MLB DFS Pitcher Chart & Lineup Advice – 7/2/2017
Last Updated: 7/2/2017 –Â 8:50 AM CT
The pitcher chart is located under my top plays!Â
Top Plays
Max Scherzer
Scherzer will see a bit of a park upgrade as he travels to Busch Stadium to face the Cardinals. Scherzer is hard to fade every time he pitches, and this is no exception. He has a fairly tough matchup against the Cardinals who have the 19th highest strikeout percentage and the 12th highest wRC+ against righties. Scherzer has the second lowest OTT on the slate, and even though he’s not a huge favorite, it’s mostly because Carlos Martinez is also a very solid option.
Jake Arrieta
Last year, Arrieta had a 3.10 ERA and was frequently a solid fantasy option. This season, his ERA is 4.67 and he’s seen his DraftKings price drop to $7,500. I looked into the numbers for Arrieta, and this is what I found.
| K% | BB% | BABIP | HR/9 | SIERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23.9 | 9.6 | 0.241 | 0.73 | 3.94 |
| 2017 | 24.2 | 8.1 | 0.318 | 1.32 | 4.01 |
As you can see from the table, Arrieta has improved his strikeout percentage and lowered his walk percentage from 2016 to 2017. His SIERA is also basically the same. The difference is, Arrieta has been a bit unlucky with his BABIP, and is giving up a ton of home runs. In 2016, he gave up 16 home runs throughout the season, but he’s yielded 13 homers so far this year. This number should regress a bit, so I’m actually ok with using Arrieta in this matchup given his price. My biggest concern is the ballpark. With Arrieta struggling with home runs, Great American Ball Park is probably not the best place for him to pitch right now, but at his price, I’m willing to take the risk in tournaments and will consider Arrieta in cash games as well.
Marlins Bats
The Marlins have been a disappointment in their series in Miller Park, but the reasons for playing them remain the same. They get a huge park upgrade from their home ballpark, they’ll face mediocre pitching, and they’re priced as values on DraftKings. They have a team run total of five and their prices allow me to considering five Marlins in cash games. I will also use these five players as a Marlins stack in tournaments to take advantage of their low prices. In order, my favorite Marlins are: Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon, Justin Bour, and Christian Yelich.
Manny Machado
Machado will face Alex Cobb in Camden Yards. Machado has been cold for awhile, and has seen his price come down to $3,700 on DraftKings. I don’t like to play cold players in cash games, but when their price is cheap enough, I consider it. Machado is at the point where even though he hasn’t produced, the underlying talent, ballpark, and matchup allow us to make this play with some level of confidence. At worst, Machado is a great tournament play, but I currently have him as my third baseman in cash games.
Logan Morrison
Morrison has been fantastic this season. He’s one home run away from tying his career high and it’s just the second day of July. After hitting two homers yesterday, he saw his price drop $500 and is now only $4,000 on DraftKings. He’s one of the top values of the day and will have the platoon advantage against Kevin Gausman in Camden Yards. In cash games, I’m debating between Morrison, Bour, and Anthony Rizzo, but I’ll have exposure to all three in tournaments.
Notes
I won’t play Carlos Martinez in cash games, but I’m strongly considering him for tournaments. He has strikeout upside in this matchup and many will be scared off by the Nationals powerful offense.
For many of the same reasons I like Machado, Josh Donaldson is a great tournament option. He’s been cold, but his price makes him a value play. He’ll have the platoon advantage and will hit in a good park.
The pitching chart will be updated often. Make sure to check back for the newest information, especially if a column is currently incomplete!
| Pitcher | Team | L/R | $Line | OTT | K | +/- | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Pivetta | PHI | R | +140 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 24.3 | 4 2/3 |
| R. Montero | NYM | R | -152 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 22.6 | 5 1/3 |
| J. Arrieta | CHC | R | -133 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 24.2 | 6 |
| T. Adleman | CIN | R | +123 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 21.8 | 4 2/3 |
| J. Samardzija | SFG | R | -126 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 27.2 | 6 1/3 |
| T. Williams | PIT | R | +116 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | 17.3 | 5 |
| D. Straily | MIA | R | -113 | 4.5 | 6 | 1.5 | 25 | 5 |
| J. Guerra | MIL | R | +104 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 15.7 | 5 |
| M. Scherzer | WAS | R | -126 | 3.5 | 10 | 6.5 | 35 | 7 1/3 |
| C. Martinez | STL | R | +116 | 4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 28.4 | 6 1/3 |
| G. Marquez | COL | R | +120 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 19.9 | 5 1/3 |
| T. Walker | ARI | R | -130 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 19.7 | 6 1/3 |
| K. Maeda | LAD | R | -180 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 24.9 | 6 |
| J. Chacin | SDP | R | +165 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 19.8 | 5 1/3 |
| D. Pomeranz | BOS | L | -104 | 4 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 26.7 | 5 2/3 |
| J. Biagini | TOR | R | -104 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 19.7 | 5 2/3 |
| M. Clevinger | CLE | R | +106 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 28.5 | 4 |
| J. Verlander | DET | R | -115 | 4.5 | 6 | 1.5 | 22.2 | 6 1/3 |
| A. Cobb | TBR | R | -108 | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 16.4 | 5 2/3 |
| K. Gausman | BAL | R | -100 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 16.6 | 6 |
| L. Severino | NYY | R | +104 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 28.2 | 6 |
| M. Fiers | HOU | R | -113 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 20.7 | 5 2/3 |
| T. Ross | TEX | R | +114 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 5 2/3 |
| J. Quintana | CHW | L | -123 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 2 | 23.6 | 6 1/3 |
| H. Santiago | MIN | L | +125 | 5 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 16.6 | 5 1/3 |
| T. Wood | KCR | L | -135 | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | 15.7 | 4 |
| J. Paxton | SEA | L | -133 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 27.5 | 6 |
| J. Chavez | LAA | R | +123 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 18 | 5 1/3 |
| J. Teheran | ATL | R | +143 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 15.7 | 5 1/3 |
| S. Manaea | OAK | L | -155 | 3.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 25.4 | 6 2/3 |
Key
L/R = Lefty or Righty
$Line = Money Line
OTT = Opposing team’s run total
K = Projected Strikeouts
+/- = OTT-K
K% = Strikeout Percentage
IP = Innings Projection
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