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Kershaw will face the Pirates in Dodger Stadium. It’s not a bad matchup, but the Pirates rank 29th in strikeout rate. Kershaw is a big favorite, and has the lowest OTT (see pitcher chart) of the day, but much of that is due to a strong Dodgers bullpen. Kershaw threw just 68 pitches his last time out, so it’s reasonable to expect 80-85 pitches in this start. That isn’t enough to pay off his $12,000 salary on DraftKings. I’ll avoid Kershaw in this start, but some will be tempted to play him after looking through the other pitching options.
Pitching is ugly on Tuesday, so I may end up taking the safety of Greinke. He’s a small favorite with an OTT of 3.5, one of the lowest of the day. The Cardinals rank 13th in strikeout rate and 18th in wRC+. They are a solid offense, but nothing to be afraid of. Greinke has one of the highest strikeout rates of all the pitchers on the slate, giving him a bit of upside. I expect Greinke to finish between 18 and 23 DK points with a high floor, but fairly low ceiling. I’ll likely take shots at cheap pitchers in tournaments, but may take Greinke’s floor in cash games.
DeSclafani will face the White Sox in Great American Ballpark. He’s not a great pitcher, but has recorded at least 14.7 DK points in four straight starts. He’ll face the strikeout-prone White Sox who lose their DH in the matchup. At $7,600, he’s priced affordably, and has 20 point upside in this matchup. I don’t think DeSclafani is safe enough for cash games, but I’ll have some exposure to him as my tournament SP2.