Since the College Football Playoff was implemented in the 2014-15 season a Pac-12 team has only appeared twice. The first appearance was during the inaugural tournament when Oregon reached the title game under Marcus Mariota against Ohio State; the second was the 2015-16 season when Washington faced Alabama. In both instances, Oregon and Washington’s talent level was considerably lower than the opponent’s. Now granted it was Ohio State and Alabama but only a handful of players were drafted off those teams.
The dip in talent level in the Pac-12 is quite evident when playing against higher competition. Last season’s opening game for Washington against Auburn was a perfect example of just how far the Pac-12 has fallen. Auburn won a close matchup 21-16 with Washington having the chance to win the game in the end. After recently re-watching the game, Auburn dominated the line of scrimmage and appeared much faster than Washington. Point being that Washington won the Pac-12 title and played in the Rose Bowl (lost to Ohio State) while Auburn finished fifth … in their division.
The year before USC featured Sam Darnold at quarterback and got crushed by Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl; the year before that was Washington’s shot at Alabama in the College Football Playoff. You’d have to go back to the 2014-2015 season for the last time a Pac-12 team won the Rose Bowl (or another equivalent bowl since the playoff uses the Rose Bowl game for the semi-final).
In addition to the overall lack of talent (in comparison to other Power Five conferences) the Pac-12 is pretty deep. While the SEC is deep with quality teams the conference itself is not that deep. Barring anything substantial Alabama will probably represent the West and Georgia will most likely represent the East. Florida, LSU, Auburn will have some really good games, but the SEC is really a two-team league. The ACC is Clemson and everybody else; Miami and Virginia Tech will make it interesting but in the end, it is a Clemson league.
The Pac-12 is anyone’s guess. Washington is the favorite, but the Huskies are breaking in new starters at quarterback, running back, and an entirely new secondary. Utah made the Pac-12 championship last season and returns more production than any other team in the conference, but it has two major hurdles: At USC in late September and at Washington in early November. Oregon arguably has the conference’s best player in quarterback Justin Herbert, the most experienced offensive line and a returning front seven on defense. The Ducks also have a new defensive coordinator. They open the season against Auburn, and road games against Stanford, Washington, and USC.
The Pac-12 also boasts an interesting middle class. Stanford has been one of the more consistent teams in the country. Washington State has improved every year for four years. That is very difficult to sustain unless your name is Saban. Three road games against Utah, Oregon and Washington coupled with a historically porous defense Washington State has the potential to lose all three games. USC has a former five star quarterback returning in JT Daniels, however, the Trojans are implementing a entirely new offense with new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Arizona returns one of the more exciting players in the country in Khail Tate; UCLA is in year two of Chip Kelly.
Between the lack of elite teams and a well-balanced conference, the Pac 12 might a one- or two-loss conference champion. With Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma all having a tight grip on playoff selections only one spot will be open during the season. Will the committee choose a one-loss Pac 12 champion or a one-loss Big 10 Champion? Will a one loss team such has Georgia, Texas, or the loser of the Michigan/Ohio State game make it over a one loss Pac-12 champion? I believe so. Once again the Pac-12 will be left out of the College Football Playoff.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
