Okay, yesterday’s sheet did NOT do well at all. It was the first time this season that the post optimizer was below a 60% hit rate. That’s okay, nothing can be perfect all of the time.
With that said, I went ahead and started using “real” averages for this season and I’m no longer using projections. Normally I need at least five games into the season before I start using live averages, but some of DFN’s projections weren’t making sense to me.
You will start to notice more “Hot” and “Cold” tags now with the real averages being used. When I was using projections, those columns weren’t accurate. Keep in mind, because we are only three games in and I’m using those averages, one big game can affect a players grade since it will affect his three-game average, so be wary of that.
Also, I have heard a lot of people blindly entering the optimized lineups into contests. I don’t recommend doing that. Use them only as a guide, but combined the spreadsheet with your own research and intuition to build your lineups. The spreadsheet biggest strength is finding value, not pointing out the studs. Yes, it will show you the studs that have the best “situations”, but super-star players can go off at any time.
Here is today’s spreadsheet and below is my breakdown…
NBA Fanduel Spreadsheet 10/24/17
The Blazers/Pelicans game have four of the top six plays, but it’ll be hard to stack that game unless you can find some good value.- Nikola Vucevic owns the Nets and has been playing out of his mind lately. He might be priced a little too high for me but is still a good play.
- I really like Kristaps Porzingis as an alternate to Anthony Davis. Has a “two thumbs up” matchup and has been playing really well to start the season.
- There is only one PG with a “Best” grade, but I like D’Angelo Russell and Jrue Holiday as good alternatives for lower price tags.
- Ian Clark is the top PG value, but I personally like D.J. Augustin in a great matchup. His price has jumped quite a bit, thus the “Cold” tag, but against the Nets he can still hit cash game value.
- I don’t really like Marcus smart is he plays but if he is out, I like Terry Rozier. Smart isn’t a bad play, I’m just afraid he will be limited.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. is going to have that breakout game eventually. He is being paid too much and isn’t shy about shooting, his $4,700 price tag in a good matchup is something to consider. If Marcus Smart plays, downgrade THJ as I expect Smart to be on him and Smart is a plus defender.
- DeMarre Carroll has been playing very well and has a great matchup. He is underpriced for his production.
- Al-Farouq Aminu is one of those players I mentioned in the open that his grade is being inflated by one good game. His 44.2 FanDuel point game sandwiched in between two mediocre games has made his grade look better then it is. With that said, this will be a high paced game with lots of points, his price tag makes him an interesting GPP play.
- Domas Sabonis is another player being affected by one big game, and he gets a tough Timberwolves defense. Don’t chase his 39.4 FanDuel points from his last game
- Robin Lopez has apparently learned how to play offense after all these years. I was surprised to see him ranked so high because I hadn’t even considered him. It’s a small sample size, but he will have Kevin Love guarding him tonight and Love is not a good defender.
- Ed Davis is an interesting GPP play at $4,000. He will be needed to play more minutes than normal due to the size of the Pelicans. It could result in a big game for him.
Good Luck tonight!
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