DFS NFL FanDuel/DraftKings Lineup Advice Week 4 (9/29/19)
Last week my calls were feast or famine. I had guys like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen and Christian McCaffery, but I also had guys like Sony Michel, Vance McDonald and Calvin Ridley. Luckily Evans, Allen and McCaffery were so good, it didn’t matter and I was still able to end the week on the plus side, but it could have been much better.
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| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
*note* Prices are based on DraftKings, but most plays will crossover to FanDuel as well
*note* Main slate only
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Patrick Mahomes (KC) $7,500 @ DET
Mahomes is the only top-tier option worth paying up for this week as he takes on a Detriot team that has actually played well on defense rankings 10th overall, vs. the pass and vs. the run — but it’s Mahomes, it doesn’t matter who the defense is.
Deep Threat | Russell Wilson (SEA) $6,100 @ ARI
Wilson may be my favorite play at QB this weekend. He plays the Cardinals, who we know play fast, giving the opposing team more possessions per game, the over/under is decently high at 48 and Wilson has 50 and 35 pass attempts in each of the last two games. My biggest issue with Wilson had always been he doesn’t throw the ball enough to be worth it, but I’ll take 50 pass attempts from one of the more efficient QBs in the history of the NFL. For what it’s worth, the Cardinals are ranked 23rd in pass DVOA.
Hail Mary | Daniel Jones (NYG) $5,300 vs. WAS
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The Redskins are ranked 28th in overall DVOA and 27th vs. the pass. Jones also showed some running ability last week that will help raise his floor in DFS. The over/under is 49.5 and I could see this game being a shootout despite the terrible offenses these two teams have been so far this season.
Missed Tackle | Jared Goff (LAR) $6,300 vs. TB
Goff hasn’t had the big games in DFS like he was last year and he is averaging only 15.9 DK points per game. With Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray both priced lower than Goff, and the fact the Bucs defense has been pretty good this year, I won’t own any Goff this week.
Others I like: Kyler Murray $6,000, Matthew Stafford $5,500
Running Backs
Explosive Play | Christian McCaffery (CAR) $8,800 @ HOU
I don’t think I need to tell you why McCaffery is an explosive play this weekend. The Texans are a middle of the road defense that will struggle to contain CMC this week.
Deep Threat | David Johnson (ARI) $6,800 vs. SEA
This game has a lot of stackable players with an over/under of 48 and the Cardinals, while good at stopping the run (6th in rush DVOA), they struggle to defend the RBs that can catch out of the backfield, ranking 26th DVOA vs. the RB in the passing game. They give up an average of 7.7 receptions and 61.7 yards to running backs.
Hail Mary | Kenyan Drake (MIA) $4,200 vs. LAC
Drake’s usage in both the passing game and running game last week was encouraging. He rushed the ball 12 times and was targeted six times. In another game that the Dolphins figure to be down in, Rosen seems to look Drake’s way more than gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick did. Look for that to continue. The Chargers have been known to give up some big plays this year, and Drake is the best candidate on the Dolphins to break one.
Missed Tackle | Dalvin Cook (MIN) $8,300 @ CHI
Fading Cook has more to do with the matchup and the players around his price range. He has a bad matchup with the Bears and with McCaffery only $500 more or Ekeler $300 less, I prefer them over Cook this week.
Others I like: Austin Ekeler $8,000, Marlon Mack $6,100, Chris Carson $5,700
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | Keenan Allen (LAC) $7,600 @ MIA
Take a look at this WOPR chart which uses target share and air yards market share to show efficiency for wide receivers.
Take a look all the way up there in the right-hand corner. That’s how much better Allen has been than all other receivers this year. Oh, and did I mention he plays the Dolphins?
Deep Threat | Mike Evans (TB) $7,100 vs. TB
Chris Godwin is looking more and more doubtful to play as we head into the weekend, leaving Evans, Justin Watson and Bershad Perriman as the top three WRs this week. Evan’s target share, big-play ability and his relatively cheap price should make him an elite play this weekend, even against a tough Rams secondary.
Hail Mary | Curtis Samuel (CAR) $4,600 @ HOU
Samuel appeared to be Kyle Allen’s receiver of choice last week. Very small sample size, but worth noting as the Texans rank 24th in DVOA vs. the No. 2 WR. And, if you view Samuel as the No. 1 WR, they are ranked 21st — fellow WR D.J. Moore could also be in play.
Missed Tackle | Odell Beckham Jr. $7,300 @ BAL
The Browns offensive line can’t protect Baker Mayfield and he and OBJ just don’t seem to be on the same yet. Couple that with an angry Ravens defense coming home after a loss in Kansas City, I want no part of this passing game.
Others I like: Cooper Kupp $6,500, Tyler Lockett $6,300, Kenny Golladay $5,900
Tight Ends
Explosive Play | Evan Engram (NYG) $5,700 vs. WAS
Yes, Kelce is on the slate, and yes, he is a good play as always, but for $1,500 less you can have Engram, who averages more fantasy points per game with a much better matchup. Yes, please.
Deep Threat | Â Austin Hooper (ATL) $4,300 vs. TEN
The Titans are rank 20th in DVOA vs. the TE position so far this year and Hooper has received no fewer than six targets all season. At $4,300, he is a steal.
Hail Mary | Will Dissly (SEA) $3,600 @ ARI
Take a look at these stat lines:
- Six receptions on nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown
- Eight receptions on nine targets for 112 yards and a touchdown
- Six receptions on seven targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns
Those are the stat lines of T.J. Hockenson in Week 1, Mark Andrews in Week 2, and Greg Olsen in Week 3 all vs. this Cardinals defense. The Seahawks traded away TE Nick Vannett, leaving Dissly as the only pass catching TE on the roster. He is a great GPP stack option with Wilson.
Missed Tackle | Mark Andrews (BAL) $5,000 vs. CLE
He is still missing practices and he didn’t look healthy despite playing last week.
Others I like: Darren Waller $5,200
Defense
Explosive Play | Patriots @ BUF $3,700
Patriots have yet to allow a defensive TD all season and this Bills offense isn’t one to score a ton of points.
Deep Threat | Bears $3,400 vs. MIN
Bears are at home vs. a Vikings team that is struggling in the passing game. If the Bears can slow down Dalvin Cook and force Kirk Cousins to throw, the Bears could feast on his mistakes.
Hail Mary | Bucs $2,100 vs. LAR
The Bucs are one of the most underrated fantasy defenses this year and the Rams have been “meh” on offense. The Bucs could surprise everyone in this game and give the Rams more than they bargained for.
Missed Tackle | Chargers $3,800 @ MIAÂ
The Chargers will be the chalk defense, but I don’t think I’m willing to pay the premium for a defense hasn’t scored more than eight points in any game this season. They could very well have a good game here against this terrible Miami team, but I don’t think they are worth paying up for.
Others I like: Seahawks $3,300
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