Corey Davis has been left for dead by the dynasty fantasy football masses. The former first-round pick out of Western Michigan finds himself in a bad quarterback situation on a Titans team that loves to run the football. When given the opportunity Davis flashes the ability of an elite wide receiver. Yet gamers are fleeing from him like the plague, and in doing so are missing out on a potential fantasy goldmine.
In a recent startup draft, I watched Davis fall to the seventh round. Per FantasyPros, he’s currently being drafted as the WR33. According to Dynasty League Football mock draft data, Davis’ 2019 ADP peaked at 38.5 in February and has dropped to 49.33 in May.
So what gives?
The negative perception surrounding Davis revolves around the Titans run-heavy offense. Tennessee ranked No. 9 in rush attempts last season, and Derrick Henry looks primed for his breakout campaign. Also driving down Davis’ stock is quarterback Marcus Mariota’s mediocre play, and he’ll be under the tutelage of his fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons. The Titans ranked No. 29 in overall passing offense last season and their 437 attempts bested only Seattle. Add talented second-round pick A.J. Brown to the mix competing for target share and suddenly Davis’ outlook fades to black.
But digging deeper reveals the brighter side of things, especially in regards to his dynasty outlook.
It’s a contract year for Mariota, so either he elevates his play or Davis will be catching 
passes from a new QB soon – just pray that it’s not Ryan Tannehill. The addition of rookie Brown offers Mariota another weapon in his arsenal and he is a clear upgrade from Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharp. Brown’s presence compliments Davis on the outside and will help keep defenses honest in how they scheme to cover both receivers.
Offseason acquisition Adam Humphries gives Tennessee a solid presence in the slot, which brings a balanced attack. If tight end Delanie Walker returns to form after breaking his ankle the Titans receiving corps will be more potent than at any other time during Mariota’s tenure.
And when the Titans throw the ball, more often than not it goes Davis’ way. In 2018 he commanded a 26.4-percent target share, which ranked No. 8 in the league according to PlayerProfiler. While that number figures to decrease this season Davis should keep a firm hold on the team’s overall target share. The additional talent around Davis boosts, not lowers, his value.
Titans Need to Feed Davis
Part of the problem for Davis lies with his inconsistent per-game target share, the other part is his lack of efficiency. In 2018 he had four games with 10-plus targets and six games with five or few targets. His 10 drops last season were the second-most in the league, but his catchable target rate ranked No. 59 per PlayerProfiler. In other words, he wasn’t seeing accurate passes from Mariota. Of his 112 targets, only 86 were deemed catchable.
Davis also sports below average marks in average target distance (10.9) and yards per target (8.0) but that can be explained by Mariota’s own inefficiency. Per Pro Football Reference, Mariota ranked No. 27 in adjusted net yards per attempt (5.75) last season, and his career mark of 6.15 isn’t much better.
The Titans need to find a way to consistently make Davis a bigger part of their offensive game plan. He’s seen 10-plus targets six times across two NFL seasons, but he’s made the most of it. In five of those six games he scored at least 12 PPR points, and his average across that span is 16.9 PPR points. Those 10-plus target games also account for the only two times he exceeded 100 yards receiving and two of his highest fantasy finishes.
As it stands Davis is a buy low or hold in dynasty leagues with his value dropping. If he’s on my roster I’m keeping him unless the offer is above market value. For franchises looking to acquire Davis, it might take a first-round rookie pick or a comparable player with a brighter short-term outlook. But with the current downturn in his outlook gamers can start negotiations with a lower offer.
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Things might look bleak for Davis now, but his future is bright.
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