We’ve got ourselves another HUGE Wednesday slate lined up. Tonight is really going to boil down to which of the pay-up spots you decide to invest in and where the value opens up with a number of teams on back-to-backs and others navigating the COVID protocols.
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Guards
Top Play | Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors PG | $9,300
Steph Curry is always always in play for me at the high-end of the guard position. He is routinely under-owned (especially on large slates like tonight) and his pricing always feels a bit too low given his 70-pt upside. Tonight he heads into a matchup against a Timberwolves team that is absolutely hemorrhaging points to the PG position, allowing more 3pt makes than any other team in the league. I’m going to have a TON of Steph tonight.
Mid-tier | Jeremy Lamb | Indiana Pacers SG/SF| $5,100
This is one where we need to watch injury news closely. Jeremy Lamb has stepped into a more significant role in his 4 games since returning from injury and it looks like Sabonis is on the wrong side of questionable for tonight’s game against the Hornets. Even with injuries breaking in his favor, Lamb is under-priced for his high 20’s minutes and 35 pt upside. If Sabonis does miss, Lamb becomes one of my favorite plays of the night.
Value |Darius Garland | Cleveland Cavaliers PG | $4,600
Darius Garland has been on a minutes restriction since his return from a shoulder injury late last week and he is priced as such. The expectation tonight, however, is that he’ll see closer to his usual complement of minutes and $4,600 is simply too cheap if he does. Garland sets up as one of the better values on tonight’s slate and his 50-point upside makes him a really interesting tournament play.
Fade | James Harden | Brooklyn Nets PG/SG | $10,100
As always, I’m fading the Brooklyn guys. They’re simply too expensive given how much volatility there is in their usage night in and night out. It is anyone’s guess which of the Brooklyn Big 3 is going for 70 and which is going to be left out and those are exactly the situations I look to avoid. If I’m spending up at Guard, I’ll drop the extra couple dollars and roster Luka tonight.
Forwards
Embed from Getty ImagesTop Play | Jason Tatum | Boston Celtics SF/PF | $8,700
Jason Tatum is simply too cheap here. We typically see a healthy Tatum in the mid-to-upper $9k range so I’m jumping all over this discount. He returned from his health/safety protocol absence against Charlotte and immediately stepped back into 31 minutes and 21 shot attempts. I expect that role to continue to expand in this very favorable spot against San Antonio, locking him into my core build.
Mid-tier | Aaron Gordon | Orlando Magic PG/SF | $7,700
I love Aaron Gordon in tonight’s spot. He’s scored over 39 points in 4 straight games and is consistently averaging mid-30’s minutes. Tonight he walks into a matchup against the Sacramento Kings who are BY FAR the worst team in defensive efficiency and, at $7.7k, he brings a 60+ point upside that could break this very busy slate.
Value | Jae Crowder | Phoenix Suns SF/PF | $4,900
Oddly enough, Jae Crowder was a huge beneficiary of Devin Booker’s absence last time out; putting up a 21/7/3/1 line against Denver. Booker has already been ruled out tonight and I expect to see another nice usage increase for Crowder. He’ll need to continue his hot streak from behind the arc to replicate his 38 fantasy point outing and has a good look at doing just that against this Thunder team that is the 5th most favorable matchup against his position.
Fade | Brandon Ingram | New Orleans Pelicans SF/PF | $8,000
Ingram just hasn’t had one of those explosive games lately. His shot attempts have been steadily decreasing and he isn’t contributing boards or dimes like he was earlier in the season. I look at this similarly to the Brooklyn situation where the usage volatility makes it hard for me to invest at this price tag.
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Others I Like
Centers
Embed from Getty ImagesTop Play | Clint Capela | Atlanta Hawks C | $9,100
The point where Capela delivering 13 points and18 rebounds is categorized as is your “down” game, is the point where I’m happily investing $9.1k in that player. We do have to watch the news closely as Capela just returned from injury and tonight’s game is the 2nd half of a back to back but so far as he’s a go, I’m firing up Capela everywhere. All season we’ve been targeting this Brooklyn matchup for our Centers, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to the position and playing 4th fastest pace in the league. Lock in Clint for a double-double and look for him to reach closer to his 60-point upside tonight!
Mid-tier | Marvin Bagley | Sacramento Kings PF/C | $5,700
Two things drive me toward playing Bags tonight. The first is that I’m going to have a lot of Orlando in my core build and Bagley might be my favorite player to run back on the Kings’ side of the ball. The second is his opportunity. Bags has averaged 32 minutes over these 10 games and has flashed 45 pt upside twice in that window of time. All of this sitting at $5.7k is just too good for me to pass up.
Fade | Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets C | $10,500
Not that I’m fading Joker outright, but I’m definitely going to be underweight on the field with him tonight. The Center position is absolutely loaded tonight and there are a number of other plays, namely Luka, that I’ll be firing up if I’m going to spend to this extent. He very well could have a huge night, but I won’t have much of him if he does.
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