Classic Patriot: Belichick at it Again

The genius is at it again. On Tuesday Bill Belichick shocked most of the football world when he sent one of his top defensive playmakers and edge players in Chandler Jones to the Arizona Cardinals for a 2nd round pick (61st overall) and former seventh overall pick guard Jonathan Cooper, who also happens to be the biggest draft bust in Arizona GM Steve Keim’s era. At first glance, this seems like a win for the Cardinals and just an okay or even a loss for the Patriots. After all, how can you trade a premiere end player who is just coming into his prime for a second round pick at the end of the round and a huge draft bust? If you had that thought then you clearly don’t get it. You clearly don’t get the Patriots or how they operate.

Going into the offseason the Patriots had very little cap room some of that tied into the fact they exercised the team options on former first round picks Dont’a Hightower and Jones. That caused their 2016 salaries to spike to more than seven million dollars each. That is a lot of money to tie down to two players, especially when you have a roster as chalk full of talent as the Patriots do. The Patriots have since rectified their cap problem by releasing Jerod Mayo, Scott Chandler, and Brandon LaFell, but used up a good chunk of it when they sign receiver Chris Hogan to an offer sheet the Bills couldn’t match. One way to create more room was to either trade some top players, release them, or extend them and spread out the cap hits and push some of it into the future when the cap rises further. Looking at the Patriots roster the four main cogs that were up after this year were Jones, Hightower, Jamie Collins, and Malcolm Butler (restricted free agent). There was no way they were going to be able to sign all of those players and worse all of them were on expiring deals making it near impossible to get a lot of value back in a trade. That left them with a tough problem, but a good problem to have in that they have too many good players to sign because they drafted so well.

When looking at the four players, it is clear Jones has the least value among them and in all likelihood is due the biggest payday of the four, which does not coincide with how Belichick does things. In every Belichick defense, the team has had at least one very good and intelligent linebacker to lead the core that left Collins and Hightower as the two most likely extendees and Butler a distant third due to their control over him in restricted free agency. (they can match any offer and if they tendered him as a round one free agent, which is a given, the other team would have to pony up a contract and fork over a first rounder if he was signed away)

There is also the fact although Jones has talent and is freakishly athletic, he has played in all 16 games just once in four seasons. Furthermore Jones although shows bursts of great play, struggles with consistency. Last season for example Jones started the year hot with 10.5 sacks in his first nine games. However, he finished with just two sacks in his last six, both of which came in one game. The 10.5 sacks in the first nine were also in bunches as he recorded three in the second game of the year in Buffalo, but none in games one, three or four, followed up with 7.5 sacks in weeks 5-9. Jones also struggles at times in the run as he plays with an inconsistent pad level and can get caught looking in the backfield and get knocked off balance.

Despite that Jones is still a very good player and one Belichick would probably have liked to keep, but the inconsistencies and Olivier Vernon‘s recent contract ($85 million, 52.5 guaranteed) made that ability to do so go from unlikely to zero. Thus gets to the point that makes the Patriots so successful. They trade players at the exact right time. They have done so in the past with Logan Mankins, Drew Bledsoe, and Richard Seymour (all different cases I know). However, the one thing Belichick has a leg up on is getting value back in return for an asset that is decreasing in value.

Make no mistake about it Steve Keim did a good job in this trade. They traded their biggest bust and a player without a home really in Cooper and a late second rounder for a premiere edge rusher that should have tremendous success in Arizona after all, Dwight Freeney had eight sacks last year. Throw in the fact the Cardinals get a compensatory pick (likely a 3rd rounder) if Jones and the Birds do not come to an agreement on a contract extension. This should make their defense, which for years has had to dial up pressure through blitzing to get to the quarterback tremendously better. They finally have a guy who can get home on his own and given their fantastic secondary they should have more than enough time to get there.

Looking at the trade though it is hard not to see a Patriots victory in this trade. Cooper is the classic guy who is labeled as a bust, and he probably will not help, but I wouldn’t take the bet especially after offensive line guru Dante Scarnecchia returned to his perch this offseason. After that, the Patriots essentially traded up about 35 or so spots in the draft two years earlier because of the compensatory pick they would have received would be a third rounder. Those two years though are critical and after having their first rounder stripped due to the Deflategate findings (0r lack thereof) they needed more draft capital and now have four picks in the top 100 of a draft where you can find starting caliber players in the third or fourth rounds.

Instead of keeping Jones at his $7.8 million dollar salary they signed recently released defensive end Chris Long, got a second rounder and Cooper, which altogether will total less than seven million. Now Cooper is no given to make the roster and Long may already have his best years behind him as he has struggled mightily particularly in the run, but also coming up with just three sacks last season, but those are two bets I would be willing to make given their salaries and the one Jones was going to have and command in the offseason.

Every year or two the Patriots make a move and people wonder why they did it and how they will rebound from getting rid of a big name. They did it with Mankins, Randy Moss, Lawyer Milloy, Seymour, heck even Ellis Hobbs was traded a year before his decline. The Patriots know values and trading Jones and getting a potential starter in the draft for four years on the cheap makes them better in the long haul. They will be fine this year with Jabaal Sheard and Ninkovich manning the ends and last year’s draft picks Geneo Grissom and Trey Flowers getting sprung into action. After all the Patriots did not draft them in the 3rd and 4th rounds respectively to have them sit on the bench. And let’s face it, do you think arguably the best coach of all-time would trade a pro bowl caliber player now if he did not think he had viable long-term starters in Grissom and Flowers?

This is the Patriots way. They will pay for value but on their terms. They will draft and develop, but don’t for one-second think you aren’t expendable. They have proven to be right over the years and this trade promises to be no different.

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