We’re back for another showdown. This one is in Las Vegas and a division rivalry. For the Raiders, they need to win their last three games to keep their playoff hopes alive. As for the Chargers, their playoff hopes have been over for weeks. That hasn’t stopped them from trying to win and let their rookie QB Justin Herbert gain experience.
The Chargers know the Raiders need to win, and they would love to be the one to ruin those hopes. The first appearance in a primetime game for Herbert resulted in a four TD outing against the Saints. We will see if he shines in the spotlight again.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need to make the story make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever.
In this game, the Chargers vs. Raiders, we should have some points scored on both sides. The passing attacks for both teams are firmly in play. For the Raiders to win, they will need to get their ground game going. There is something to like for the Raiders ground game, but I don’t think that is where I’m going for this slate.
Vegas News: o/u 53, Raiders -3.5
Injury News: Chargers- Bryan Bulaga (out), Emeke Egbule (out), Denzel Perryman (D), Nasir Adderley (D), Mike Williams (Q), Keenan Allen (Q), Austin Ekeler (Q), Uchenna Nwosu (Q), Raiders- Johnathan Abram (out), Damon Arnette (out), Clelin Ferrell (out), Nicholas Morrow (out), Henry Ruggs (out)
On the Chargers side, I expect Allen, Ekeler, and Williams to play. The Raiders will have five guys out on defense. That should provide a boost to the Chargers’ offense.
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Herbert: The price tag of $11,800 makes Herbert the most expensive option. In the last two games, he has been held in check. He is a rookie. At some point, he was going to look like one. That has been the case in the last two games.
I will take 2 out of 12 games being under 19 fantasy points for a rookie all day. We get lucky because a matchup with the Raiders pass defense is a get right spot for Herbert. In the first meeting, Herbert finished with 26.4 fantasy points and over 300 yards passing.
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It’s not a guarantee or any long history, but a matchup that he has already succeeded in, and in primetime makes me think he has a BIG game. He will be looking to prove as a rookie that he can have bad games and bounce back. That is what I look for him to do in this one. I’m going to say that he will finish between 23-26 fantasy points.
Keenan Allen: He has been on the injury report but should play. There isn’t much to say, other than PLAY Keenan!!! In the last eight games, he has averaged right under 12 targets per game. Since week 1, he has scored at least 10 fantasy points in every game but one.
I expect there will be a decent amount of Captain Allen in this one as well. His floor and possible ceiling spot make Keenan as close to a lock as possible for me. Let’s not overthink this and jam him in!!!!
Austin Ekeler– The same can be said for Ekeler. Since his return, he has averaged 11 targets per game and 19 fantasy points per game. The Raiders have a bottom of the league run defense. I look for the Chargers and Ekeler to take advantage of this spot. I’m going to find as many ways that I can to have Ekeler, Herbert, and Allen together.
Mike Williams– The injury report suggests he should play. While Williams is a boom or bust type play, I would recommend having some exposure. I would rather Williams be ruled out so it would open up some cheaper plays. Those other cheap receivers might be sneaky plays with Williams active too. It’s hard to fade a player like Williams completely, but I will be underweight.
Hunter Henry– The TE position is always ugly and volatile. He always has the targets, but without a TD he won’t score more than 12-13 fantasy points. The Raiders have done a solid job against the position this year as well. If you think he finds the endzone, then he would be a good value. It’s hard to predict TD’s, so I will temper expectations on this one.
Tyron Johnson– If Williams plays, then I won’t have much. Now, if Williams is out, then I will have a decent amount of exposure. The injury report will be one to monitor. He could also be a sneaky play with Williams in the lineup. I wish he were cheaper to try that.
Kalen Ballage– The return of Ekeler has put Ballage on the backburner, but he’s still got seven carries in back-to-back games. He has also had six targets in the last two. For his $2,400 price tag, he is my favorite salary saver for the Chargers.
Embed from Getty ImagesDerek Carr– In his last two games, we have seen him score 28 and 35 fantasy points. Those were games that were close until the end or trailing. In those games, he attempted over 40 passes. That has been the trend for him this year. In the games they’re winning, he will attempt 32-35 passes, and the ones they’re losing, he will attempt 38 or more.
If you think this game is close, or the Chargers are winning, then volume won’t be an issue. I can see this being a shootout. For the Raiders to win, they will need the best version of Carr. With this being an important game and a divisional game, I believe we see that version of Carr.
He could be the highest scoring player on the slate. His price to Herbert’s is a $1,800 difference. That is good savings and one I will take advantage of. The early builds I’ve looked at so far, I like starting with Carr as the Captain.
Darren Waller– Every week he is the top receiving threat for the Raiders. In any game, he has the potential to break the slate. In the last matchup, he went for 13 fantasy points. The Raiders will be without Henry Ruggs, so that should be more targets to go around, and I expect them to lean on Waller.
It’s hard trying to fit all of these higher-priced guys in one lineup, so it’s really going to come down to the game script you like the most. When playing multiple lineups, I would be equal to the field with Waller.
Nelson Agholor– The loss of Ruggs should help Agholor as well. He is still the number two behind Waller. There should be opportunities for him to make an impact in this game. I don’t hate the spot, but I don’t love it either. I’m neutral on him right now. There are cheaper guys that I like more than Agholor from a savings stand-point.
Jalen Richard– Here is one of the cheaper guys I like. The salary saver for my lineups will likely be between Richard and Ballage. If you’re building lineups for the Chargers to be leading, then Richard would be a good salary saver to run it back with.
As a whole, I’m not on the Raiders run game. I know Josh Jacobs gets the carries, but he isn’t involved enough in the passing game. If he doesn’t score, he likely won’t be over 12-13 fantasy points. For a game that could be a shootout, there is a chance Jacobs could get phased out some.
Favorite Captains: Derek Carr, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen
Cheap Captains: Kalen Ballage, Jalen Richard
Other Options: Hunter Renfrow, Michael Badgley, Daniel Carlson
Cheap Options: Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards (both could see more chances with Ruggs out)
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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