DraftKings Spade or Fade: DFS Advice for Week 1 (9/12/21)

Week 1 is here! And, with it comes my new series on GoingFor2, Spade or Fade. A Spade is one of my top plays, based on price/projection, and a Fade, well, is someone I’m fading. I will try to stay away from the obvious fades each week and try to find someone that might be a little higher owned, but someone I just don’t like for whatever reason. Here we go…

Quarterbacks

Spade | Jalen Hurts (PHI) $6,400 @ ATL

The Falcons last season gave up the most yards through the air in the entire league. Yes, I know Hurts isn’t the best passer and won’t take advantage of this weak secondary as an elite QB would, but the Falcons also gave up the fourth-most scamble yards (non-designed runs) to QBs in 2021. The Falcons were also near the bottom of the league in DVOA versus the tight end position and Hurts loved to target the TE last season with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert both getting looks.

Fade | Russell Wilson (SEA) $7,000 @ IND

The line on this game opened at 52, which I thought was very high and I was right. The public has moved the line to 49, and I still think it should be closer to 45. We have two teams that want to run the ball…a lot. That will shorten the game considerably. It looks like Carson Wentz may be ready for Week 1, which does help the Colts offense, but I still think this game will be too low-scoring to trust playing Wilson at $7,000.

Running Backs

Spade | Dalvin Cook (MIN) $9,100 @ CIN

The Bengals were 21st in rushing DVOA (per FantasyOutsiders) in 2020, and they won’t be much better in 2021. Cook led all running backs of runs inside the 15-yard line with 26 such runs, converting 10 of them for touchdowns — Cam Newton and Alvin Kamara were the only other players to have double-digit rushing touchdowns on runs inside the 15.

Spade | Najee Harris (PIT) $6,300 @ BUF

The Bills defense was middle of the road in DVOA against the run in 2020, and they also ranked in the middle in passing DVOA to the running backs. Because of Najee Harris’ receiving ability, he is game-script proof. Everyone wants to point to the offensive line as a reason to not like Harris, but for fantasy purposes, it might actually help him. When Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass and he has 340-pound linemen in his face, who do you think he is going to dump it down to?

Wide Receivers

Spade | Calvin Ridley (ATL) $7,900 vs. PHI

I will have a lot of exposure to this game, with Ridley at the top of my list. The Eagles were 24th in DVOA versus the pass in 2020, and dead last in DVOA versus the teams opposing No. 1 wide receiver. Matt Ryan also loves playing at home and loves home openers even more. In his last three home openers, Ryan has completed 70-percent of his passes for 1,042 yards 7TDs and 5INTs. In Ridley’s home opener last season he caught 9 passes on 12 targets for 130 yards and 2 TDs.

Fade | All Steelers WRs @ BUF

One of the Steelers wide receivers is going to have a big game — good luck getting it right. If you’re playing 150 lineups, have exposure to all three, if you’re only playing a handful of lineups, fade them all.

Tight Ends

Spade | Kyle Pitts (ATL) $4,400 vs. PHI

The Eagles were ranked 26th in passing DVOA when the tight end was the target. Pitts might be the most targetted player in this game next to Ridley — Do smell a Ryan/Ridley/Pitts stack?

Fade | Travis Kelce (KC) $8,300 vs. CLE

Kelce had an amazing season last year. Looking at season-long stats, he scored 141 more points than the No. 3 TE, Logan Thomas — Hunter Henry, the No. 12 TE had a 145 points total. In other words, playing Kelce last season was like having two TE1s playing one position. So why fade him against a team that is historically bad against tight ends? Price.

If Kelce were a wide receiver, he’d be tied with Devonta Adams for the most expensive wide receiver. I’d much rather have a top-flight wide receiver than to pay that much for a tight end.

Defense

Spade | Jacksonville Jaguars $2,600 @ HOU

Man, the Texans look so bad on paper. The Jags defense doesn’t look great either, but the Texans are just that bad that I’m willing to pay $2,600.

Fade | New York Giants $3,800 vs. DEN

The Giant’s defense was one of the bright spots last year, and will likely be pretty good this season, but the Broncos are going to play a style that will limit the effectiveness of that Giants defense — at least from a fantasy perspective. By naming Mr. Conservative, Teddy Bridgewater, their starting QB, and drafting running back Javonte Williams, the Broncos sent a clear message. We are going to run the ball, not turn it over with Bridgewater as our QB, and play good defense. That limits the Giant’s ability for picks and sacks and therefore leaves me with no interest in the Giants.

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