Welcome to Week 2. Each week I will present the best value prices on Yahoo’s DFS format for the Sunday slate. In last week’s article, I made some correct predictions (Metcalf, Hockenson) but I also made some mistakes (Ekeler, Goff).
While I did not specifically outline Davante Adams last week, I did write that he had the upside to be the #1 overall WR. That turned out to be the case as Adams scored 34.6 fantasy points, more than any other player in week 1. Once again, I have Adams ranked as the top WR and once again I will not outline him specifically.
In these articles, I am attempting to identify the best value plays on Yahoo’s DFS format. For roster and scoring settings, check out my Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are three teams that play Home and Dome in week 2′ Sunday Slate:
Arizona Cardinals vs Washington
Dallas Cowboys vs Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Tyord Taylor (LAC) $20 vs KC
Minimum price for a QB like Tyrod Taylor, one who can produce a solid rushing floor, is too great of an opportunity to pass on. Speaking of passing, against a Chiefs team that is expected to put up the points, the Chargers may have no choice but to air it out. In fact, the Chargers are the largest underdogs this week facing a 9-point spread according to BUSR. With that type of game script likely leading to numerous passing attempts from Taylor, he certainly possesses upside this week. As far as I am concerned, there is no QB with a value that come close to Taylor. Therefore he is the only QB I will advise selecting this week.
Running Back
Derrick Henry (TEN) $34 vs JAX
During week 1, Derrick Henry did not have the greatest efficiency, running at 3.7 yards per carry. However, he did get the volume with 31 carries and 3 targets. While he could not find the end zone against Denver, he faces a familiar division foe during week 2. The Titans as 7.5 point favorites host the Jaguars, in what should be an even better game script for Henry. At one point leading up to week 1, the Titans-Broncos game was a pick’em. Don’t forget, Henry has had tremendous success against this Jacksonville defense in the past.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) $33 vs ATL
This is the time to pay up at RB. With the QB that I mentioned earlier, it is certainly possible to play both Ezekiel Elliott and another elite RB (i.e. Henry). There are several reasons for selecting Elliott this week. For starters, he was heavily utilized in the red zone and was involved in the passing game. It is the latter that will be incredibly important to Elliott’s production in week 2. The Cowboys and Falcons game has the highest combined over/under of the week at 54 points scored. The Cowboys are favored which bodes well for Elliott and his rushing ability. If the game does transform into a shootout, Elliot has demonstrated that he can remain involved in the game.
More Value: Chris Carson $21
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (KC) $29 @ LAC
If you are going with Tyrod Taylor at QB, it is entirely possible to fit in two elite RB options as well as a top tier WR. In the form of an inexpensive stack, Hill makes a great pairing with the QB Taylor on opposite sides of the matchup. Looking at the Chargers secondary, there is a lot of talent. While Watkins wowed us last week with his wonderful ways, I believe he will have a much tougher time producing. Tyreek Hill’s speed is perhaps the one x-factor that the Chargers cannot combat. Look for Hill to potentially lead the Chiefs in targets this week.
Amari Cooper (DAL) / Calvin Ridley (ATL) $22 ATL @ DAL
Not only is the Falcons-Cowboys game the highest projected score (52.5 points) but, as mentioned in the into, it is also in a dome. That type of situation certainly favors the receiving options. I have already written about Ezekiel Elliott, but another Dallas player needs exposure. While he can be inconsistent, Amari Cooper displayed a great catch rate (10 off of 14 targets) against Jalen Ramsey last week. Squaring off against lesser cornerbacks during this Home and Dome scenario makes Cooper such a strong play for the 16th most expensive WR. There is an ankle concern with Cooper as he is listed as questionable. If he is active, I still believe that he is worth playing.
At that same price is Calvin Ridley. If you played Elliott and are looking to avoid the RB-WR stack on the same team, then Ridley offers a great pivot. Not only will you remain in the Atlanta-Dallas game, but you will get the WR#2 from last week. That was also an expected shootout with the 3rd highest over/under of the week. Those results are certainly repeatable for Ridley. He makes a perfect pivot if you want to avoid Julio Jones and his $32 price tag this week.
