Welcome back for another Friday night slate!! It’s a nine-game slate, that I like quite a bit as of now. From the way it’s looking right now, we don’t have a lot of value. Of course, it’s NBA DFS, and an hour before tip we’re likely to have the slate changing news from all around. As usual, I will base my information on the info I have right now. I don’t like to do the guessing game the night before.
Now, let’s see if we can’t add some more money to the account. We do have Valentine’s Day coming up and I’m sure your significant other would rather a nice dinner, and not some Red Baron pizza, or some fancy Ramen. She doesn’t want to hear, “well if the game didn’t blowout and Giannis played his full minutes, then we could afford to go out.” So, let’s see if we can help at least get Digiorno’s pizza.
Embed from Getty ImagesBe sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Guards
Top Play |Â Kyrie Irving ($9,100)- When the Harden trade news came out, I initially thought like everyone else, “well there’s only one basketball.” I will admit like many others, I was wrong about this. The Nets defense nobody was wrong about, but that’s another topic. In their defense, the big three have not let their offensive stats suffer. On any given night all three of the Nets’ top guys can score 50 plus fantasy points each.
The reason I like Kyrie over James Harden is the savings. With a $1,500 savings that can go a long way on a slate where there isn’t much value yet. In the last 9 out of 10 games, Kyrie has scored at least 42 fantasy points, and five of those have been right at 50 or more. This is a good price for Kyrie in what should be a competitive game, and with how bad the Nets defense has been, all three of the stars have to put up big numbers. So, lock and load Kyrie and take your floor of around 45 fantasy points in this matchup.
Mid-tier |Â Russell Westbrook ($9,000)- It’s not a mid-tier play, but I had trouble deciding between Russ and Kyrie. In the last two games, Russ has averaged 34 minutes per game and 61.75 fantasy points per game. In 8 out of 12 games he has played this year, he has been over 50 fantasy points. So there is basically a 66 percent chance Russ goes 6x or more at this price.
That makes him hard to pass up in all formats. On top of that, the Wizards’ offense is Russ and Bradley Beal, and in the last game against Miami, we saw them try to throw everyone and everything at Beal to slow him down. That was without Russ playing and it makes that scheme a lot easier. Now, when you add Russ to the mix it gives them both more room to work, and as hot as Beal has been the Heat will have to extend their defense and that opens up room for Russ to go to work. I love Russ and Kyrie about equal right now, so we’ll check the news to see if anything helps one of their cases even more.
Value |Theo Maledon ($5,000)- We already know Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill, or Lugentz Dort are all out. That will put Maledon back in the starting lineup. He has averaged right under 32 minutes per game over the last four and 26 fantasy points per game. Over the last four games, he has been around a .8 fantasy point per minute player. When you figure he’s likely to play around 32 minutes, that puts him at 25.6 fantasy points. On a slate where there doesn’t seem to be much value yet, I will gladly take Maledon for value.
Fade |Bradley Beal ($9,500)- It might seem crazy to fade the league scoring leader to this point, but for GPP, I like the fade. When you look at Beal’s numbers over the last couple of weeks, it’s easy to see the trend. That is when Russ is playing, Beal hasn’t scored above 50 fantasy points. I’m sure there will be some games that go against the trend, but he is losing a lot of usage and ball-handling duties. I think there are guys that are cheaper than Beal, that I can get the same type of numbers from on this slate.
Others I Like: Darius Garland (if no Sexton), Malik Beasley, Paul George
Embed from Getty ImagesForwards
Top Play |Â Kevin Durant ($9,600)- I think Giannis Antetokounmpo could be the best play on the slate, but I worry about the blowout. So, that puts me to KD and the savings from Giannis. He should be in a competitive game, and one they will need every bit of production he can muster if they’re going to get the win. There really isn’t much to say about KD, he averages 52.4 fantasy points per game and that is over 5x value at this price. We haven’t seen that close to 70 point game in a while and the Raptors present a good spot for it. The Raptors rank 30th against SF/PF, and in what should be a close game in a plus matchup, I think we could see the KD show.
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Mid-tier |Â Zion Williamson ($8,100)- The price on Zion is good. He has one of the highest floors in the league. We haven’t seen any of the ceiling games yet, but they will come at some point. At this price even if you don’t get the ceiling game, you’re going to likely get 40 plus and always a hot shooting night away from 60. I won’t spend much time on him though, if you want a safe 40 with upside, then play Zion.
Value |Norman Powell ($6,700)- With OG Anunoby set to miss another game, it will put Powell in the starting lineup again. In the last five games, he has played 29 minutes or more and scored at least 31 fantasy points in all five. Over his last three games, he has averaged 41 fantasy points. We have all heard about the defensive struggles of the Nets, and the points they’ve been giving up. I don’t think they’ve done anything to fix those problems yet, and I can see this being a high-scoring game. With that being said, I think we can get good value from Powell in this matchup.
Fade |Jaylen Brown ($7,600)- He is questionable, but even if he were healthy, I would fade this spot. If he does play, he could hit value, but I don’t think the upside is there in this matchup. The Clippers are good at defending the perimeter because they have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This game to me has the makings of a slow-paced and boring game. It definitely doesn’t make me want to play Brown when he is having knee issues. I will have zero exposure.
Others I Like: Darius Bazley, Jerami Grant, Miles Bridges, Domantas Sabonis
Centers
Top Play |Â Nikola Vucevic ($8,500)- I love this price and matchup for Vucevic. The one strategy I’ve relied on for years is to attack the Bulls with the big guys. That won’t be changing anytime soon, especially on this slate. He continues to get double-doubles each game and has 15 in 22 games. He averages 22.5 points per game and 11 rebounds per game. I can see a clear path for another double-double. When I’m looking at the Bulls roster right now, there isn’t anyone I can see slowing Vucevic down, and there isn’t anything slowing me down from loading the big man in my lineups.
Mid-tier |Â Bobby “Blowout” Portis ($5,400)- I know, I know this is ugly looking, but Portis is interesting in any game with blowout potential. That is exactly what we have in this one. The Bucks are double-digit favorites as of now, and to me, this has all the makings of an early blowout. In that case, we could see 20 plus minutes from Portis in a good matchup. With his ability to put up fantasy points in a hurry, I think we could see 35 or more if it does get out of hand.
Value |Chris Boucher ($4,500)- He hasn’t played more than 19 minutes in the last four games, and that has caused a big price decrease. They have been using him less in games where they need to go bigger, and that has lead to his minute decrease. The good news is this matchup with the Nets is one they seem to like Boucher in. We know the Nets interior defense has been terrible, so there is no worry of a big center presence. The Nets will likely use Jeff Green and DeAndre Jordan as their centers and that would be good matchups for Boucher. Now, this is a complete shot in the dark, but if it were to happen and you get Boucher playing close to 30 minutes at $4,500, he would be the best value on the slate.
Fade |Andre Drummond ($8,200)- It’s too hard to trust Drummond right now. You don’t know how many minutes you’re going to get from him and I can’t take that risk at this price. It will be hard for me to play Drummond for the rest of the year.
Others I Like: Thad Young, Deandre Ayton
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