Well, it is Friday!!! That means in the NBA DFS world we’re going to have a big slate as usual. We have a nice ten-game slate for this one. In all of the past years, after the All-Star break has always been one of my favorite times for NBA DFS. My start back hasn’t been as solid as normal, but tonight was a good one to get going again at least.
As always the information I have at my disposal right now is what I base this off of. We all know how things change the next day and completely shifts your lineup building process. Now, let’s get to it and hopefully keep the momentum rolling into Friday night.
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
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Guards
Top Play |Â Damian Lillard ($10,900)- It’s easy to want to go with James Harden or Luka Doncic as the top guard play, and I get it, but those guys will come with higher ownership and Dame seems to always come through for me. He has his partner in crime back on the court with him now too, even though not at full strength. It’s Dame though and he has carried Portland all year and in order to get a big W in this one, they will need it to be Dame time all night long. In his last game he scored 75 fantasy points and while that isn’t to be expected nightly, we do know what type of heaters he is capable of going on and as long as his shot is dropping it can come at any night. I like Dame as a ownership play as of right now against the other guys.
Mid-tier |Â Zach Lavine ($8,700)– I like this price for Lavine a lot!! He has been over 9k most of the year, so I feel like there is a little savings here with good upside. At this price he averages over 5x value on the year and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of his regular 50 burgers in this one. The Bulls will need everything they can get from Lavine and I believe he shows up big in the stat sheet.
Value | Tomas Satoransky ($4,400)- Over his last three games, he is averaging 29 fantast points per game. At this price with a good amount of pay up options, I will definitely go back to the well with Satoransky. He has been playing 26 minutes or more in the last three games and looks to be the starting Point Guard moving forward. He is good value and probably one of the best value plays on the slate.
Fade | Dejounte Murray ($7,300)- There isn’t a lot of DFS logic or numbers behind this pick. It’s just me not wanting to play Murray or really any Spurs players when I don’t have to. He is one of those guys that seems to always let me down and one I can’t get right at all.
Others I Like: De’Aaron Fox, Devin Booker, Jordan Poole
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Top Play |Â Jaylen Brown ($8,000)- There isn’t many high-priced guys at the forward position that I like on this slate. That leaves me coming to Brown. In the past I have not liked playing Brown when his price is up there, but I think he is worth it in this one and he should be able to hit value and some. He has been shooting the ball really well and has scored at least 24 real-life points in his last three games. I expect him to continue shooting and pouring in the points in this matchup. He has a safe floor with the chance of a much bigger game in this one, so I will have a lot of early interest in Brown.
Mid-tier |Â Larry Nance Jr. ($5,200)- We already know Kevin Love is out. That makes Nance one of the better value plays on the slate in my opinion. In his last two games, he has averaged 39 fantasy points. At this price if he scores 32 or more I would be good with that. I think he should be able to get in that low to mid 30 fantasy point area and I will be heavy on Nance from my early look.
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Value | Kent Bazemore ($3,400)- The Warriors will be without Steph Curry and it sounds like Kelly Oubre Jr. won’t play either. The team will also be without Eric Paschall and James Wiseman. That means Bazemore, Jordan Poole and guys from the Warriors is where all the cheap value is likely to come from. My bet is on Bazemore as much as I hate to actually say that, but when he is given minutes and opportunities he can usually provide with good value. I expect him to do that in this one.
Fade | Jimmy Butler ($9,500)- I know Jimmy Buckets has been having a solid year, but it’s a price issue for me. I don’t see the reason to pay this high for Butler on this slate.
Others I Like: Jerami Grant, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Centers
Top Play |Â Nikola Jokic ($10,600)- This one feels to easy to me. I’ve always lived by the strategy of attacking the Bulls with the big guys and there isn’t a much better big guy in the league than Jokic. I look for him to dominate the Bulls from the opening tip. In his last three games against Chicago, he is averaging 62 fantasy points per game. I think Jokic is one of the first guys to consider plugging in your lineups.
Mid-tier |Â Jakob Poeltl ($6,100)- I like the price tag and the matchup for Poeltl. He has had two consecutive double-doubles and has really taken advantage of his playing time as of late. In his last two games, he is averaging 41.5 fantasy points per game. That is almost 7x value at this price. There is a strong possibility he could see 40 plus again in this one and that would be a great value on this slate.
Value | Nicolas Claxton ($3,600)– He has played at least 16 minutes or more in six straight games and has taken over the backup center role for the Nets. In his last meeting against Orlando, he has 27 fantasy points in 15 minutes. He has shown the ability to score over 20 fantasy points in limited minutes. If he somehow ends up with close to 20 minutes or more in this one he should provide excellent value at this price
Fade | Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)- In his last three games against Miami he has scored 37 fantasy points or less. At this price tag that would sink your lineups quickly. I’m not saying that’s what he will do, but I also don’t see the need to pay the price for him on this slate.
Others I Like: Nikola Vucevic, Karl-Anthony Towns
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!
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