explored, with the team left to sort out how Zappe and Jones will be oriented in the depth chart.
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Independent of Zappe’s 2024 value, the Patriots do not have the easiest schedule when it comes to defenses against QB’s. The remaining four games are against defenses that are in the top two-thirds of allowing the fewest fantasy points to QBs, including the Jets who are in the top-3. The lack of cupcake matchups coupled with a less-than-stellar supporting cast does not set Zappe up for a productive fantasy finish to the season. At this point, the dynasty community anxiously awaits which rookie QB will be under center for the Patriots in 2024.
Jake Browning (QB-Cincinatti Bengals)
WHY: The Backup Is Still A Backup
Browning’s situation is akin to Zappe’s but with a twist, we definitely know who will be the starting QB in 2024. Joe Burrow is expected to be back for the start of the 2024 season. Despite a disappointing start to the 2023 season, no top-20 finish in the first four weeks, Burrow was getting on the right track until tearing a ligament in his throwing wrist.
In Burrow’s relief, Browning has been a revelation with back to back finishes as the QB-4 in Weeks 13 and 14. There is tremendous value to the Bengals in having a backup like Browning who can step up in Burrow’s absence and play efficient, minimal turnover football. However, Browning’s value for a dynasty manager reduces dramatically once the 2023 season ends. This one is simple, if there is a dynasty manager competing and in need of starting QB depth then send Browning away while he still has value.
More Sells: Roschon Johnson (RB-Chicago Bears) & Jerry Jeudy (WR-Denver Broncos)
Thanks for stopping by and I will be posting weekly buys and sells throughout the 2023 NFL season. If you have any questions on buys and sells or weekly roster decisions please feel free to reach out on Twitter (X).
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