Ladies and gentlemen, football is back! Let’s just hope it stays. Week 1 was already one of the hardest weeks to figure out for DFS, but throw in an offseason like the one we just had, and it’s damn near impossible. But, we love it and we only get 17 weeks of it, let’s make the most of it.
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Now to the advice…
| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
*note* Main slate only
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Josh Allen (BUF) $6,500 vs. NYJ
There are a few things I look for in my “Week 1” QB. One, he needs to be on the same team from the year before and in the same offense with the same coaches. Two, they need to be a running QB. And three, playing a defense that looks bad on paper. Allen checks the first two of those without question and with the opt-out of LB CJ Mosley and the trade of S Jamal Adams, I think this Jets defense is going to be the worst in the AFC East…yes, worse than the Dolphins.
Deep Threat | Kyler Murray (ARI) $6,400 @ SF
Murray checks two of my boxes and he is on the road, but he had two good games against this defense last year and now he has DeAndre Hopkins. His ceiling is a little higher than Josh Allen’s, but his floor is much lower.
Hail Mary | Cam Newton (CAR) $6,100 vs. MIA
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Newton is such a wildcard, but one I think is worth taking a shot on. He checks two boxes, running QB and bad defense (though I think the Dolphins are improved), and he is at home. However, who knows how Bill Belichick plans to use him? For all we know, Newton hands off to Sony Michel 35-to-40 times and barely throws a pass. But visions of him being their goal-line back and throwing deep bombs to N’Keal Harry are swirling in my head.
Missed Tackle | Lamar Jackson (BAL) $8,100 vs. CLE
Yes, Jackson checks all the boxes, but he is also $8,100 — a full $1,100 more than the No. 2 priced QB, Russell Wilson. Jackson is a tournament play for sure, but not one I will have heavy exposure too. Not to mention, who do you stack him with? Mark Andrews is an expensive TE and Hollywood Brown had games where he disappeared last year.
Others I like:
- Matt Ryan $6,700
Running Backs
Explosive Play | Dalvin Cook (MIN) $7,900 vs. GB
In the only game he played against the Packers last year, Cook had 154 yards on the ground, averaged over 7 yards per carry, and had a TD. It was his best game of the season and the Vikings will attempt to get Cook going again in this game. Cook is also over $2,000 cheaper than Christian McCaffery who is priced at 10k.
Deep Threat | Austin Ekeler (LAC) $7,000 @ CIN
The Bengals defense was terrible last year, especially against the run. Ekeler has this backfield to himself and we saw what he was able to do last season when Melvin Gordon was holding out. Not to mention, the Bengals could struggle against this stout Chargers defense — especially with a rookie QB under center for the Bengals. That could lead to a conservative game script for the Chargers that will include a lot of running.
Hail Mary | Chris Thompson (JAX) $4,000 vs IND
Who knows who carries the load in the running game after the release of Leonard Fournette. Will Ryquell Armstead clear COVID protocol in time? Is it going to be Devine Ozigbo? Or maybe the rookie James Robinson? Well, one thing is for sure, the passing down running back will be Chris Thompson, and the Jags figure to be down in this game. New offensive coordinator Jay Gruden used Thompson a lot in Washington, as long as he can stay healthy, he should crush his value at a mere $4k.
**Update** Since writing this, Antonio Gibson is a good choice in the same price range, but he will likely be the chalk.
Missed Tackle | Todd Gurley (ATL) $6,100 vs. SEA
Not touching Gurley Week 1. I want to see if he is healthy first.
Others I like:
- Alvin Kamara $7,200
- Miles Sanders $6,300
- Tarik Cohen $4,900
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | Michael Thomas (NO) $9,000 vs. TB
This is one of the highest over/unders on the slate and I want to get some exposure. Unfortunately, exposure is expensive. Drew Brees, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans…the list goes on with high-priced players in this game. On the Bucs side of the ball, there are too many unknowns. Who is Tom Brady going to favor in the passing game? Which running back will carry the load? Is Gronk just a red zone TE or is he going to play most of the snaps? So, give me the closest thing to a guarantee you will ever have in daily fantasy. Michael Thomas. In two games against the Bucs last season, Thomas had 19 receptions, 296 yards, and three TDs. He is pretty good…
Deep Threat | Devante Adams (GB) $7,300 @ MIN
Adams’ had a down year due in most part to injuries, but his per-game stats were nearly identical to his previous season when he finished as the best WR in fantasy. His TDs were the only thing that wasn’t at quite the same pace, but he is still an elite level WR with an elite QB that loves to target him.
Hail Mary | N’Keal Harry (NE) $4,400 vs. MIA
I see a possible game-stack here, Newton with Harry and run it back with Devante Parker on the other side. We know Cam Newton likes to throw to those big bodies WRs like Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin. Harry is built like those guys but is way more athletic. Combined that with a matchup against the lowly Dolphins, and I see another potential Week 1 value.
Missed Tackle | Stefon Diggs (MIN) $6,400 vs. NYJ
New team. Running offense. Won’t be playing from behind against the Jets. My reasons to not like Diggs. With that said, he can be a low-owned stack with Josh Allen and I wouldn’t hate it.
Others I like:
- Allen Robinson $6,500
- Chris Godwin $7,100
- Keenan Allen $6,400
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | George Kittle (SF) $7,200 vs. ARI
This has been a mantra for years in DFS, “Play tight ends against the Cardinals.” When that tight end is on a team with a plethora of WR injuries, you really need to take a look at him. When that tight end is Kittle, you lock him in.
Deep Threat | Hayden Hurst (ATL) $4,300 vs. SEA
Who knows how Hurst will fit in, but if he gets anywhere near the volume Austin Hooper did in this offense last season, sign me up. Especially at 4.3k.
Hail Mary | Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) $3,100 vs. GB
ISJ has been my sleeper pick all off-season. He could be the second-highest targetted player on the Vikings after Adam Thielen. Justin Jefferson is a rookie playing the slot, Bisi Johnson is the other WR on the outside and he doesn’t scare me, and Kyle Rudolph is a good tight end but doesn’t offer the same athletic ability as ISJ.
Missed Tackle | Austin Hooper (CLE) $5,100 @ BAL
New team. Baker Mayfield hasn’t shown he likes to throw to TEs, and the Ravens defense is good against the TE position.
Others I like:
- Rob Gronkowski $4,900
Defense
Explosive Play | Bills $3,700 vs. NYJ
Favorites at home and the Jets don’t scare anyone.
Deep Threat | Colts $3,000 @ JAX
I have the Colts in my Top 5 defenses this season and they get a Jacksonville team that seems to be in tank mode already.
Hail Mary | Washington Football Team $2,000 vs. PHI
Say what you will about the lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball for Washington, but you can’t knock the talent they have on defense. Injuries to the Eagles offensive line could spell trouble for Carson Wentz and Miles Sanders.
Missed Tackle | Patriots $3,200 vs. MIA
They have some pretty big holes in that defense from players opting out. They’ll still be good, but I’ll pass on them in Week 1.
Others I like:None
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