DFS MLB FanDuel Home Run Predictions 6/10/19

Swingin’ for the Fences 

We start off the week with a nice, solid 9 games on tap for us tonight. It’s personally been a rough couple days but nothing that a slate like this can’t fix. As long as pitches are being thrown and bats are swinging at them, there’s hope to jump out of the rut. Once the Raptors finish off the Warriors (knock on wood), we’ll get to focus solely on MLB so let’s get this show on the road.

 

Catcher/Corner Infield

Ji-Man Choi – $2,900 vs OAK (Anderson)

If Anderson was in their system last year and got called up last season, I would get this move….kind of. He was 3-2 with a 2.64 ERA while displaying decent control. He then got called up for the Pirates and promptly gave up 8 runs over 11 IP. This year in the minors, he’s 4-4 with a 6.26 ERA on an allowed batting average of .297. He’s known as an extreme flyball pitcher while sporting a fastball, slider, and sinker. Unlucky for him, he faces a Rays team top 10 in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ among others against RHPs. Choi isn’t having a power surge right now but he’s gone 10 for his last 18 and has incredibly hitter friendly weather today (84 degrees, 11 mph wind blowing out to center). Anderson has done next to nothing to show us he’s ready for this level of competition and I think Choi and the Rays get to rocket some out against the youngster in Tropicana.

Brian Anderson – $2,900 vs STL (Wacha)

As bad as the Marlins are in general, Wacha isn’t so great either. He had a very solid relief outing recently but outside of that, it’s very hard to rely on him to give you solid/positive production as he doesn’t strike out many batters with a 41%+ hard contact rate to both sides of the plate. While his average doesn’t show it, Anderson has been one of the better players on this squad and he’s heating up at the right time against the right pitcher. Wacha displays massive splits in favor of RHBs, allowing 25 runs to them in just under 30 innings with 10 HRs (.624 SLG%). As for Anderson, he has a .260 average against RHPs as opposed to .190 vs LHPs. Marlins are almost never a comfortable target but Anderson should be able to have his way.

 

Middle Infield

Brian Dozier – $2,700 vs CWS (Despaigne)

It’s been awhile since I last saw Despaigne’s name. Here’s all you need to know: he’s not good. He plays to contact and has allowed a rather high SLG%. He does have an average GB% rate but that’s just about all he has going for him. On the Nationals’ side, Dozier has been tearing it up over the last week or so. Prior to his last start, he had gone 9-19 with three dongs. He’s boasted a .400+ batting average in this stretch and .500+ ISO with a 62% flyball rate and 54% hard contact rate. Long story short, stack the Nats and Dozier should be one of your first locks at this price point.

Javier Baez – $4,600 vs COL (Marquez)

Away from the confines of Coors, Marquez has been solid with a 3.33 ERA and an opponent slash line of .240/.287/.527 with a .197 batting average. At home, he sports a 4.93 ERA, allowing a slash line of .351/.451/.802 and a .314 average. Not even the familiarity of the home park can save a COL pitcher. Marquez has displayed reverse splits so far this season so Javy should be the #1 name that comes to mind. He has a .310 average and .414 ISO over the last week and has all aspects of Mother Nature on his side. Baez’s strikeout potential is admittedly rather high but I think the chances he knocks one out outweigh that risk.

 

Outfield

Dominic Smith – $2,400 vs NYY (Tanaka)

Tanaka is by no means a bad pitcher. To say so would be a disrespect to him. That being said, he’s been a bit duller around the edges. His strikeout numbers have noticeably decreased and he still struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Last season, it was to RHBs. This season, LHBs have his number. They hit .284 off him with a .504 SLG% off him in just over 33 IP. Meanwhile, Smith has been hitting the ball left and right in his starts and may have earned himself more playing time in the future. He’s batting .386 on the season and has hit 3 dongs in his last six starts. With a projected start in the 5 hole of the batting order, he not only has the golden spot for driving in runs but he’ll also have more opportunities to hit one out.

David Peralta – $3,700 vs PHI (Eickhoff)

We meet our old friend Eickhoff yet again. If you’re new to the article, here’s the TL,DR version: target LHBs against him. He allows a .594 SLG% along with 2.65 HR/9, a 62.5% FB%, and a 52% hard contact rate. Peralta has long been one of the Diamondbacks’ better hitters against right-handed pitching and while he has struggled since returning to the lineup, he’s gone 6 for his last 18 with a HR so a matchup against the likes of Eickhoff lines up pretty well for him.

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Today forecasts quite a bit of light rain in the earlier games but nothing we should worry too much about. There are a good deal of well below average arms out there for us to attack and take advantage of. As always, be sure to have ample exposure to those power stacks. Good luck!

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