Keenan Allen (LAC) $18 vs KC
Keenan Allen is the best stack option if you are going with the minimum priced Tyrod Taylor. Even if you are going with a different QB, Allen presents a solid value to add to the floor of any lineup. In spite of playing with a new QB, Allen still saw 8 targets in week 1. Considering the fact that his team are 9-point underdogs, Allen will likely see more targets in this upcoming matchup. If you believe that Allen will remain as the Chargers alpha receiver this season, then you will that his price is equal to Hunter Henry, and only $3 more than Mike Williams.
More Value: Paris Campbell $17
Tight End
OJ Howard (TB) $14 vs CAR
Two weeks in, and Tampa Bay’s top two receivers have both dealt with injuries. The good news for the Buccaneers is that they host the Panthers in week 2. For their week 1 performance, the Carolina defense earned a ranking of 27th in Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). With the ability to beat the Panthers in seemingly any way, look for Tom Brady to find a way with his receivers. Tight end OJ Howard was 2nd on the team in targets last week and 1st in Red Zone looks. Howard did manage to score during week 1 and things are shaping up for it to happen again in week 2.
Week 1 TE Targets + RZ Opportunities
Essentially, double the value of Red Zone Targets.
Mark Andrews BAL – 10
Dallas Goedert PHI – 10
Jimmy Graham CHI – 10
Hunter Henry LAC – 10
Evan Engram NYG – 9
Logan Thomas WAS – 91/?
— Kyle Senra (@SenraSays) September 15, 2020
Jimmy Graham (CHI) $11 vs NYG
I have advised going after top tier RBs and WRs this week. For those looking for an elite TE, I would recommend Mark Andrews for $25. Something I will be tracking all season is TE targets + Red Zone targets (esentially doubling the value of Red Zone Targtes). Andrew tied for the league-lead in that category during week 1.
One of the players that tied Andrews was Jimmy Graham. The Bears also face a vulnerable secondary during week 2, so Graham could potentially be very productive. Especially if he heavily targeted once again in the Red Zone. Graham is getting similar opportunities as Andrews, yet he is half the price in DFS. That makes Graham a great value.
More Value: Logan Thomas $13
Deep Dive
Zack Moss (BUF) $15 @ MIA
Maybe $15 is too expensive for a deep dive, but I felt the need to outline Zack Moss and the opportunity that he has in week 2. According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Dolphins are ranked 29th in the league. As we saw last week, Miami is vulnerable on the ground as they allowed 3 rushing touchdowns. Considering that Moss was 3rd in the NFL in red zone opportunities last week, he has a good chance to score again this week.
Olabisi Johnson (MIN) $12 @ IND
Perhaps this is more in line with the traditional pricing for a deep dive. Olabisi Johnson will be playing in a dome game which helps his upside. Last week, he was behind only Adam Thielen in targets on the Vikings. While Thielen ($25) has a decent price, I would prefer to pay half the price and play Johnson against the 28th raked DVOA defense.
Defense
Buffalo Bills $18 @ MIA
The Bills defense produced a pair of turnovers and a few sacks during week 1. Against the Dolphins and their newly rebuild offensive line, I could see those numbers increase in week 2. I think they are worth paying up for, especially if you are saving money at QB, TE, and Flex.
Arizona Cardinals $12 @ ARI
For a defense on the inexpensive side, I would go with the Cardinals. Based off of week 1 performances, Washington’s offensive line ranked 27th in Football Outsiders Adjusted Sack rate. Perhaps that has a lot to do with the quality of the opponent. However, Arizona produced 3 sacks on the 49ers. Imagine what they could do against a Washington unit that is already struggling.
Thank you for reading. Be sure to check out all of the great DFS content available at Going for 2.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
