Pitchers
Blake Snell SP $9700 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
In his last 34 starts over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Snell has an insane 32% K rate but faces an Arizona team who had the 4th lowest K% last year. The good news is Arizona did not hit for power much at all with a .150 ISO while ranking 19th in hard-hit % in the 2020 shortened season. Snell was a top-eight SP in xFIP last season which is a great indicator that he was pitching well but had some bad luck on his side. With the Padres potent offense backing up Snell, I expect him to finish around seven innings pitched, 7-9 strikeouts and snag the win while being the top pitcher on the slate.
Christian Javier SP $6500 vs. Oakland Athletics
When Javier entered the Bigs last year, he came out on fire! He limited damage done by having the batters not missing the good part of the barrel with a 28.6% hard hit% while striking out 25% of batters. That number was low compared to his massive strikeout numbers throughout his minor league career (averaging around 33% in his career). Oakland spent last season as a middle-of-the-road type offensive team and not much has changed with them. They were average in K%, ISO, but they were 26th in BABIP so they struggled to find holes whenever they were put in play. Expect Javier to continue on his great start to his career and dominate in this game.
Hitting Stacks
Seattle vs. Johnny Cueto
Cueto is on the way down in his career and it showed last year and even during Spring Training this year, giving up 11 runs in 10 innings. He only had a 20% K rate but an ERA over 5 so runs are easily come by when facing him. Cueto still had an xFIP of 4.78 so it is not like he was unlucky. His hard-hit % was surprisingly lower than expected at 29.7%. To start out we will build our lineup around 1B Ty France who has a 35% hard-hit percentage since he’s been in the Majors and has stroked the ball this Spring, hitting .417 average with 5 bombs and 10 RBIs in 15 games.
Mitch Haniger is next on the list at only $3100. We know he can hit for power and he’s done just that this spring with a .818 OPS in 47 at-bats. Haniger hasn’t played in a regular-season game in over a year now but those Spring Training numbers are nice to see. Kyle Seager will be our last Seattle batter. Seager has been an average hitter throughout his career but he sees the ball extremely well. Seager had a 13% BB rate with a 13.3% K rate so he makes contact when he swings as well. This Spring he is hitting a .417 average with 7 walks and 5 runs scored in 11 games.
Chicago White Sox Righties vs. Andrew Heaney
Heaney gave up an insane 45% hard-hit rate to righties last year while giving up 1.57 HR/9 but did strikeout righties at a 24% clip. Obviously, you start your lineups with last year’s AL MVP, Jose Abreu, who had a .308 ISO last year. Luis Robert had a .273/.353/.807 slash line vs. lefties last season. Round it off with Leury Garcia and you have 3 righties who can hopefully rake against Heaney. (Garcia only had 8 ABs vs lefties last year but had 1 HR and hit .500 AVG.)
One-Off Hitters
Max Stassi vs. Dallas Keuchel
Stassi dominated last year with a .278/.352/.533 slash line which is really good for a catcher in this day in age. Stassi had a .364 ISO in 44 ABs versus lefties last season and hit 5 of his 7 homers versus them as well. Keuchel does not give up a lot of power to righties but he definitely does not strike them out either. This is a shot in the dark just like most nights at the catcher position but hopefully, Stassi snags a bomb.
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Willy Adames vs. Pablo Lopez
Adames is swinging the bat for a ton of power this spring finishing the spring with four bombs, two doubles and a triple. Lopez has been hit hard in the past with a career 33% hard-hit percentage and an ERA of 4.57. We are searching for home runs from our one-off hitters and Adames has been hitting incredibly too well to pass on him today.
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