After a smaller set of games last night, there is a full slate scheduled this evening with a lot of options to look at. There is a group of elite aces available along with a good selection of mid and low tier pitchers. Coors field is in play along with some great stack options.
Justin Verlander (HOU): $12,000 @ CWS
There are four aces to choose from in the top tier. Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Noah Syndergaard. There can be a case made for each arm tonight and selecting at least one will be necessary given the potential upside. The Astros starter grades out as the top option given the matchup. The White Sox are ranked 27th in the MLB with a 26.2% strikeout rate. Chicago is starting James Shields which will allow the Houston hitters plenty of opportunities to score runs. Not only is the strikeout upside immense, the win is almost certain.
Trevor Bauer (CLE): $9,400 @ BAL
With plenty of inexpensive hitting options available tonight, spending up with both pitchers is a great strategy. Trevor Bauer has the best matchup on the night against a struggling Orioles team. Leading the MLB with a 28.4% strikeout rate, the O’s look completely lost at the plate. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer has a 24.7% K rate. The only fear in the matchup is the long ball. Baltimore has a powerful lineup with plenty of home run hitters. Fortunately, Bauer has surrendered just one bomb to start the season. Bauer will go completely overlooked tonight with so many other viable options and his high price tag. In this matchup, we can predict the Indians starter to go deep into the game with a lot of strikeouts.
Jon Gray (COL): $6,600 vs. CHC
As a cheap, salary saving option, Jon Gray is an interesting selection. Coors field lends to plenty of runs being scored due to the altitude. However, when the weather is cooler, it neutralizes the distance the ball travels. DraftKings has completely mispriced Gray in a matchup where he can rack up a lot of strikeouts. There are plenty of strikeouts in this lineup and Gray has elite stuff. At this price, Gray only needs 20 DraftKings points to pay off 3X value. The top tier needs to score 35-40 for the same return.
Chalk – High owned stacks
1.) New York Yankees
With so many teams playing tonight, the ownership percentage should be spread out quite a bit. That being said, the Yankees are a team who will always see a lot of attention with the Giancarlo Stanton addition. Facing a fly-ball pitcher at home and the highest implied run total certainly make them an intriguing option. However, with the great expensive pitchers available, spending up on hitters is going to be difficult during roster construction. Marco Estrada is a savvy veteran who knows how to get outs. He works fast and allows catcher Russell Martin to call the entire game without waving off any pitch. There are reasons to fade the Yankees, but we could easily see multiple home runs tonight in the Bronx.
2.) Colorado Rockies
Whenever the Rockies are playing at home, they will carry ownership. Coors Field is the best hitters park in the MLB and we haven’t seen too many home games here to start the season. There are weather concerns in this game, so make sure to stay up-to-date on the status before roster lock. The Rockies will face Cubs starter, Kyle Hendricks. Fortunately for the Cubs, Hendricks is a groundball pitcher which works perfectly in the mile-high city. In 2017, the Cubs starter managed a 50.1% GB rate to go along with 22.5% soft contact. Again, the hitters are priced up, which makes it difficult to roster Rockies bats while paying up for pitching. In my opinion, both the Yankees and Rockies are completely worth fading with 13 other games to look at.
Low owned stacks
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox managed to score another eight runs last night. They are averaging over eight runs per game in their last 10. They continue to go overlooked and under-owned each night. This evening, they travel to Oakland to face Kendall Graveman. The A’s starter has struggled in 2018, allowing a 3.12 HR/9 and 5.17 SIERA. In 2017, Graveman had more issues with right-handed hitters owning a .365 wOBA against. All Red Sox bats are in play and should continue to be rostered until we see some sort of regression.
San Diego Padres
This is a stack which could actually see quite a bit of ownership, depending on what the generall lineup construction strategy looks like. Traveling to Arizona, the Padres will get a massive park upgrade in Chase Field. They will see recent call-up, Matt Koch, who has had less than desirable numbers in Triple-A. What also makes the stack intriguing is the price tag. In order to pay up for the top tier pitchers, finding a cheap, viable stack is necessary. The Padres have raw, talented hitters capable of a lot of power.
Similar to the Padres, the Detroit Tigers are very affordable and in a good spot against Jakob Junis and the Kansas City Royals. Junis is off to a great start this season for the Royals, but regression is almost certain. KC’s starter has talent, no question. However, he is a command pitcher with a lack of pitching options in his arsenal. A veteran hitting team, like the Tigers, should be able to hit Junis hard tonight. This will be the second time they see him this season and should be able to figure him out quickly. The bullpen for the Royals has been disastrous as well. The Royals are ranked 27th in xFIP (5.29) and SIERA (4.32), while also allowing a 1.35 HR/9.
Mookie Betts $5,700 @ OAK
Mike Trout $5,500 vs. SF
Aaron Judge $5,300 vs. TOR
J.D. Martinez $5,200 @ OAK
George Springer $5,100 @ CWS
A.J. Pollock $4,500 vs. SD
Andrew Benintendi $4,400 @ OAK
David Peralta $4,300 vs. SD
Lorenzo Cain $4,200 vs. MIA
Hunter Renfroe $3,600 @ ARI
Franchy Cordero $3,500 @ ARI
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