Introduction
Welcome back! NBA season is back tonight and I can’t wait to get started. I originally wasn’t going to make a spreadsheet for tonight because they sheet doesn’t do quite as well on small slates. However, I’m working on some changes to make it better on small slates by having the grades on a curve. It’ll take some tweaking as we continue through the season, but hopefully, it will help it do better on the two and three-game slates.
Now, before I give you the link, there are a few things I want to mention about the sheet. Those that have used it before might already know some of these things, but there are some other important things to know even for the returning users.
The “Grades” are NOT Projections
The grades are in no way a projection of how many points a player will get. They are number grades based on a bunch of different factors including; pace, usage, average minutes, average points, Defense vs Position (DvP), Vegas Over/Under, Vegas spread, and a few other key metrics. Each metric is assigned a number grade based on league averages and they are weighted by importance. For example, average points are more important than DvP and will be weighted heavier.
The Final grade, the one you see on the sheet, is all the grades added together and averaged out.
Points and Minutes are Based on Projections, not Actuals (yet)
Because there was so much movement in the NBA this season, basing the sheet off last year’s averages would not make sense. I’m using projections from DailyFantasyNerd.com (sign up with that link for a free 7-day trial).
Once every team has at least five games under their belt, the sheet will start using actuals, not projections. The only exception to using actuals is when a player is expected to see an increased role because of an injury or planned rest days. In that case, I will again use projections.
Ignore the “Hot” and “Cold” Tags for Now
The hot and cold tags, once I start using actuals, will quickly let you find players that have been outperforming or underperforming based on their current price. To determine “Hot” and “Cold” I use a metric that I came up with called CvP, or Cost vs Production. Without giving you a math lesson, I basically took 250 50/50 contests that I played in and figured out an average total score you needed to cash, and from there I figured out how much every point was worth based on that number. So, if a player is exceeding that “price per point” total over his last five games, he gets the “Hot” tag and vice-versa for the “Cold” tag.
For now, the hot and cold tags are being based on projections, so they aren’t accurate.
Optimized Lineups
I’m going to eventually upload a video on how to use these grades to build optimized lineups using Rotogrinders or DailyFantasyNerd optimizers. What you need to know for these lineups right now are;
- Ignore the “projected” total points for the lineup. Because my “grades” aren’t projections, you’re basically building the highest “graded” lineup not the highest in points.
- I will attempt to put up an optimized lineup with the spreadsheet, but I won’t be able to do it every time.
- Don’t use these grades exclusively. Sometimes you still need some human in intuition. A players grade can be affected by one big game for example.
Click next to get the spreadsheet…
NBA FanDuel Lineup Builder Spreadsheet 10/17
Click here to access the sheet: FanDuel Spreadsheet 10/17
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