Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) $26 @ LV
On his own merit, Taylor Heinicke is a solid play. Among quarterbacks on the Week 13 main slate, he is 10th in fantasy points per game. However, what truly makes him a great value play is the matchup in Las Vegas. Specifically, the defense demonstrates a great disparity in rushing and passing efficiency. Inside their own 5-yard line, the Raiders have allowed a TD on 29% of runs against them. That is the second-lowest total among all teams playing in Week 13. Conversely, Las Vegas has surrendered a TD on 83% on goal-line throws against them, the highest amount in the NFL. So if the Washington offense gets close to the end zone, odds are, any touchdowns will come through the air.
Matt Ryan (ATL) $24 vs TB
Suggesting Matt Ryan can be ugly I know. Just look at the last time he played the Buccaneers. In that Week 2 matchup, Ryan threw a season-high 3 interceptions. However, he also produced a season-high in completions which led to a 300-yard, 2-TD game. Overall, Ryan produced his third-best fantasy game of the season. So even if he commits turnovers, Ryan can turn it around and be a usable fantasy option.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette (TB) $25 @ ATL
Looking at the Buccaneers-Falcons game, Tampa Bay are 11-point favorites in the contest. In those situations, usually, the RB on the favored team is a good option. This is especially true when said RB is coming off of a 40-point fantasy performance. Now, last week’s game may overinflate Leonard Fournette‘s rostership this time around. Because of this, he may be better in 50/50 or cash games as opposed to GPP or tournaments.
Josh Jacobs (LV) $19 vs WAS
Now for the opposite, someone whose rostership will likely be too low. With other Raiders on the slate representing tremendous value (more on that later), I believe Josh Jacobs will be overlooked in a lot of situations. Couple that with the questionable tag next to his name, and Jacobs will likely not be a very popular play. Especially in tournaments, I want Jacobs at what I view as a great sub-$20 value. According to the Week 13 Goal-Line Guide Las Vegas has the second-best Rushing Goal-Line Grade. The Matchup against Washington could yield success as they have surrendered a TD on 60% of the carries they have faced inside the 5-yard line. There are only four teams allowing over 60% TD rate on Goal-Line rushing plays. This will require checking for active/inactive updates on Sunday, but if Jacobs is in, I want him in my DFS lineups. Especially if Jacobs is involved in the passing game, as evidenced by at least 4 targets in 4 straight games.
Alexander Mattison (MIN) $18 @ DET
Unlike some other DFS websites, Yahoo did not adjust the prices of the Vikings’ running backs. As a result, Alexander Mattison comes in as arguably the best value on the slate. Any workhorse RB going against the Lions defense is a solid play. Let alone one for only $18. Detroit has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Expect high rostership for Mattison this week.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson (MIN) $32 @ DET
Can the second most expensive WR be a value play? Can he be a leverage play? This week, I say the answer to both questions is yes. Because Alexander Mattison will basically be a free square, I think the rostership on Justin Jefferson will be lower than usual. Last time he played the Lions, Jefferson went off for 124 receiving yards on only 7 catches. Producing 15.9 fantasy points without scoring a TD is rather impressive. If Jefferson can find the end zone, he will certainly pay off his price.
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Keenan Allen (LAC) $25 @ CIN
The Chargers-Bengals game has the second-highest projected over/under on the week. I believe a great way to invest in that game is Keenan Allen. He is consistently involved in the offense evidenced by his five-game streak of double-digit targets. Allen is $9 cheaper than the RB on his team, but also only $3 more expensive than the Chargers WR2. This puts Allen in a great range
Terry McLaurin (WAS) $22 @ LV
For anyone playing Taylor Heinickie, the obvious stack is Terry McLaurin. Even if you are not going with the Washington QB, McLaurin still represents a great value. Everything I mentioned in the QB section applies here. The Raiders defense has been more vulnerable through the air, especially near the goal-line. McLaurin leads Washington in targets from inside the 10-yard line. The next two on the list are both tight ends. And While Logan Thomas could be a good play, he is only $3 cheaper than McLaurin. I prefer to spend the extra money and secure Washington’s top target.
Hunter Renfrow (LV) $18 vs WAS
Looking back at the RB section, there is a chance that Josh Jacobs misses Week 13. If that happens, rather than pivot to the backup RB for the Raiders, I would likely prefer to just play Hunter Renfrow in the flex. Entering the game against Washington, Renfrow is locked in as the alpha target on the team. He has at least 8 targets in six of the last eight games he has played. I mentioned earlier that the Washington defense has been vulnerable on the ground to TD production, however, that also extends to the passing game. In this week’s Goal-Line Guide, Las Vegas has the second-best Passing Goal-Line Grade in the league for Week 13. As I have mentioned throughout this article, I want to stack the Washington-Raiders game.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (BAL) $22 @ PIT
With so much great value on the slate, I think this is the perfect week to pay up at TE. There is an elite tier of three priced between $21 and $23. Mark Andrews falls right in the middle of that price range. Yet he tied for first among Week 13 main slate tight ends in fantasy points per game. According to the Week 13 Goal-Line Guide, the Ravens have the third-best Goal-Line Grade among passing offenses in the main slate. So if Baltimore gets close to the end-zone, look for a stronger possibility of passing touchdowns instead of scoring on the ground. All three of the top tight ends are worth paying up for. Andrews is just my preference for this week.
Foster Moreau (LV) $11 vs WAS
Much like Alexander Mattison in the RB section, Foster Moreau comes in as one of the best values on the slate. His price was set for Week 13 with the expectation that Moreau was going to be the backup. Well, it appears that he will be the starting TE for the Raiders. If you choose not to pay up for the elite tight ends, I recommend paying down to Moreau at only $1 above the minimum. He is just another piece of the Washing-Las Vegas stack that can fit into almost any lineup.
Deep Dive
Tyler Boyd (CIN) $11 vs LAC
While typically a slot receiver is fairly consistent, Tyler Boyd has been anything but that. This has caused his price to dip below $14 for over a month now. I did not expect to ever write about Boyd in this deep dive section but here we are. As I mentioned in the Keenan Allen section, I wanted exposure to this Bengals-Chargers game. And Boyd provides an opportunity to buy at close to the minimum price.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams $17 vs JAX
The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Yet the Rams are not priced up as the second most expensive unit. That makes them a value in my book. If you wanted to pay up for a DST, I would not go further than the Rams at $17. But truthfully, I think the key to Week 13 success lies in the value tier.
Baltimore Ravens $12 @ PIT
Truthfully, my favorite DST to play on Yahoo DFS this week is Baltimore. Going against the Steelers, I am shocked to see the Ravens at only $12, even on the road. Big Ben has certainly not been Big-Play Ben as the veteran QB has really struggled to throw the football this season. If Baltimore’s secondary can take advantage and create turnovers, look for the Ravens to be a tremendous value.
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