Happy New Year!! Let’s hope the year 2021 is much better than in 2020. There is only a couple of things to associate being good with 20/20, and that is vision and a 20 points and 20 rebounds game.
What better way to start the year off than using that $600 stimulus for a ten-game NBA slate. If you haven’t received it yet, like most of us, we will have to rely on making our own stimulus checks until then. That is what we intend on doing, and hopefully, I’m able to help with that.
This ten-game slate has a solid amount of injury news that could change the outlook on some of the guys I mention now. It has some back to back games as well. I have always watched how I play in the first few weeks of the NBA season. It can take a few games before a player or team finds their groove. This can result in different rotations and a fluctuation in minutes too. The players are also trying to play themselves more into game shape and find their shots. That is why we have saw guys struggling with their efficiency and tired more than usual. In the early season, I always consider it when I’m deciding how much to play. We should temper expectations on some players until they find their legs.
Now, enough rambling. I will get to the point. This section is titled cash, smash, or pass. The breakdown is, a player labeled as cash is one I consider a value or a cash play. The term smash is a player I could see smashing the price tag and a good GPP play. With the term pass, it’s like it seems. It’s a guy that I don’t feel like I will have much or any exposure to. I will provide one of each for the guards, forwards, and centers.
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Guards
Cash: Raul Neto– With Russell Westbrook likely not to play, it should put Neto in the starting lineup again. In this situation three games ago, we saw Neto get the start and play 32 minutes and score 40.5 fantasy points. While I don’t think we can project him for a total that high again, we can project him to return solid value. I like Neto to be one of the better cash game values on the slate.
Smash: Trae Young– We can ignore the injury tag on Trae. He is probable to play, and he should be considered in your GPP lineups. In four games this season, Trae has scored at least 29 real-life points, and he’s been over 50 fantasy points in 3 out of the 4. The other one, he had 41.3 fantasy points. The last matchup with the Nets was a high scoring game, and we should expect the same thing again. I think the Hawks can keep it close again, and as long as the game stays close, it would be easy to see Trae score over 50 again. The potential for more than 50 is there also. He is one of my highest upside guards at the moment.
Pass: Luka Doncic– I know this might look crazy, and I don’t blame you for thinking that way. The case to pass on Luka is simple for me. He will be the highest-priced guard on the slate after the Westbrook news becomes official. The price is more for the potential that Luka has. It’s not for the production he’s had this year. In four games this season, he hasn’t been at 5x value once at this price. He has been struggling with his shot and has appeared to be tired late in the games. I don’t doubt that Luka will get it going before long, but right now, I’m taking a stand on it until I see him do it.
Extra Value/smash play: Donovan Mitchell– His price has dropped to $6,800. That is too cheap for the floor that he brings, and it makes for a solid value with upside.
other options: Desmond Bane, Josh Jackson, Kyrie Irving, Steph Curry
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Forwards
Cash: Thaddeus Young- With Lauri Markkanen going to be out again, the $3,500 price tag for Thad makes him a solid value play. In his first game back with Markkanen out, he played 27 minutes and scored 31.3 fantasy points. He might not break 30 fantasy points in this game, but 25 is a real possibility. I would take 25 fantasy points at that price all day. There is blowout potential here too. That could result in Thad seeing more minutes as well. It will depend on more news throughout the day, but I like Thad as a great value play.
Smash: Kevin Durant– In the four games that Durant has played, he has scored at least 40 fantasy points in all of them, including a 63.3 fantasy point performance in his last one. That 63.3 was against the same team he faces off against today. With this game likely to be high-scoring again, it should keep Durant’s minutes and usage high. At his price tag 5x value is 45.5 fantasy points. He is averaging more than that so far at 47 fantasy points per game. It’s always hard to project someone to go for 60 plus, but I think we see at least 55 from Durant with potential for a ceiling game. I will be loading KD in most of my lineups.
Pass: Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown– I will list them both as guys that I won’t have much exposure to. The price tag on Brown has reached $8,100. I’m not sure I trust him in the matchup with that price. It’s nothing against the talent of Brown, but more the matchup. There is a good chance this game is a blowout, and he nor Tatum will need to play the fourth quarter.
For Tatum, he has a sprained left thumb. He played with it, but what is the point in pushing the issue if they’re up early on the Pistons?? They could handle the Pistons without Tatum. The concerns of the blowout and the injury make me want to stay away from the duo. If I had to pick one to play, it would be Brown.
Extra Pass: Jimmy Butler– You can put Butler in the guards or forwards, but I won’t be putting him in my lineups. He has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. It’s early in the season, so there’s no reason to push him in his first game back. With the price tag and the injury issue, he is a pass for me.
other options: Anthony Davis (under 10k, always makes AD in GPP play), Giannis Antetokounmpo, Saddiq Bey (if no Blake Griffin, he is a good value play)
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Cash: John Collins– In the last matchup with the Nets, he went for 48 fantasy points. It’s been mentioned above about this being a high-scoring game again. The chance it has a lot of points and stays competitive makes Collins a great play. The Hawks will be without Danilo Gallinari, and De’Andre Hunter is questionable. With both of them possibly out, and Clint Capela capped around 20 minutes a game, it should lead to Collins playing heavy minutes. I think Collins is a great value at this price, and he’s a good GPP play.
Smash: Nikola Jokic– He has three triple-doubles in four games, and he was one rebound short of the fourth. In the last few seasons, we’ve been used to Jokic starting slow. That is not the case this year. The shorter layoff between the seasons may have helped Jokic get off to a faster start. I’m not sure what the difference is. The one thing I do know what the difference is has been my lineups with or without Jokic. He could have a career year with the pace he is on. While he is on a roll, I will continue to roll him out in my GPP lineups. With what could be solid value on the slate, it could be easy to get to Jokic and another top stud.
Pass: Jusuf Nurkic– The big man has got off to a slow start this season. He’s capable of putting up big numbers at any time, but he’s not scoring as much right now. In four games this season, he’s yet to score more than 13 real-life points. He has been below 30 fantasy points twice, and I don’t see this being the spot he has that 40 point game. I’m not going to play anyone from Portland that isn’t Damian Lillard or Cj McCollum until others are putting up better numbers more consistently.
Quick Pass: Tyler Herro– He got a price increase, and with Butler back, I don’t see him having the performances he has had over the last two games. When Butler has been on the court, it has taken usage away from Herro, and in those games, he had 19 and 25 fantasy points. Until he can put numbers up with Butler playing, this is an easy fade for me.
other fades: Keldon Johnson, Khris Middleton, Jamal Murray
other values: Cameron Payne (if no Chris Paul), Thomas Bryant, Cam Reddish, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson (at $4,800 he averages 5.5x value), Miles Bridges, Otto Porter Jr.
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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