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Disclaimer: the Top Stacks Report will be a weekly article highlighting my favorite correlated stacks of the week on both Draftkings and Fanduel. I will be using Draftkings pricing in the headers. Unless one site is specified, I like the stack for both.
Lets dive into Week 9…
I don’t like a lot this week in terms of stacks without Deshaun Watson in play, but I LOVE the three I’m writing about.
Drew Brees ($7,000), Alvin Kamara ($6,300), Michael Thomas ($7,200), DeSean Jackson ($5,500), and Adam Humphries ($3,300)
The Saints have the highest team total of the week at 29.25. I know the Saints have turned to the run game a lot more than we’ve ever seen in the Drew Brees era, but I’m still a believer in this passing attack. I’m pessimistic that it goes overlooked, but this is arguably the best spot Brees has been in all season against Tampa Bay’s oft-injured 31st ranked pass defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA. After fumbling twice last week, Mark Ingram might be in the dog house or at least on a very short leash. The Buccaneers are 25th in DVOA against RBs out of the backfield, and Kamara is averaging just under 6 targets per game. Kamara has also seen an uptick in carries with 8+ in each game since Adrian Peterson was traded. I will continue to play him weekly until the 30 point fantasy game comes. I think stacking him with Brees will go under-utilized, because it’s perceived that a QB-RB stack is always negatively correlated. Michael Thomas is going to be one of the highest owned wide receivers this week and rightfully so. Brent Grimes is out for the Buccaneers, so Michael Thomas should see a lot of Robert McClain coverage. Thomas has a 6 inch height advantage over McClain making him an elite red zone target for Drew Brees this week (not that he isn’t already). Outside of the Lions with Darius Slay and the Vikings with Xavier Rhodes, Thomas has seen 8+ targets and 77+ yards each game this season. I expect this to be the matchup he clears 100 yards for the first time this season. The Buccaneers offense is interesting as 6.5-point road underdogs traveling to face a Saints defense that has been as good as anyone over the past month. Mike Evans will face off against Pro Football Focus’ #1 corner in rookie Marshon Lattimore. Evans has a 5 inch and 39 pound advantage over Lattimore, but I don’t want to actively target him when Evans needs to score 25+ fantasy points at his price to pay off value in tournaments. Also, Jameis Winston has been dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder which scares me a bit. However, there’s been sharp money in Vegas coming in on the Buccaneers, so the Winston injury can’t be that big of a concern. DeSean Jackson has been consistently seeing between 6-9 targets per game as a Bucc, but has yet to reach 20 fantasy points. The Saints rank 31st in explosive pass rate per Sharp Football Stats, so look for DeSean to get his chances on a few deep balls. My favorite play on the Buccs is Adam Humphries. In tough matchups for Mike Evans, Humphries has been the beneficiary. He’s seen 10 targets against the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 7 against the Giants (Janoris Jenkins), and 7 against the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson). For $3,300 on a week that requires some savings, I’ll have a lot of Adam Humphries. Feel free to send me a head-to-head because this probably won’t end well.
Russell Wilson ($7,300), Doug Baldwin ($6,900), Jimmy Graham ($5,000), Vernon Davis ($4,100)
I hope you guys enjoyed Russell Wilson’s performance last week as much as I did. Unfortunately for me, I did not make a bunch of lineups last week and did not stack Russ with anyone besides Doug Baldwin. I am going right back to the well this week with Russ to Baldwin hoping that Baldwin scared some people off last week. Working mostly in the slot, Baldwin will avoid Josh Norman and Brashaud Breeland, and instead see Kendall Fuller coverage. He’s been very hit or miss this season, so I will be playing him weekly in tournaments with Russ…mainly because of FOMO. Over the past 5 games, Jimmy Graham has 5+ targets and double digit fantasy points in each. He also has 12 red zone targets and 4 touchdowns over that span. The Redskins are 28th in DVOA against tight ends and are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the position. For the Redskins with Jordan Reed out and Jamison Crowder unlikely to play (check on reports Sunday morning), Vernon Davis should be in for a big workload. Targets also funnel towards the middle of the field with the great corner play on the outside and Earl Thomas being out this week. By default, Davis is one of the best tight end plays of the week if you think the Redskins move the ball at least a little. I also think Ryan Grant for cheap is in play taking over the slot role if Crowder is out.
Stack of The Week
Dak Prescott ($6,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000), Dez Bryant ($6,400), and Travis Kelce ($6,700)
The Cowboys/Chiefs game is easily the best game of the week with a total that has shot up from 51 to a slate-high 54 this week. I will not be making a single DFS team this week without exposure to this game, so I advise you do the same. All the main plays in this game are expensive, so it might be difficult for most people to feel comfortable with 3+ guys in a lineup. My strategy this week is going to be taking some shots at $3,000 wide receivers across the league, then stacking up this Cowboys/Chiefs game every way possible. Before the Ezekiel Elliott news broke, I was ready to be all in on Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant stacks this week. Over the past 3 games, Zeke has carries the ball 88 times compared to 83 pass attempts from Dak; the game plan has clearly been to run Zeke into the ground before his suspension begins. Now that it looks like the suspension will start next week (who knows), I expect close to 30 touches again for Zeke. The Chiefs get a lot of love from the public, but rank 31st in run defense DVOA. That’s not good. Even though his volume has been lacking, Dak’s efficiency hasn’t. He’s put up 29+ fantasy points in 2 of the 3 games. The Chiefs have allowed big fantasy games to QBs with mobility, allowing 28 fantasy points to Carson Wentz with a 4-55 rushing line, and 35 fantasy points to Deshaun Watson with a 3-31 rushing line. I expect Dak to join this list with success against the 26th ranked defense by DVOA. According to Pro Football Focus, Dez Bryant runs 47% of his routes on the left side, so he should avoid corner Marcus Peters who plays 92% of the time from left corner (right side of the offense) and won’t move or shadow. The Cowboys have been comfortable looking elsewhere when Dez has been in tough matchups, but this is one is exploitable and Dez is way too cheap on Draftkings. On the other side of the ball I love all the Chiefs studs too. Travis Kelce is my favorite if running back a Dallas stack (Kareem Hunt is my favorite overall). Kelce went for 7-133-1 on Monday night against Denver (27th DVOA verse tight ends), and now gets the 29th ranked team in DVOA verse tight ends this week. As this game will be popular and expensive game stack, consider using Kelce in the flex to fit a cheap tight end for salary savings and unique roster construction with double tight ends.
Good luck this week, and feel free to reach out with questions/feedback on twitter @EvanRosenberg0. I would love to hear your thoughts and discuss further.