Welcome back!!! It’s been a few days since the last showdown article. Hopefully, everyone had a good Christmas!! I don’t know about you guys, but I can’t wait until the year 2020 is over. It’s definitely been a year to forget, and one to remember (for the worst ever). Let’s see if we can’t get a win and put some of that Christmas money we spent back in our accounts. That will at least give us something to look forward to heading into the New Year.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need the story to make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever.
In this game, the Bills vs. Patriots, it’s a division rivalry, but this isn’t going to be the same type of game we’ve seen for the last few years. The tables have turned, and the division runs through Buffalo this year. That is what I expect to happen in this one. I expect Buffalo to get the win and to be able to rest some players next week.
For the Bills to win, it will be because of the play of Josh Allen. The offense goes as Allen does. I’m not really on the run game for the Bills. We could have one of the guys have a decent game, but their prices and what they bring each week doesn’t bring much to the table for me.
Vegas News: o/u 46, Buffalo -7
Injury News: The Patriots had 20 guys questionable this week, but all have been limited. The one that would matter most for me is running back Damien Harris. If Harris were to miss, it would make Sony Michel and James White interesting plays. That is the news to monitor.
Josh Allen– He is the most expensive guy on the slate, and at $12,600, he is worth every $$$ of that. In the last 4 out of 6 games, he has had 29 to 40 fantasy points. The lowest-scoring game he has had all year has been 13 points against this same New England team.
It’s easy to see how that was his lowest-scoring game of the year. These division rivalry games can be low scoring, and the records don’t matter. When you have that and one of the greatest coaches ever on the other sideline, it can slow some things down. In this game, I don’t think that’s the case. In the first meeting, Allen wasn’t playing anywhere near the level he has over the last few games.
If the Bills are going to win, it will be because of the play of Allen. I expect them to win easily, so I believe Allen will have a big game. The Bills want the win and can use a rest week, so don’t overthink this spot and play Allen.
Stefon Diggs– The combo of Diggs and Allen has been as consistent as they come. There isn’t any reason to believe that changes this week. He is the only receiver to score at least 10 points in every game this year. In the last six games, he has scored 19 points or more. He’s had ten or more catches in 4 of his last 5.
The type of consistency and volume makes him a must-play on this slate, in my opinion. There are two guys on this slate that could break the slate and kill you if that happens and you don’t have them. One of those guys is Diggs, and the other is Josh Allen. Most of my lineups will start with Diggs and Allen and then go from there, but I believe both guys are in the winning lineup.
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Cole Beasley– This has been a solid year for Beasley. He gets overlooked more than he should. I like to attack New England in the slot, and Beasley is a good one to do that with. In the last five games, he’s averaged almost ten targets per game. That is hard to pass up for me in this spot. I like to attack the Patriots in the slot, and knowing I’m going to get ten good targets, it’s hard to pass up. It might be hard to get Beasley in with Allen and Diggs, but I will be trying anyway that I can to make it happen.
Dawson Knox– This is a value play only for me. He is a mid-range salary saver that could find the end zone. In the last four games, he has found the end zone three times. If you think there is a chance he can score again, then he would provide good value. The only issue is that if he doesn’t score, you’re going to have to make it up somewhere. His workload isn’t consistent enough for me to have a lot of exposure. The price isn’t high, but if he gets zero or has a floor game, he will hurt you on this showdown. So, tread lightly here.
Gabriel Davis– The cheapest guy for the Bills I would consider playing is Davis. That is except for the kicker Tyler Bass. Since John Brown has gone down, Davis has had a consistent role in the offense. He has been a good deep threat and has shown he can do more than that too. In the last five games, he has scored in four of them. The game last week broke his scoring streak. It might just be me, but I have that feeling that he finds the endzone in this one. I will be using the Bills receivers as much as I can and looking to the Patriots’ side for the cheaper punt plays.
Embed from Getty ImagesCam Newton– In the first meeting with Buffalo, he had some success and scored 19 fantasy points. The problem is the Patriots’ offense as a whole has got considerably worse. There is a path to Cam having success in this one, and I think that comes from the legs of Cam.
With the team playing the way they have, the best way to slow the Bills’ offense down would be to use the ground game to run the clock. If the Patriots aren’t able to do that, it will put them playing from behind. In either scenario, I can see multiple paths for Cam turning in a good fantasy day.
Sony Michel– The news to monitor is about Damien Harris. If Harris were to be ruled out, I have an interest in Michel. Since he’s been back, he has averaged about nine carries per game. If the game plans to keep the Bills offense on the sideline, Michel should see 12 or more carries, and you can run on the Bills’ defense. We will monitor the Harris news before we can make this decision.
Damiere Byrd– He is my favorite cheaper option. The price for a starting receiver who has had seven targets or more in the last 4 out of 6 games is interesting. He hasn’t done much with the targets lately, but Byrd has the speed to take one to the house at any time. I will be looking to use Byrd for my salary saving option with upside.
N’Keal Harry– The price is good, and one that can save you some salary, but Harry is likely to get the Tre’Davious White coverage. If that is the case, then Harry is not going to be in many of my lineups. The only reason to play Harry is, you like what you have built so far and can’t get to Byrd or someone.
We saw the Raiders game when Marcus Mariotta come in and win some guys some big money. That has been the running joke on showdown slates since. I normally would say don’t waste the lineup, but the Patriots have nothing to play for so, they may want to give Jarrett Stidham some more time to see what they have in him. That is also if Cam Newton is playing bad. So, if you’re playing multiple lineups, this could be a game that trick may work out.
Embed from Getty ImagesFavorite Captains- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley
Cheap Captains- Gabriel Davis, Damiere Byrd
Other Options: Tyler Bass, James White, Jarrett Stidham (it’s 2020, so crazy stuff happens)
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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