Welcome back!! We have an 11 game slate on our hands for Friday. It’s one that has only four teams on a back-to-back, but of course it has some injury news to monitor. I mean would it be NBA DFS if it didn’t have injury news?? We all know the news we have now don’t mean anything either, because ten minutes before lock we will get news that changes the whole slate. So, we will operate with what we have available to us right now.
The one good thing is we’re getting to the point in the season where the minutes and rotations are more set in stone. We know teams are starting to get in form and that they’re really needing to get as many wins as they can. The early season blowouts are also starting to appear less and less and making for more competitive games. We know the competitive games bring more minutes for our guys, and we know minutes equal fantasy points, well unless you’re like Tony Snell or something.
Embed from Getty ImagesBe sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Guards
Top Play |Â Damian Lillard ($9,800)- The Blazers are on a back-to-back, but that’s usually not a concern with Dame. It’s hard not to play Dame when he is less than 10k, especially with the injuries the Blazers have. In his last 12 out of 16 games, he has scored 26 or more real-life points. He always gets a usage bump when CJ McCollum is out and that will continue for a few more games.
The one thing we know is that Dame will shoot from anywhere at any time and for the Blazers to win that’s what they need. I like the matchup for him and I look for him to get above the 26 real-life points mark again. I’m ready to watch Dame time and I’m ready to see that 60 burger again!! You should be able to safely load him into your lineups for this one.
Mid-tier |Â Russell Westbrook ($9,000)- The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal. That means Russ will have a ridiculously high-usage rate. He hasn’t been putting up big numbers lately, but this situation will be different. I don’t want to jinx it but it’s hard to see a way in which Russ doesn’t go for 50 plus fantasy points in this one.
The loss of Beal is taking 20 plus shots out of the lineup, it would be a safe bet to say that Russ does his part to take advantage of those attempts. He isn’t a mid-tier play, but in this situation, I feel like he is a good value play and one of my favorite plays in general.
Value | Payton Pritchard ($3,800)- With the Celtics on a back-to-back, I don’t look for Kemba Walker to play. If Kemba doesn’t play that would put Pritchard in line to start or at least see 25 plus minutes. We will have to monitor the news to see, but if no Kemba then Pritchard will be one of the best salary savers on the slate.
Fade | Lamelo Ball ($8,600)- We don’t know the status of Devonte Graham yet. In my opinion, whether Graham is in or out, I don’t want to play Lamelo. The price is high for a rookie that has hit 5x value in only 4 games at this price. The talent is undeniable, but there are safer plays on a big slate.
Others I Like: Cole Anthony (If he plays), Gary Trent Jr.
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Forwards
Top Play |Â Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800)- It’s Giannis in what should be a close and competitive game. The Jazz has been great this year, but in any game that I think Giannis will see 32 minutes or more, he is always in play. If you think for some reason he doesn’t get the minutes then I would look somewhere else. He has scored 57 or more fantasy points in 7 of his last 10 games and for the Bucks to beat the Jazz, they will need Giannis at his best and I think that’s what we get.
Mid-tier |Â Kyle Anderson ($6,000)- At this price, I think Anderson is a good value and cash play. He has scored 30 or more fantasy points in his last three games. The minutes have been higher lately and if it weren’t for a big lead, he would have played at least 30 minutes again. We know that Desmond Bane, De’Anthony Melton, and Brandon Clarke are all out. That will give some value to a lot of the Grizzlies guys, and I think Anderson has another solid game.
Value | John Konchar ($3,000)/Grayson Allen ($4,100)- With the injuries for the Grizzlies, it should make Konchar and Allen good value plays. I think Allen may end up starting and he would be the better value because of the minutes, but Konchar at the minimum salary won’t hurt you either. I would check the lineup news for this one, but both are in play.
Fade | DeMar DeRozan ($8,000)- I’m fading DeRozan because I can’t get him right, EVER!! He has been too up and down, and in the games that he looks like a smash play, he doesn’t go 3x value. If you like DeRozan, then by all means play him, I just can’t take the stress he comes with. You have to worry about him having a bad game and you never know when we will get Popped by Coach Popovich.
Others I Like: James Ennis, Saddiq Bey
Centers
Top Play |Â Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300)- In his first game back he played 31 minutes. The minutes will only go up and KAT will get better as they do. As long as he plays as planned, he should smash this salary. I like to play big guys against Chicago and Charlotte, and KAT is perfect for that. We know DeAngelo Russell is out so that is more usage for KAT. I look for KAT to play around 32-34 minutes, and I think we can see 50 plus fantasy points in this one.
Mid-tier |Â Rudy Gobert ($7,500)- We know night in and night out what we’re going to get out of Rudy. He is going to get his 35 to 40 fantasy points about every night. The matchup with Brook Lopez is one I think Rudy will take advantage of. I don’t see Lopez being able to keep Rudy off the glass on either end.
The Jazz have been shooting the three-ball at a high-rate and that opens up the inside for Rudy to work, and I can’t see anyone for the Bucks being able to stop that. If you need a safe 35 to 40 fantasy points with the upside for more, then Rudy is your guy on this one.
Value | Isaiah Stewart ($3,100)- The spotlight was on Stewart once Mason Plumlee was ruled out, and he didn’t disappoint. He played 31 minutes and scored 33 fantasy points. If Plumlee is out again, then Stewart becomes the best value play on the slate. We will have to monitor the situation because it will definitely change lineup construction if Stewart were to start again.
Fade | Andre Drummond ($8,200)- At this point, I think Drummond is always on my fade list. The best thing for him would be to get out of Cleveland as fast as he can. With the way his minutes have been, it’s too hard to trust right now. The Cavaliers have been playing Drummond and Jarrett Allen in the starting lineup together, and that hurts Drummond’s fantasy value too. When he and Allen are on the court together it causes Drummond to lose rebounds and shot attempts inside. So, I can’t trust his minutes and I don’t like the lineup situation either.
Others I Like: Enes Kanter, Al Horford
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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