Whether you are here to grab all the running backs or are a zero-sum running back fantasy manager the 2022 NFL Fantasy Season is upon us, and it is time to get a thinking about your draft strategy. The best fantasy football managers are those that can find value in the draft (and stay on their toes for that waiver wire gem) in every position. Running backs who are undervalued in 2022 are those whose current ADP is lower than their potential production.
Here are seven running backs that are currently undervalued.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Fantasy Pros 13th Running Back, 23rd overall
NFFC ADP ranks him as the 14th running back off the board
The Ringer ranks Barkley as their 24th running back
DraftSharks.com ADP 3.1, 11th running back off the board
Underdog ADP early third round @ RB13
Yes, Barkley has been plagued with injuries. In 2020 he suffered an ACL tear and an MCL sprain. He was only on the field for two games. Then he attempted to play in 2021, only to suffer an ankle injury in Week 5. The 2021 season saw Barkley have 23 attempts and 83 yards in his first two games. In Weeks 3-4, he had a combined 220 yards, three rushing touchdowns, and 11 receptions. He missed Weeks5-10 with the ankle injury, only to return and collect 521 combined yards, one touchdown, and 27 receptions for the remainder of the Giants season.
That was then with Joe Judge this is now with a healthy Barkley and Brian Diaboll head coach.
While Barkley’s health status and the Giant’s offensive line (30th ranked per Pro Football Focus with a 21st run-blocking grade) are some concerns, there is reason to believe he will outshine his current ADP. Per NJ.com Zack Rosenblatt, Barkley has lined up as a receiver in both the slot and outside in early camp. Diaboll has also expressed his desire to utilize Barkley as a wide receiver.
When healthy during the 2018-2019 seasons he had 80% of the running backs receiving targets in 2018 and 87% of those targets in 2019. In 2019 that equaled 73 targets, 52 receptions, 438 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
Currently, the Giants’ running back room consists of Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell (well a few others but…) none of whom should seriously challenge a healthy Barkley for touches.
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Adding pass-catching to his arsenal raises his ceiling, making Barkley a top-five potential for fantasy in both PPR and Standard fantasy scoring.
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Pro Football Focus #15th Running Back
DraftSharks.com ADP 4.7
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP 4.11
Fantasy Pros 17th Running Back, 36th overall
Conner will be back in Arizona this season, Chase Edmonds will not. Last season Conner finished the season as RB5. He tied for second in goal-line carries and third in touchdowns, finishing the season with 15 rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns. Currently, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, and Saquon Barkley are higher than Conner.
As with Barkley, there are durability issues as he has missed 16 games over the last five seasons.
His lowest fantasy output was Week2 against the Minnesota Vikings where he had 2.6 fantasy points. In nine games he scored double-digit fantasy points including Week9 against San Francisco where he scored 35.3 fantasy points.
The Cardinals did select a running back, USC’s Keaontay Ingram in the sixth round to replace Edmonds. There is yet no talk of Ingram replacing Conner or there being a running back by committee situation.
Last season only six teams ran the ball more than the Cardinals, who averaged 28.6 rushing attempts per game.
Is Conner’s output from last season sustainable? Although the Cardinals acquired Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in a 2022 NFL Draft trade, whether it was a good decision remains to be seen. Contract issues aside, last season was the first time in three seasons that Brown exceeded 800 receiving yards.
There will be no DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games. No Edmonds. The Cardinals have the second hardest strength of schedule with the strength of schedule for the running back position ranked 16th.
Conner is capable of being on the field for all three downs including red-zone work. Last season he had a 57.9% snap share. Eight of his touchdowns came from the one-yard line, with 45 red-zone touches. He had the third most running back touchdowns accounting for 41% of his fantasy points. He was targeted 39 times for a 7.9% target share hauling in three receiving touchdowns.
It is possible that quarterback Kyler Murray and Brown develop Murray/Hopkins type chemistry and the Cardinals pass the ball more than the 34.7 average times a game. (In reference to Tampa Bay who passed the ball the most averaged 43.3 passes per game). Which could cut into Conner’s rushing ceiling except for the fact that his fantasy viability mostly relied upon rushing touchdowns. The Cardinals were third in rushing touchdowns per game (1.3) and 13th in passing touchdowns per game (1.5). Brown has never had double-digit receiving touchdowns, and Murray’s 24 passing touchdowns last season were 19 behind the leader (Tom Brady with 43) and two ahead of New England Patriots rookie Mac Jones.
