As it stands right now we will have eleven games. I wouldn’t be surprised if we were to lose a game or two. I’m just glad we have another slate with at least six games or more. As always, there is some injury news to monitor, but right now it’s a solid slate to play. I don’t know about you all but these small slates lately are frustrating. It’s not that I haven’t been doing solid, it’s that these slates are so hard to be different and causes so many lineup trains. There is nothing like winning first in a GPP that would pay ten grand or more to only have to split it with 20 or more people. That is why these big slates are always welcome sights. It gives you more chances to be different.
Now I will stop rambling and get to the part you come to actually read. Here is where I’m at on the slate right now, with the news that is available.
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
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Guards
Top Play |Â Luka Doncic (10,900)– In his last 8 out of 9 games, he has gone for 50 or more fantasy points. In his last eight games, he has had five triple-doubles. The last time out, he only had 13 real-life points but he was still able to break 50 fantasy points. Luka has been shooting poorly at 34.6% and has missed all of his last six attempts from beyond the arc. That is why I like him here. He is not going to continue to shoot this bad, and even when he does, he still gets the value you need.
Mid-tier | Victor Oladipo (8,000)– With John Wall and Christian Wood both set to be out, it will give Oladipo a boost in usage. We know you can usually count on some points and steals for him, but since he’s been facilitating with his new team, his assists are up too. He has played at least 30 minutes in every game since arriving in Houston, and those minutes have been with at least Wood in the lineup. The usage he will gain from having Wood out of this one should give him a floor of low 40’s, and the chance to get in the mid 50’s again. Some of you might know my history with Oladipo and him costing me tens of thousands of dollars single handily. So, when I say I’m playing Oladipo it has definitely been well thought out. I’m giving him a chance with a new team and all. He is definitely in play though.
Value | Kendrick Nunn (5,400)– This will depend on Tyler Herro’s status. If Herro and Butler are both out, I think Nunn should provide good value again. He isn’t going to be as efficient shooting the ball, but he is capable of 16 or more real-life points. In the two games he has played more than 30 minutes in, he has averaged a little more than 40 fantasy points per game. While he might not go for 40 again, I do think 30 is in play and at that price, I would take it.
Fade | Lamelo Ball (7,800)– This price is too high for someone that isn’t guaranteed to see more than 26 minutes. I have been wrong about Lamelo and now he is one of my favorite young players to watch, but that doesn’t always translate to good fantasy games. I’m not saying he can’t go for 40 or more, but I think the price is just too high for someone that has played 30 minutes or more in only four games.
Others I Like: Collin Sexton, Jeremy Lamb, Wayne Ellington, Fred VanVleet
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Top Play |Â Jerami Grant (8,100)– Do you think Grant has been happy about the trade?? He has been able to show what he can do and it’s been a bright spot for the Pistons. He is averaging 25.4 real-life points per game and has played at least 30 minutes in every game this year. Since the first game, he hasn’t been under 30 fantasy points. At his price tag, he is averaging over 5x value, and in this matchup with Houston, I don’t see it stopping. He has a high floor right now with some big upside. The Rockets will be without Christian Wood in the paint too, that should help Grant more. I love this spot for Grant.
Mid-tier |Â Kristaps Porzingis (8,100)– Since his first game back, he has played 29 minutes or more in the last four. I look for him to continue to improve and help Luka Doncic carry the team. He has shot at least 14 attempts in every game and tied for the most on the team in the last game. The more he plays and gets himself into shape the more this price will slowly increase. It is definitely a spot I’m looking to take advantage of, especially if Luka’s shot is off and he needs the Unicorn to carry the team.
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Value | Isaiah Roby (5,000)– With Al Horford set to be out again, it should lead to minutes in the mid-twenties for Roby. He has shown when he gets the minutes he can be productive and in the last three, he has averaged a little over 1 fantasy point per minute. There is blowout potential that could lead to a few more minutes as well. I have been using Roby in his last three starts, and I will likely be using him again.
Fade | Domantas Sabonis (9,900)– The fade Sabonis call isn’t one I have made this year. In fact, I have probably had more exposure to Sabonis than any other player this season. He has a safe floor, but other than a 61 burger he dropped earlier in the season the ceiling at this price isn’t there like I want. I feel like I could take the savings with Porzingis or Grant and finish close to what Sabonis will finish with. I would rather find the extra $800 to get up to Kevin Durant.
Others I Like: John Collins, Lauri Markkanen
Centers
Top Play |Â Joel Embiid (10,100)– In this last matchup, Embiid went for 65 fantasy points. The Celtics don’t have anyone that can slow Embiid down. I expect him to continue to dominate in the paint and to get to the free-throw line. He has had one bad game this year and in the last 2 out of 3, he has scored 42 or more real-life points. You can look to Nikola Jokic, and I wouldn’t fault you for that. I would rather take the savings and roll with Embiid in this one.
Mid-tier |Â Clint Capela (8,300)– The last game with 27 points and 26 rebounds was impressive. What was impressive was that 20 of those were offensive rebounds. In the last three games, he has played at least 37 minutes. Those minutes have translated to averaging 62 fantasy points over his last three games. The big minutes could be because of how thin the Hawks have been. I think when they get some of those guys back he should still play minutes in the low 30s. He has proven to be too valuable and too productive to not have him on the court as much as they can. With Karl-Anthony Towns going to be out again, Capela should have his way on the boards again.
Value | Daniel Gafford (3,100)– The Bulls will be without Wendell Carter, and that should lead to Gafford starting. They could move Markkanen down to the five and play small ball, but either way, Gafford should still see solid minutes. For his price tag and the opportunity he will have, it wouldn’t take much for him to pay that price off.
Fade | Andre Drummond (9,400)- The days of locking Drummond in have come to an end. That is barring injuries. He played 26 minutes in a game that went to double overtime. The arrival of Jarrett Allen has lowered the value on Drummond. The Cavs want to see what they have in Allen and that could make Drummond expendable. For those reasons, you can’t trust Drummond right now.
Others I Like: Jakob Poeltl, Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic
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