Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL) $33 vs DEN
Coming off an injury that forced him to miss the last game, I am going right to Dak Prescott in Week 9. A big factor for that is the Cowboys Goal-Line Grade for their passing offense in Week 9. They have by far the highest grade of any team on the ground or through the air. I think given the offensive upside of the team, Prescott is coming in at a bit of a value. $33 is a preferred positional price point, with 3 quarterbacks all at that exact same cost. While all three are viable players, Prescott is my preference. And he has several affordable stacking options at various positions.
Daniel Jones (NYG) $25 vs LV
Going back to the Goal-Line Guide, the Giants passing game grades out rather well in Week 9. Part of that is their opponent as the Raiders have allowed a TD on every pass thrown against them from inside their own 5-yard line. That certainly bumps up the Goal-Line Grade. But at 88.5 the Giants Throwing Grade is over 30 points higher than their rushing grade (55). If the Giants do find the end zone, I like the odds that Daniel Jones will be involved.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) $29 vs DEN
There are multiple ways to approach the Cowboys offense this week. Whether you want to invest in the passing or running game, Ezekiel Elliott is your man. Mostly because Elliott leads Dallas in two important opportunity categories. Rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, and targets inside the 10-yard line. The Cowboys have the 2nd highest projected implied total on the Week 9 main slate. If Dallas does find the end zone multiple times in this game, look for Elliott to be the primary beneficiary. This may be the week for the less-than-conventional QB-RB stack.
Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) $20 @ NO
Speaking of non-conventional, that term basically sums up Cordarrelle Patterson. The nine-year vet has been an All-Pro Special Teams player and at times used as a pass-catcher. However, in spite of the running back designation he has been carrying for the last few years, he has not carried the ball more than 64 times in any season. Patterson has now hit a career-best 268 rushing yards so far in 2021. He has also produced a career-high 5 receiving touchdowns on 41 targets. Patterson is a multi-dimensional asset that can be fantasy-viable in any game script.
Darrell Williams (KC) $14 vs GB
If you believe, as I do, that Darrel Williams is still the lead back in Kansas City for at least one more week, then he comes in at a bargain price. For running backs, it’s all about opportunities. $14 does seem low for a player coming off of a 13 carry, 6 catch game. If Williams can get close to 20 touches again, he should be a great value.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs (BUF) $27 @ HOU
One of the biggest worries with wide receivers on heavy favorites is the game script. Will their team get up to such a big lead that they will not need to throw the football? As 14.5 favorites in Week 9, that could be a fear that drives rostership down for Stefon Diggs in particular. However, the Bills have blown away some teams completely this season with two defensive shutouts. In both of those games, Diggs had at least 14 fantasy points. So the game script does not prevent Diggs from producing.
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Mike Williams / Keenan Allen (LAC) $25/$23 @ PHI
Last week, I wrote up Mike Williams and he did not pay off. But the best time to strike is after a disappointing performance when rostership will likely be lower. Honestly, with Williams so close in price to his teammate Keenan Allen, both Chargers are equally viable. Among teams on the road, only the Bills have a higher projected implied total for Week 9 than the Chargers. The TD opportunities should be there and this is a great price range to invest in receivers.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) $25 @ BAL
We are establishing a good price range at WR this week. As with Mike Williams, Justin Jefferson is coming off of a disappointing performance with only 2 catches for 21 yards in Week 8. The best time to invest is at the dip. So go after Jefferson in an admittingly difficult matchup. Just another reason why his rostership could be lower.
Brandin Cooks (HOU) $18 @ MIA
Looking back to the Goal-Line Guide for Week 9, the Texans have a surprisingly high score, ranked 3rd among all pass-catching teams. What has not been a surprise is the target share breakdown in Houston. As expected, Brandin Cooks has led the way, seeing 27.6% of the team’s targets this season. Especially in a great matchup against the Dolphins, who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, play Cooks with confidence at a value price.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz (DAL) $16 vs DEN
Back with another Cowboy. Earlier, I mentioned a Dallas stack at QB-RB. For those looking for a more convention pass-catching role to pair with Dak, I suggest Dalton Schultz as the best value option. First, he appears to be the healthiest body among the Cowboys pass-catchers. Secondly, his targets have remained rather stable with at 6 in all but one game this season. Coming off of a disappointing fantasy performance without his starting QB, Schultz should rebound with some normalcy in the lineup. A Dallas QB-RB-TE stack seems very realistic this week.
Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN) $10 @ DAL
With so much stacking with the Dallas players, it can be important (though not necessary) to tun-it-back with the opposite team. For the Broncos, an opportunity has opened up a great value price. Albert Okwuegbunam is in line to be Denver’s starting TE in Week 9. It may an area for the Broncos to exploit, as the Cowboys have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. All that for minimum price. That screams value.
Deep Dive
RB – JaMycal Hasty (SF) $13 s ARI
Way back in the QB section of the article, I mentioned something about the Giants. They had a large disparity in their passing and rushing Goal-Line Grades. In the Giants case, this favored the passing game, but for the 49ers it is the opposite. With a Goal-Line Grade of 27, the 49ers passing game has the lowest score this week. The chances of San Francisco scoring on the ground are much more favorable. Given the injuries in the backfield, JaMycal Hasty made be the best play from among the group. He has gotten multiple carries from inside the 5-yard line so he could find the end zone. Hasty has also shown some pass-catching upside with 13 targets over the last three weeks.
Defense
Cincinnati Bengals $13 vs CLE
Lately, the Browns have really struggled, especially in one area that I like to target for fantasy defenses. According to Football Outsiders Offensive Line Metrics, Cleveland is ranked 30th in adjusted sack rate. For only $13, I like the Bengals at home against a team giving up all that QB pressure. Not only could that lead to sack production, but potentially also turnovers through tipped balls or mistakes.
Los Angeles Chargers $13 @ PHI
Apparently, there is a preferred positional price point at defense. The reason I did not recommend any top-tier priced defenses is because of several quality options for a good value price. Yes, the Eagles scored a bunch of points in Week 8, but that performance was a bit of an anomaly. It was the only game this season where the Philadelphia offensive line did not allow a sack, after giving up multiple sacks in 6 straight games. And there have not been many turnovers surrendered by the Eagles offense, they have come in bunches. 80% of Philadelphia’s giveaways came in two games. Perhaps the Charges can find a matchup to exploit.
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