Welcome to my DFS NBA Draftkings Monday Column. As usual, this article was written Sunday night, so some things may have changed. Be sure to check the spreadsheet around 5pm today. We have a nice 10-game slate to work with today, good luck…
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Spreadsheet with projections. You can find it here.
Guards
Top Play |Â Luka Doncic (DAL) $10,800 vs. PHO
Rotogrinders does their defensive versus position stat different than most sites. One of their “positions” is Distributor, which Doncic would likely fall under. The Suns are dead last in points allowed to Distributors, in fact, they are nearly nine ppg worse than the second place team.To put that into perspective, that same nine point difference would be the difference between the second-worst team and the seventh-worst. Yikes.
Mid-tier |Â Eric Bledsoe (NO) $6,000 vs. SAC
The Kings give up the sixth-most points to point guards, and in terms of overall Defensive Rating, they are the worst by far at 118 points allowed per 100 possessions. That’s 3 points worse than the second-worst team, the Trailblazers. Bledsoe seems to be finding his place on this team as he has four straight double-digit scoring games. His price tag still gives you good value if he can get close to that 40 DK point plateau.
Value | Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NO) $4,800 vs. SAC
A little more risky than Bledsoe, but for all the same reason, NAW is a good punt at $4,800.
Fade | Devin Booker (PHO) $8,300 @ DAL
Dallas gives up the sixth-fewest points to shooting guards, not to mention, these two teams play at a slower pace, both under 100 possessions per 48 minutes, meaning this game could be low scoring.
Others I Like
- Damian Lillard $10,700 @ MIL
- Chris Paul $8,200 @ DAL
- Ja Morant $7,600 @ SA
Forwards
Top Play |Â Jimmy Butler (MIA) $8,400 vs. CHA
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Butler wasted no time in his first game back, putting up 50-plus DK points against the Kings. The Hornets are middle of the pack against small forwards in terms points allowed, in fact, I don’t have many stats that scream, “Play Jimmy Butler”, other than I think he is still under-priced and could easily put up another 50 point game.
Mid-tier |Â Zion Williamson (NO) $7,900 vs. SAC
I’ll be picking on the Kings a lot tonight. Zion has not shown us a huge ceiling yet this season, but his floor may be one of the highest in the league. Over his last 11 games, only twice did he score fewer than 40 DK points, and in one of those games he had 39. If ever he was going to put up a huge 55-plus point game, this would be the one.
Value | Jae’Sean Tate (HOU) $4,800 @ OKC
Tate has started six-straight, but up until his game on Saturday, hadn’t really played well. Tonight he gets a good matchup with the Thunder who rank 24th in defensive rating, and with both teams playing at a relatively high pace, there should be plenty of possessions for Tate to put up some fantasy points.
Fade | Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,800 @ ATL
His price jumped a little too much for me after putting up 53 on Boston Saturday. He hasn’t shown the huge upside that always made Davis highly owned in DFS. Not to mention, he is listed as questionable, and I know he played through it on Saturday and played well, if makes me a little nervous.
Others I Like
- Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,000 vs. POR
- Brandon Ingram $8,200 vs. SAC
Centers
Top Play |Â Nikola Jokic (DEN) $10,900 vs. DET
I tried to convince myself that Jokic wasn’t the Top Play tonight, but I just couldn’t do it. Hey gets a Pistons team giving up the fourth-most DK points to centers and the sixth-most rebounds.
Mid-tier |Â Andre Drummond (CLE) $8,600 vs. MIN
Andre Drummond is currently playing while I write this and he looked good in the first half, and if he plays tonight, I like him again in this plus matchup. There is some trepidation however that they may rest him on the second game of a back-to-back, in which case, I play the next guy on this list…
Value | Jarrett Allen (CLE) $5,500 vs. MIN
The Timberwolves give up the most fantasy points to centers, and there is an outside chance that Drummond does not play. If Drummond does play, I don’t like Allen as much.
Fade | Julius Randle (NY) $9,200 @ CHI
The Bulls give up the fifth-fewest points to centers, and I know Randle isn’t a typical center, but at $9,200, I’d rather go up to Adebayo at $9,400 or pay down and get Drummond.
Others I Like
- Bam Adebayo (MIA) $9,400 vs. CHA
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