CeeDee Lamb has Clear Path to Being 2022’s Fantasy WR1

A glance at CeeDee Lamb‘s first two NFL seasons might compel some to say he has fallen short of expectations. Such is life when you’re a first-round pick of the Dallas Cowboys, with lofty expectations. But his age-21 and age-22 seasons stack up fairly well in league history, and he topped 1,100 yards last year.

It has been destined the Cowboys would make Lamb their No. 1 wide receiver, it was just a matter of when. Amari Cooper‘s “five-year, $100 million” contract in 2020 was essentially a two-year committment, and indeed Dallas has a deal in place to send Cooper to the Cleveland Browns. Michael Gallup will be re-signed, but he suffered a torn ACL late last season and won’t be ready to start the season. Cedrick Wilson is also a free agent, and he may or may not be back.

Lamb led the Cowboys in catches (79), targets (120) and yards (1,102) last year. In terms of target share, he outpaced Cooper by 2.4 percent (18.5 to 16.1, per Pro Football Reference). But Cooper’s 104 targets from 2021 are now gone. It’s to-be-determined exactly how they’ll be replaced, particularly early next season when Gallup is not on the field. Some answers will come if Wilson is re-signed and/or the Cowboys draft a wide receiver early. Tight end Dalton Schultz is in line for a more prominent role.

2020: Standard-WR20, Full PPR-WR22, 0.5-point PPR-WR20
2021: Standard-WR14, Full PPR-WR19, 0.5-point PPR-WR18

Lamb missed one game last season. If he had played, and met his per-game averages in that missed contest, he would have been WR12 (full PPR) and WR13 (standard and 0.5-PPR).

Cooper Kupp, last year’s fantasy WR1, is not a good benchmark as he had a record-setting campaign. He outpaced WR2 in all scoring formats by a lot (particularly in 0.5-point and full PPR). Using the tweet above from ESPN’s Matthew Berry, Lamb’s per-game average in games where he has had seven or more targets in his career (17.2), projected over 16 games, would have made him WR6 in 2020 (full PPR).

Last year, three wide receivers averaged double-digit targets per game (Kupp, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson). Lamb needs to average 2.5 more targets per game from 2021 to 2022 to get there, which feels like a certainty with Cooper gone. What else Dallas might do to keep or add wide receivers doesn’t seem likely to alter that equation much, especially with Gallup out into the season.

Going with 10 targets per game next season as an easy projection, Lamb would sit at 170 targets over 17 games (because #math). That would have narrowly given him the second-most targets in the league last season, as Kupp led the league by more than 20 with 191 targets.

With six red zone touchdowns on 24 career red zone targets, Lamb seems to have some untapped scoring potential. He didn’t score a touchdown in his final eight games last year (counting playoffs), with only two red zone targets over his final seven regular season games. Cooper’s complaints about not being used enough in the red zone seem to have been heeded by Dak Prescott-he had nine red zone targets over the final five regular season games (with three touchdowns over that span).

Lamb’s ADP could stretch into uncomfortable territory for some by August. But combined his talent with more overall target volume from a top-end quarterback (at least statistically speaking) and more red zone looks, and you’ve got the makings of the WR1 in fantasy for 2022.

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