Baltimore (Covid) Ravens VS. Pittsburgh Steelers 12/02/2020 3:40 pm EST
As it stands now, this game is going to be played on Wednesday, December 2nd. It has changed multiple times, and there has still been news about players testing positive daily. I expect the game to proceed this time, but actively monitoring changes is necessary. The game isn’t going to be the matchup we had hoped it was going to be, but it is still the biggest rivalry in the NFL- so anything can happen. Baltimore is fortunate to have a Quarterback because they could be in a situation like the Denver Broncos were. With the Ravens only having 38 players out of their 53 man roster, it’s going to be a war of attrition for them.
Baltimore Inactives: The main ones. It would be easier to say who they have available at this point.
Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Matthew Judon, Willie Snead, Calais Campbell, Patrick Mekari, Matt Skura, Patrick Ricard, Will Holden
Since Lamar is out, Robert Griffin III (RG3) will need to be the guy under center in a big game for playoff implications. The delays were able to help them get their top two running backs, Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins– healthy enough to play. The offensive line is going to be nothing like what they normally put on the field. The Ravens were able to activate guard D.J Fluker, which should help them some, but they’re going to be moving guys around and starting rookies that haven’t played a snap in the NFL yet.
With all of the problems the Ravens will experience on the line against a team that gets pressure like Pittsburgh, it doesn’t bode well for the offense. When it comes to the offensive game plan, I believe they will lean heavily on Ingram, Dobbins, and Gus Edwards. This year the passing game has really gone through Andrews and Snead, and without both of them, that only makes RG3’s job that much harder. The Ravens are likely to be without Brandon Williams, Calais Campbell, Matthew Judon, and Pernell Mcphee.
This is rough for Baltimore’s defense, but great for the Steelers running game. Those guys, especially Williams and Campbell, are big losses. Without them, Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball on the ground, and it should give Ben Roethlisberger more time in the pocket.
Steelers Inactives:
James Conner, Stephon Tuitt, Jaylen Samuels, Joe Haden (questionable)
The Steelers should be aggravated that the league has moved their schedule around again. They have already adjusted for week four, and now this will put them playing three games in 12 days. I would think they will exert their aggravations on the Ravens and hit them harder than Covid has. The loss of Conner doesn’t help their ground game. I believe Benny Snell has shown he is more than capable of assuming the full workload.
Vegas information: o/u 42, Pittsburgh -10
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It’s rare to see this type of spread in this rivalry, but all things considered, even with big playoff implications for Baltimore- it’s not hard to see why the spread is what it is now. I’m going to give out some players I think could help with some showdown lineups, and it will be based on DraftKing’s pricing and structure.
Ben Roethlisberger: This one is obvious considering all the injury news. The injuries to the Ravens D-line and Linebacker corps make Ben a better play than I would have originally thought. The offensive line should continue giving him time in the pocket and allow him to make the throws he needs to. If this game goes the way I think it will, you will need Ben in your lineup. There really aren’t any standout players in spots to have ceiling games. We might see one guy blow up and some others hit value, or close to it. This isn’t a spot where I think Ben has a big day and multiple touchdowns; just a spot I don’t see many guys outscoring him on the showdown slate.
Benny Snell: With James Conner out, the Steelers will lean heavily on Snell. In a spot where he only has one other guy to compete with, it is hard not to see a path to twenty plus touches or targets. This will be a popular play (for good reason) and one that I will be overweight on. The Steelers have to establish the ground game, and this spot is a great chance for it. Typically I wouldn’t go against the Ravens run defense, but their injuries establish a vantage point for the Steelers. You should be able to lock Snell into your lineups, and if you play multi-entry, go with Captain Snell some as well.
Anthony Mcfarland: The Steelers have tried to utilize his speed and gave him some chances this season. In this game, Snell and Mcfarland are the only backs available. For that reason, I see Mcfarland getting a little more chances than normal. They are likely to use him as the 3rd down and passing game back. Priced at $2,600, I can see Snell getting enough targets and carries to pay that off, and then some.
I normally wouldn’t put two backs on the same team in the lineup together, but the combo of them both is under $12,000. If we figure that both of them will have all the running back chances, then the price tag for both really isn’t a bad play in this situation.
Diontae Johnson: He is just a target machine, and in the last game, he had a 34 percent target share with 16 targets on 46 attempts. In the nine games he has played, he had ten or more targets in six of them, and in two of the games, he was hurt early. In the one game against Baltimore, he only had three targets and 1.6 fantasy points. You have to overlook this stat line.
At the beginning of the game, it was announced he was hurt but stayed on the field. It wouldn’t surprise me if they used him as a decoy more than anything after the injury. Without Diontae on the field, it would have made covering the other receivers, easier. This game will have a lot of the short and quick passing game most likely, and that is where Diontae has excelled this year. The other receivers can have good games, but I think they will have to get in the endzone to have a good fantasy game. With Diontae, he can go for twenty plus fantasy points without a TD.
Eric Ebron: This is probably my favorite play on the board in GPP. In the last matchup, Ebron went for 14 fantasy points, but that damage wasn’t until late in the game. Once they found the mismatch with Ebron they started to target him, and I look for them to go back to that early and often. In the offense, he tends to get overlooked sometimes, but he has stepped up in big moments and been there for Ben when he is needed. There are only two games this year that he has had less than five targets, and in the last five games- he has averaged 6.4 targets per game. When building multiple lineups, I would definitely lock Ebron in a few.
Robert Griffin III: Since the delays, they have been able to adjust the price on RG3. The price has increased to $8,400 and even with a bad matchup at that price, he is likely to not hurt you. The way I foresee the game playing out, I can predict some garbage time points here. If the game is going to be competitive for any amount of time, it will be because of RG3 playing well enough to hit value at least. He may not have the best game, but just like the situation with Ben, it’s hard to see many people on the Baltimore side outscoring him.
J.K. Dobbins: The injuries to the line have been mentioned numerous times, and it definitely won’t make it easy on Dobbins. This is more of a volume and talent-based play than anything. If one of the backs were going to have some success in the game, my bet would be on Dobbins. In the last matchup, he ran for 113 yards on 15 carries with a few big gains. The offense without Lamar, Andrews, and Snead will have a different look to it. Referencing the last game alone- that is 13 carries and 14 targets that have to go somewhere. It would seem like a safe bet that Dobbins is the one who benefits from that.
Gus Edwards: There aren’t any receivers for Baltimore that I will have much exposure to, so this is just what I think is the best pivot off Dobbins. Like Dobbins in the last game, Gus ran for 87 yards and a touchdown, and with a 5.1 yards per carry average over two seasons- he is capable of another solid game in this spot.
The Steelers running back situation is different because it should just be two guys competing for snaps. If Baltimore only had two backs, then you could apply the same strategy with playing both backs. The problem is with Mark Ingram in the mix; it’s hard to trust that. Since we have to play at least one Baltimore player, my pick is one of the three mentioned, or the kicker Justin Tucker.
Honorable mentions: Justin Tucker, Chris Boswell, Steelers Defense, Devin Duvernay
Good luck to everyone, and may variance and the DFS gods be with you.
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