If you started Desmond Ridder, Zach Moss, Trenton Irwin and Logan Thomas you got at least 114 fantasy points in Week 5. The fantasy football gods giveth and the fantasy football gods taketh away. Here is a look at last week’s dynasty buys and sells. As for buys and sells for dynasty heading into Week 6, well you will have to keep reading.
BUY THIS
Embed from Getty ImagesChris Olave (WR-New Orleans Saints)
WHY: Back To Back Down Weeks Not Indicative Of Ability To Produce
Olave’s first three weeks are a stark contrast to Weeks 4 and 5. The former Buckeye averaged 10.7 targets and 100.7 yards per game from Weeks 1 to 3. Conversely, Weeks 4 and 5 resulted in per game averages of 5.5 targets and 8 yards. Olave did, however, manage to score his first TD of the season in Week 5 which gave fantasy managers a sigh of relief.
The WR’s struggles have been connected to both the health of his QB’s shoulder, Derek Carr; as well as, Olave’s own ankle. Injury excuses aside, Olave remains a top dynasty WR considering both his age and his production throughout his rookie season.
Those dynasty managers that drafted Olave in last year’s rookie draft may be growing more impatient. As the dynasty landscape is becoming increasingly nearsighted, take advantage of two consecutive down games as the ideal buy window.
Tyjae Spears (RB-Tennessee Titans)
WHY: Steady Increase In Opportunity Behind Aging Bell Cow RB
It is by no means time to put Derrick Henry out to fantasy pasture. But to ignore Tyjae Spears’ effectiveness during his steady usage thus far would be foolish.
Through five weeks, Henry has a paltry 3.8 yards per carry. King Henry’s fantasy production has been bolstered by sheer volume and converting two TDs thus far. Both Henry and Spears are stifiled by one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
Spears has 5.8 yards per carry on the season, albeit on about one-third the attempts as Henry. Further, Spears has shown a proclivity for receiving work with 3.8 targets per game as compared to Henry’s 2.2 targets per game.
Henry is the incumbent RB in the Titans backfield; however, Spears is an essential handcuff as well as a worthwhile flex play as injuries and bye weeks mount.
More Buys: Jordan Mason (RB-San Francisco 49ers) & KJ Osborn (WR-Minnesota Vikings)
SELL THAT
Embed from Getty ImagesDeAndre Hopkins (WR-Tennessee Titans)
WHY: Low Volume Passing Offense Limits Opportunity
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Hopkins’ selection of the Titans during free agency was head scratching at the time and not much changed since. What is surprising though is Hopkins’ usage, as he has been out-snapped by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Treylon Burks and Chris Moore at various points thus far.
Despite reduced snaps, Hopkins is top-10 for WRs through Week 5 in air yards (559 air yards) and target share (29.8%). This production has been hampered by catching balls from a QB that is 26th in pass attempts and has as many passing TDs as Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew (2 TDs).
Were Hopkins younger (31-years-old) I would be inclined to wait for him to find a better situation for fantasy. But since dynasty is all about extracting value and cutting losses, I would say it is time to sell Hopkins. Especially if there is a competing dynasty manager in your league that is overcome by WR injuries and bye weeks.
George Kittle (TE-San Francisco 49ers)
WHY: Uncertainty Of Opportunity Week-To-Week
Kittle remains a YAC-monster (yards after catch) in one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. Through Week 5, Kittle is sixth among TE’s in yards after catch (103 YAC) and tied for sixth in yards after contact (38 yards). YAC is how Kittle, and most of his fellow 49ers pass-catchers, produces yardage for fantasy. Conversely, Kittle sits at sixteenth in air yards (165 air yards) and is tied for fifteenth in red zone targets (3 targets).
Since entering the league in 2017, Kittle has finished inside the top-5 TEs in all but two seasons. His rookie year he finished as the TE-19 and in 2020 he also finished as the TE-19, the latter of which ended due to a foot fracture. Following Week 5, Kittle sits at the TE-6 averaging double-digit points per game.
As is always the case in dynasty, it is better to be a year too early rather than a year too late. The 30-year-old Kittle is known for having boom games, much like his 3-TD Week 5 performance. However, the 49ers offense does not consistently favor one pass-catcher. And while Travis Kelce is an ageless wonder at 34-years-old, I do not expect fellow top-tier tight ends to remain at peak production so late into their career.
More Sells: Zach Moss (RB-Indianapolis Colts) & Michael Thomas (WR-New Orleans Saints)
Thanks for stopping by and I will be posting weekly buys and sells throughout the 2023 NFL season. If you have any questions on buys and sells or weekly roster decisions please feel free to reach out on Twitter (X).
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