Even averaging 3.7 yards per carry, Conner managed to finish the season as RB5. His ceiling remains high if the Cardinals continue to deploy him in goal-line situations.
***And now for your local PSA, if you need to know anything about injuries, and I mean anything send a DM to the man who knows. That would be @TFSDoc on Twitter. You know the man who wrote “Injuries Suck but Your Fantasy Team Doesn’t Have To” sold on Amazon. Follow him on Twitter, your fantasy team will tank you for it. ***
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Fantasy Pros 19th Running Back 37th overall
NFFC ADP 41, 19th Running Back selected
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP 2.07
Currently, Josh Jacobs, Cam Akers, and Antonio Gibson are going ahead of Montgomery.
Last season Chicago’s offense was anemic averaging the 10th fewest yards (29.3) scoring points on only 31.5% of their drives, the seventh-lowest rate in football.
Matt Eberflus is the new head coach and according to Adam Johns of The Athletic, the Bears “are transitioning into a run-heavy team with the outside zone.”
Last season the Bears ran the ball the ninth most in the league (46.02% of the time) while calling run plays 40.8% of the time in the red zone (the 10th highest rate). Montgomery had 50 red zone touches and was the goal-line back for Chicago carrying the ball 12 times inside the five-yard line.
When quarterback Justin Fields was under center last season, Montgomery was on the receiving end of 4.75 average targets per game.
Per fantasypros.com Montgomery has the easiest strength of schedule for a running back.
Montgomery has a high ceiling and if healthy a high floor.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins
Underdog drafted RB36, Pick 112.1
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP 8.07
Fantasy Pros ADP 35th Running Back, 95th overall
He is being picked behind rookie Breece Hall, second-year Travis Etienne Jr., and JK Dobbins
Did you know that Edmonds averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season while Conner averaged 3.71 (Yes, I still think Conner is undervalued if not just for his goal-line touches)? But the point is Edmonds (if he can stay healthy) still has it. And now Edmonds is in Miami and if you follow the money, he is the lead back. Edmonds will be making $6.1 million, Raheem Mostert will be making $1 million, and Sony Michel $850K.
But there is more. Per Sports Info Solutions in 2021 the 49ers ran a zone blocking scheme on a run play 282 times. That was the sixth-most in the league. Edmonds led the league in yards per attempt (5.8) and was second in EPA (expected points added) per play on his 68 carries with zone blocking.
Last season Miami ranked 29th in rushing yards per play (92.2). They were 30th in rushing EPA (-45.5) and were 31st in yards per carry (3.5).
Edmonds averaged 12.9 yards per rush attempt on third downs last season, and 15.5% of his runs went for 10+ yards. Although his fantasy ceiling rest on his pass-catching ability where last season in 12 games, he was targeted 53 times for 43 receptions and 311 yards, he also is a perfect fit in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
Expect a healthy Edmonds to command plenty of time on the field, making him a reliable RB2 (especially in PPR formats) and at the least a flex in standard fantasy football.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Pros 32nd Running back, 88th Overall
Underdog drafted as RB30
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP 8.06
To be honest, I am a little on the fence with Patterson. Was last season just a crazy anomaly that cannot possibly be replicated? Or is Arthur Smith a mad genius who has awoken the monster within the man?
Last season in Weeks 1-14, he was RB7 averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game. Breaking it down further in Weeks 1-9, he averaged 19.2 fantasy points. Weeks10-18 averaged 10.1 fantasy points per game. And in his last four games, he did not get more than nine fantasy points. In the first 14 weeks, he averaged five targets per game. In his final four games, he had a total of seven targets.
Now he has Marcus Mariota under center (for the start of the season anyway) whose running backs had a 17.7% target share (4.6 targets per game) when Mariota last started in Tennessee.
This will be Patterson’s 10th season in the league. Last season he had the fifth-most targets among running backs (68) and the second-most receiving yards (548) behind Austin Ekeler. He had 11 touchdowns which equaled 38% of his career touchdowns. He had 205 touches (153 rushing attempts and 52 receptions). His previous high was in 2020 he had 85 (64 rushing attempts and 21 receptions).
Will he outplay the running back carousel in New England With Damien Harris or the Cowboys’ Tony Pollard, both of whom are currently going ahead of him?
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