Another good week on FanDuel in Week 6, and with the NBA just around the corner I’m hoping to keep the momentum going in the NFL to have a nice bankroll for the true daily nature of the NBA. It’s my favorite time of the year with the NBA and NFL on at the same time. Let’s win some money in Week 7…
| Explosive Play | My top play for the position |
| Deep Threat | A deep threat is a second or third tier player that will outperform their price on FanDuel/DraftKings. |
| Hail Mary | Also know as a punt, a Hail Mary is a cheap, low-owned player with a ton of upside. Great for GPP's. |
| Missed Tackle | A missed tackle is a first or second tier player that I’ll be fading in my contests. |
**Prices are based on FanDuel, but most plays will crossover to DraftKings as well
**Main Slate Only
The Press Coverage Podcast
Gerson and Jason join me on the show today to talk about of Sundays top FanDuel plays.
Quarterbacks
Explosive Play | Matt Ryan vs SD $8,700
Believe it or not, but six weeks into the season and Matt Ryan and the Falcons have only played two home games! Ryan has always been a better QB at home than on the road, and that is the case again this year where he is averaging 30.44 FanDuel points at home, albeit a small sample size of only two games. The Chargers come into this game ranked in the bottom ten for points allowed to quarterbacks — giving up just over 19 FD points per game. I expect this game to be a shootout and so does Vegas with a 53 o/u for this game, the highest of any game this week.
Deep Threat | Kirk Cousins @ DET $7,300
The Lions have overtaken the Falcons as the team that gives up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and it’s even worse than the numbers show. The Falcons, ranked just behind the Lions, have faced Derek Carr, Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Russel Wilson. The Lions fell to last place over the last three weeks having faced the likes of Carson Wentz, Brian Hoyer and just made Case Keenum look like Kurt Warner circa 1999. Cousins isn’t as good on the road as he is at home, but he is a hundred times better than Keenum with better weapons. Not-to-mention, the Redskins won’t be able to stop the Lions either, this game will be another shootout in the making. Vegas agrees with the third highest o/u on the slate at 49.
Hail Mary |Â Alex Smith vs NO $7,200
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
So I just mentioned the highest and third highest Vegas o/u with my two previous QBs, mine as well mention the second highest. This o/u is currently sitting at 50 and of all the QBs in these high scoring games, Smith represents the best bang for your buck. I had him in this column last week and he disappointed from a fantasy perspective despite playing extremely well from an NFL standpoint. He only threw 22 passes but just three of them fell incomplete, unfortunately for me, the Chiefs ran the ball well and all of their TDs were scored on the ground. Playing at home this week, against the awful Saints defense, he will throw at least two TDs today, and I’m going to bold predict he throws for three and runs for another.
Missed Tackle | Drew Brees @ KC $8,500
Brees’ struggles on the road are legit. Since 2015 he has averaged 27.5 FanDuel points at home, while only averaging 14.9 on the road. Arrowhead stadium is a tough place to play, and the Chiefs defense is starting to get healthy. Avoid ALL Saints players this week, with the exception being Mark Ingram.
Others I like: Derek Carr $8,300, Matthew Stafford $7,900, Andy Dalton $8,100, Colin Kaepernick $6,500
Running Backs
Explosive Play | Le’Veon Bell vs NE $8,600
In the four games that Ben Roethlisberger missed last year Bell touched the ball 24.5 times and averaged over 125 total yards. That sounds like a lot, right? Well, what if I told you in his three games this year he is getting 23.5 touches a game and over 146 total yards? In-other-words, Big Ben or no Big Ben, Bell will touch the ball a ton and rack up the yardage. Bell is the Steelers best weapon now that Landry Jones is throwing the ball to Antonio Brown, and Bill Belichick will try to take him out of the game, but I think he will be unsuccessful in doing so.
Deep Threat |Â James White @ PIT $6,100
White has out snapped and out-touched LeGarrette Blount over the last two weeks, which happens to coincide with the return of Tom Brady. He is the receiving back in an offense that passes over 60 percent of the time, with Brady as his QB, need I say more?
Hail Mary | Mike Davis vs TB $4,500
This pick is more about his price and opportunity than anything else. No one knows what to expect from Davis, but something we can expect from Chip Kelly is that he will not change his offense. The 49ers are among the league leaders in rushing attempts per game. I would expect Davis to get a healthy workload against a Tampa Bay team that will likely be down a few interior linemen. He only needs nine FanDuel points to hit cash game value and his price really opens up your lineup to cram in another stud.
