We have a much better Monday slate this week than we did last week. A nice sized 10-game slate is on the docket for tonight. As always, I’m writing this Sunday night, there will be news that I won’t have yet. If you haven’t check out the spreadsheet yet, make sure you do. The link is below.
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Guards
Top Play | Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,700 vs. DEN
The Mavericks were blown out the other night, limiting Doncic’s scoring output, but tonight he get a juicy matchup abasing the Nuggets team he scored 77.3 DK points against just a few short weeks ago, albeit in an overtime game. The Nuggets give up the seventh most DK points to point guards on the season.
Mid-tier | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) $8,100 @ POR
After back-to-back 40-plus DK point games, his price has only risen $200, and tonight he gets a matchup with the Blazers that give up the fourth-most points to point guards. He has also played 37 of more minutes in three of his last four games.
Value | Jalen Brunson (DAL) $4,700 vs. DEN
Before Saturday’s blowout loss to the Rockets, Brunson had two back-to-back games of 28 or more DK points, but in the loss to Houston only had 18. That’s a blessing in disguise as his price didn’t go up as it would had if he had scored 28-plus again. The silver lining is in all three of those games he had over 30 minutes, something he had only done once all season before this there game stretch. At $4,700, with 30 point upside, Brunson will make a lot of my lineups.
Fade | James Harden (HOU) $10,200 vs. MIA
I’ve decided that unless one of their big-three are out, or until their prices come down, I will not be playing Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving nor James Harden. It’s just too hard to tell which one is going to have the big game.
Others I Like
- Steph Curry $9,200 vs. MIN
- LaMelo Ball $6,900 @ ORL
- Kendrink Nunn $6,100 @ BKN
Forwards
Top Play | Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,200 @ CLE
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The Cavaliers give up the fourth-most DK points to “Post Bigs” (via Rotogrinders) on the season. It also helps that he is sub-10k after scoring 55.5 DK points in limited minutes on Saturday due to the blowout of the Chicago Bulls.
Mid-tier | Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) $8,200 vs. DEN
Zingis has put up three-straight 40-plus DK point games, with one of them going over 50. He has also seen 30-minutes in four-straight contests. Needless to say, he seems to be recovered from his knee injury. After an injury-management day on Saturday — a game in which the Mavs got blown out — Zingis will be a full-go, albeit in a tough matchup.
Value | Yuta Watanabe (TOR) $3,000 @ IND
This is only a viable play if Pascal Siakam is ruled out today, after not playing in Sunday’s game due to knee swelling. Without Siakam yesterday, Watanabe played 21 minutes and put up 19.5 DK points. At $3,000, he is an easy value play for tonight’s slate.
Fade | Jayson Tatum $8,900/Jaylen Brown $8,500 (BOS) @ CHI
Jayson Tatum is expected to return and play for the first time since January 8. I’d assume the Celtics won’t give him a full workload straight off the bat, which is why I’ll fade him. However, Tatum is likely to play enough that it will take away some scoring opportunities from Jaylen Brown, which at $8,500, is just a little too expensive for me.
Others I Like
- Gordon Hayward $7,300 @ ORL
Centers
Top Play | Nikola Vucevic (ORL) $8,700 vs. CHA
Vucevic being my top play is more about the other players at center, either; I’ve already written them up in this column (Anthony Davis); they are already ruled out (Karl-Anthony Towns); or I just don’t like the matchup tonight (see my Fade for centers). Vuc has four double-doubles in his last five games, and it’s a pretty good bet he gets another one tonight.
Mid-tier | Zion Williamson (NO) $7,900 vs. SA
Only the Nets give up more DK points to “versatile bigs” than do the Spurs (via Rotogrinders). Williamson, though he hasn’t shown a high-ceiling yet this season, has been a solid 40-plus DK scorer in the month of January.
Value | James Wiseman (GSW) $5,400 vs. MIN
I had a hard time finding value at center that I liked, and truth be told, I don’t love Wiseman in a middle of the road matchup. But, forced to choose a player sub-5.5k, Wiseman would be my go to.
Fade | Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,800 vs. LAL
The Lakers are one of the best teams when it comes to defending bigs, which has a lot to do with Anthony Davis. This game will be no different. Could Drummond have a big game, sure, do I wanna risk $8,800 to find out? No.
Others I Like
- Bam Adebayo $8,500 @ BKN
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