MLB DFS Pitcher Chart & Lineup Advice – 6/27/2017
Last Updated: 6/26/2017 –Â 8:41 PM CT
The pitcher chart is located under my top plays!Â
Top Plays
Max Scherzer
Scherzer will face the Cubs in Nationals Park. I’m at the point where I’m just playing Scherzer in cash games no matter what. The Cubs are considered a good offense by most people, but they have a 22.3% strikeout percentage against righties and rank 24th in wRC+. You can fade Scherzer and his $13,000 price tag if you want, but I won’t. Scherzer is locked into my Tuesday lineups.
Luis Severino
Severino is a great tournament play on Tuesday against the White Sox. Because Scherzer is on the slate, you can’t use Severino in cash games, but he’s in a solid spot. The White Sox have the 10th highest strikeout rate against righties and have the fourth worst wRC+. Severino has strikeouts built in with a 26.9% strikeout rate this year. He also has the second lowest OTT on the slate behind Scherzer. I can’t pay $10,100 for my SP2 in cash games, but you can make the case to play Severino instead of Scherzer in tournaments to fit some bats.
Drew Pomeranz
Pomeranz will face the Twins in Fenway Park. Just like Chris Sale yesterday, the Twins don’t strike out much as a team, but two players have a 32+% strikeout percentage. Pomeranz has an OTT of four and is the second largest favorite on the slate. He’s too cheap at $7,200 on DraftKings and is one of my favorite SP2s in tournaments. Depending on the Twins lineup, I may consider him in cash games as well.
Mookie Betts/Red Sox
The Red Sox will face Hector Santiago in Fenway Park. Santiago has had a rough season and has seen his SIERA climb each season he’s played. His SIERA now sits at a career high 5.48. Betts is the Red Sox best hitter, and on a 15 game slate, it shouldn’t be a problem fitting his $5,100 salary into our lineups. Hanley Ramirez projects well in this matchup, but he’s been so cold lately, I may only have him in tournaments. If Chris Young is hitting in the top five in the order, I’ll have him in cash games, but if he’s hitting sixth or worse, I’ll save him for tournaments.
Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton will face Robert Gsellman today and costs just $4,100. There’s a point in every season where Stanton is too cheap for his power and we need to take advantage of it. I don’t think Gsellman is a bad pitcher, but I’m not scared of him either. Stanton is currently locked into my cash game lineup because I can’t pass up the value and upside that he brings for a cheap price.
Josh Donaldson/Blue Jays
Donaldson will face Kevin Gausman in the Rogers Centre. Donaldson also costs $4,100 on DraftKings and is way too cheap. Gausman has struggled this season. His ERA has spiked from 3.61 to 6.47 and his SIERA has jumped from 3.81 to 5.26 from 2016 to 2017. I’m not sure what’s wrong with Gausman, but I’m going to use hitters against him until he figures it out. The Blue Jays have the highest team run total on the slate and are one of my favorite tournament stacks.
Notes
Khris Davis has a top three home run projection today against Mike Fiers.
The last time Eric Thames played in Cincinnati, he hit five home runs in four games. I don’t believe in narratives like that, but I do believe in weak pitching, tiny ballparks, and big power.
The pitching chart will be updated often. Make sure to check back for the newest information, especially if a column is currently incomplete!
| Pitcher | Team | L/R | $Line | OTT | K | +/- | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Arrieta | CHC | R | +153 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 24.7 | 5 2/3 |
| M. Scherzer | WAS | R | -166 | 3 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 35.3 | 7 1/3 |
| R. Gsellman | NYM | R | +137 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 15.5 | 6 |
| D. Straily | MIA | R | -149 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 25.4 | 6 |
| J. Guerra | MIL | R | +117 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 16.7 | 5 |
| T. Adleman | CIN | R | -127 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 21.1 | 5 |
| C. Martinez | STL | R | -104 | 4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 27.8 | 6 1/3 |
| T. Walker | ARI | R | -104 | 4.5 | 6 | 1.5 | 22.1 | 6 |
| S. Newcomb | ATL | L | -104 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17.8 | 5 |
| J. Chacin | SDP | R | -104 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20.2 | 6 |
| J. Hoffman | COL | R | -130 | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 25.7 | 5 2/3 |
| M. Cain | SFG | R | +120 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | 13.1 | 5 |
| K. Gausman | BAL | R | +150 | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | 16.5 | 5 2/3 |
| J. Biagini | TOR | R | -163 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 20.3 | 5 2/3 |
| H. Santiago | MIN | L | +171 | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | 16.5 | 4 1/3 |
| D. Pomeranz | BOS | L | -186 | 4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 26.1 | 6 |
| M. Strahm | KCR | L | +154 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 25.6 | 4 |
| J. Verlander | DET | R | -167 | 4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 22.3 | 7 |
| T. Ross | TEX | R | +149 | 5.5 | 3.5 | -2 | 18 | 4 2/3 |
| M. Clevinger | CLE | R | -162 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 26.7 | 5 |
| S. Manaea | OAK | L | +140 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 26.6 | 6 |
| M. Fiers | HOU | R | -152 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 20.1 | 5 1/3 |
| L. Severino | NYY | R | -146 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 3 | 26.9 | 6 2/3 |
| J. Quintana | CHW | L | +135 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 23.5 | 6 1/3 |
| A. Cobb | TBR | R | -101 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 16.5 | 6 |
| T. Williams | PIT | R | -107 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 16.3 | 5 |
| J. Chavez | LAA | R | +197 | 5 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 17.6 | 5 |
| K. Maeda | LAD | R | -215 | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 24.9 | 5 1/3 |
| A. Nola | PHI | R | +161 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 22.5 | 6 |
| J. Paxton | SEA | L | -175 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 3 | 26.9 | 6 1/3 |
Key
L/R = Lefty or Righty
$Line = Money Line
OTT = Opposing team’s run total
K = Projected Strikeouts
+/- = OTT-K
K% = Strikeout Percentage
IP = Innings Projection
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