Missed Tackle | Melvin Gordon @ ATL $8,000
If you were to look at the DvP (defense versus position) for the Falcons against the running back position, you would see that they are among the worst in the league. So why fade him? If you dig a little deeper into their DvP, they actually defend the run well ranking in the top six in rushing yards allowed per game. What makes them look bad against running backs is the number of receptions and receiving yards they allow to opposing running backs. Gordon isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, and I expect this to be the week we see a little more of Dexter McCluster.
Others I like: Devonta Freeman $7,500, Jacquizz Rodgers $5,600, Giovani Bernard $6,300, DeMarco Murray $8,700
Wide Receivers
Explosive Play | Mike Evans @ SF $8,000
Julio Jones is probably the consensus top play this week at wide receiver, and I have no issues with that, but I’m going to save a little money and play Evans. Evans is on pace to match Julio Jones’ total targets from 2015 (over 200), and now that Vincent Jackson is on IR he may even get more targets. This 49er team is actually ranked decently at defending the pass — but the numbers are lying. They only show well against the pass because they are so bad against the run — teams don’t need to pass on them thus skewing the numbers.
Deep Threat | Marvin Jones Jr. vs WAS $7,700
Jones is a high-upside GPP play for me. He’ll be low-owned due to his lack of production in recent games, but the Redskins defense is pretty bad even with Josh Norman. I don’t believe Norman will shadow Jones in this game because of what Tate did last week, and I think Jones gets back to his No. 1 receiver status this week.
Hail Mary | Torrey Smith vs TB $5,600
Smith is a lotto ticket play and a true Hail Mary. With Colin Kaepernick starting in Week 6 the 49ers took some deep shots to Smith on a few occasions. In fact, they just missed connecting on two long bombs that would have gone for TDs. I think they get on the same page this week and connect on at least one of those deep balls against a soft Bucs secondary. He only needs one of those to hit value. Bold prediction, Smith has over 100 yards and a TD this week.
Missed Tackle |Â Brandin Cooks @ KC $7,700
As goes Brees so goes Cooks. This Saints passing offense will struggle in Kansas City. Avoid all of them.
Others I like: Amari Cooper $7,900, Allen Robinson $8,400
Tight Ends
Explosive Play |Jordan Reed @ DET $7,300
If Reed plays, which still isn’t a sure thing, he has Rob Gronkowski‘s upside for $1,200 less. The Lions pass defense is among the worst in the league and Reed is Kirk Cousins’ favorite red zone target.
Deep Threat | Hunter Henry @ ATL $5,800
I’m going to make a point to start the tight end playing the Falcons pretty much every week, they are just that bad. Henry has clearly taken over as the No. 1 target for Philip Rivers in this offense and he has a ton of upside at $5,800 going up against the last ranked defense defending the tight end, where do I sign up?
Hail Mary | Cameron Brate @ SF $5,200
Brate has been a popular red zone and goal line target for Jameis Winston and I expect them to be in the red zone a lot in this game. Since 49ers’ MLB Navarro Bowman went down, the 49ers are nearly as bad as the Falcons defending the tight end position. He’ll get in the end zone in this game.
Missed Tackle | Jimmy Graham $6,700 @ ARI
His salary has reached the point where he is no longer a sure-fire start at tight end, and he has a bad matchup this week with an Arizona team ranked No. 1 overall in FanDuel points allowed to opposing tight ends. He hasn’t become the red zone threat he was when playing with the Saints having only one touchdown all season. There are better — and cheaper — options on this slate.
Others I like: Travis Kelce $6,300, Jack Doyle $4,700
Defense
Explosive Play | Bengals vs CLE $5,100
The weekly “play the team playing the Browns” pick. Nothing to see here, move along.
Deep Threat | Ravens @ Jets $4,800
The Ravens have eight interceptions this season, good for third-best in the league. The Jets, on the other hand, have thrown 12 interceptions and “lead” the league in that category. Oh yeah, and Geno Smith is getting the start, I probably should have led with that.
Hail Mary | Patriots @ PIT $4,400
This pick can be summed up in two words. Landry Jones. Le’Veon Bell will have to be all-world for the Steelers to have a chance (which he will be), but even is he is, the Patriots will still collect some sacks and an interception or two.
Missed Tackle | Seahawks @ ARI $4,800
Division game. In Arizona. Expensive. Fade them.
Others I like: Bills $4,700
[wysija_form id=”10″]
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
