Buffalo Bills (-6)
Defensive DVOA
- Overall: 16th
- vs. Pass: 15th
- vs. Run: 17th
Points Allowed by Position
- vs. QB: 13th
- vs. RB: 18th
- vs. WR: 10th
- vs. TE: 14th
Vegas Total: 49
Implied Total: 27.5
Adjusted Sack Rate: 12th
Top Plays
QB Josh Allen $7,200
WR Stefon Diggs $7,900
WR Gabe Davis $4,000
Bills DEF $3,000
Denver Broncos (+6)
Defensive DVOA
- Overall: 13th
- vs. Pass: 8th
- vs. Run 25th
Points Allowed by Position
- Vs. QB: 25th
- vs RB: 16th
- vs. WR: 11th
- vs. TE: 28th
Vegas Total: 49
Implied Total: 21.5
Adjusted Sack Rate: 5th
Top Plays
WR Jerry Jeudy $3,900
TE Noah Fant $3,800
Game Script
This is game the Bills should win easily, which normally that would make the running backs from the favored team a good play. However, the Bills have yet to commit to Zach Moss nor Devin Singletary, so I have no interest in either one. On the flip side, both Broncos running backs are questionable, but even if they play, their near 50/50 split in carries makes neither one very appealing. However, if they both miss this game then Royce Freeman becomes an interesting value at $4,000.
The easy stack, and probably a popular one, is Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs. A lesser owned stack could be with Gabe Davis, who actually leads all Bills wide receivers in touchdowns despite playing limited snaps all year. Davis will assume the No. 3 WR spot again this week with John Brown already ruled out.
There isn’t much on the Broncos side that I like, but forced to choose, I want Jeudy at his price over the more expensive Tim Patrick. Noah Fant is always in play at tight end, and his price isn’t too high that you can’t pay up for him if you want. On a two game slate, you will need one of the Broncos low-owed players to win a tournament, but good luck picking the right one.
Carolina Panthers (+8.5)
Defensive DVOA
- Overall: 27th
- vs. Pass: 27th
- vs. Run: 19th
Points Allowed by Position
- vs. QB: 7th
- vs. RB: 28th
- vs. WR: 5th
- vs. TE: 6th
Vegas Total: 51.5
Adjusted Sack Rate: 27th
Top Plays
Aaron Rodgers $7,800
Aaron Jones $7,300
Devante Adams $9,400
Allen Lazard $4,100
Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
Defensive DVOA
- Overall: 20th
- vs. Pass: 19th
- vs. Run: 22nd
Points Allowed by Position
- vs. QB: 24th
- vs. RB: 25th
- vs. WR: 17th
- vs. TE: 25th
Vegas Total: 51.5
Adjusted Sack Rate: 10th
Top Plays
RB Mike Davis $6,500
WR Curtis Samuel $4,800
The Packers are heavily favored in this one, which makes me want all the Aaron Jones I can get. Adams is a very expensive player on a two game slate, and that makes him a fade candidate. However, he will also be one of the highest owned players, so if you fade him and he goes off, your day is done. I like Allen Lazard at a much cheaper price to stack with Rodgers.
On the other side, who knows which WR gets the points this week. This group has become the Steelers-lite in the receiving corps, good luck picking the right guy each week. I went with Samuels as the cheapest of the three. Christian McCaffrey is not expected to play, meaning that Davis is once again “the guy” in the backfield.
Stacking Packers will be the chalk on this slate, and for good reason, it will be the value guys that make or break you on this slate. As always, on a two-game slate, don’t play a ton of lineups, the ROI just isn’t good enough cause you’re going to tie with 30 other people. stick to small single-entry contests, and don’t play cash games.
