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Scherzer is priced all the way up to $14,000 in a home game against the Dodgers. Despite their poor record, the Dodgers are still a formidable offense with high-quality lefty hitters. Even so, Scherzer is the second biggest favorite on the slate and has the lowest OTT. His 40.4% strikeout rate gives him safety (if he gives up a few runs) as well as upside. Scherzer is always a hard fade, but at his price, there is merit to fading him in tournaments. In cash games, if there is enough value, I will take Scherzer’s floor and move on.
DeGrom is one of the riskiest plays on the slate. He’s been injured and only pitched one inning in his last start. I’m not sure I have the risk tolerance to play him in cash games, but I’ll take a few shots in tournaments. If he’s healthy, he’s significantly underpriced at $9,800 on DraftKings. He’s a moderate favorite and is tied with Scherzer for the lowest OTT. The Diamondbacks have the third highest strikeout rate in the league at 25.7%. They also have the fourth lowest wRC+. If you can tolerate risk, deGrom should be one of your top options.
Hernandez will face the Tigers in Safeco Field. Its a good park for strikeouts and Hernandez will face a Tigers team that is in the middle of the pack in both strikeout rate and wRC+. The Tigers will likely have a righty-heavy lineup, giving Hernandez the platoon advantage against most batters. Hernandez is a moderate favorite and has an OTT of 3.5. Only deGrom and Scherzer have lower OTTs. At $7,100, Hernandez makes a solid pair with Scherzer for cash games.