Welcome back!!! If you followed my first showdown article, then the layout will be the same. This Sunday has been on par with the rest of this season so far. We had the Giants beat the Seahawks. The Jaguars took the Vikings to overtime. Now we have the Broncos beating the Chiefs at this moment in time. The Chiefs losing to them would definitely be normal for 2020. The Chiefs had a touchdown that they should have challenged. We will see if that comes back to bite them later in the game or not.
When it comes to the showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. The lineup should tell a story. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need to make that story make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever. In this game with the Bills and 49ers, there are a few different ways to tell the story. At this point, I’m still trying to figure out which story I want to tell for tomorrow night. Since the story is un-written so far, I will give some of the players I like and my reasoning. The obvious guys like Steve Young and Jerry Rice I won’t mention.
Vegas Information: o/u 47, Buffalo +1
Injury News: Buffalo (none), San Francisco (CB K’Waun Williams is out, and CB Emmanuel Mosley is questionable)
Josh Allen: He has a price of $11,600 and is the top spend up option. In the last three games, Allen has averaged 28.6 fantasy points per game. On the year, he is averaging 26 fantasy points per game. Those are good numbers, and he has provided us a solid floor each week. While he has also shown the upside that he brings with his running ability. The 49ers’ pass defense is top four in yards per game over the year. Their defense over the season has allowed just 206 yards per game and 199 in the last 3, but surprisingly at home, they give up an average of 246 yards per game. The game is actually in Arizona, so I’m not sure if that would fall under the home or away average?? Either way, I like this spot for Allen. Before they shut the Rams down last week, the 49ers gave up an average of 32 points per game in their last three. If the Bills are going to win, it will be because of the arm and legs of Josh Allen.
Stephon Diggs: If I told you there are two receivers this year who haven’t scored below ten fantasy points in a game, would you be able to guess them?? If you said Corey Davis and Stephon Diggs you would be right. The change of scenery for Diggs has been great for his career and for Josh Allen’s. In 9 out of 11 games this year, Diggs has seen at least eight targets, and five of those over ten targets. That kind of volume for a guy as good as Diggs is, sign me up, even in tough matchups. It should be a battle with Richard Sherman or Jason Verrett. Neither of those guys presents an easy matchup for Diggs, but the Bills need to win, and they will force it to him in this game no matter who is lined up with him. I will have Diggs in most of my lineups (that means you should fade) and just take the talent and volume no matter the matchup.
Cole Beasley: Last week Beasley threw a touchdown pass to get him to nine fantasy points. We shouldn’t expect that again, but what we should expect is for Beasley to get at least his six or more targets. There are only four games this year that he hasn’t had at least six targets, and with the pass rush of the 49ers, it will cause some quick throws. The quicker throws will likely add a few more targets for Beasley in this one. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have ten or more targets in this. Most weeks he quietly gets 12 to 15 fantasy points and has been consistently in that range all year. While some will look at Gabriel Davis in the John Brown role again, I will go to Beasley. This sets up to be a game where they should rely on Beasley.
Embed from Getty ImagesBrandon Aiyuk: As long as Aiyuk is back in the lineup, I will have a lot of interest. In his last three games, he has averaged 10.3 targets per game. The offense has been trying to get Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel involved in any way they can, and as long as it’s Levi Wallace that matches up with Aiyuk, I will be going to Aiyuk as the main play from San Fran. If it comes out that Tre’Davious White will be on Aiyuk, it would lower my exposure to him. The charts I’ve seen have Wallace on Aiyuk, and that is the assumption I’m going with when I build now.
Deebo Samuel: In GPP you definitely need to have some exposure here, but not as much if he will be matched up with White most game. In the first game back for Deebo, he saw 13 targets and he took advantage of those targets. I just don’t see him getting peppered with targets in a matchup with White. As it gets closer I may split some exposure between Aiyuk and Samuel, that way if the matchup news isn’t what we see on the field.
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Jordan Reed: The matchup is good, and even though he didn’t produce from a fantasy standpoint, he did have six targets last game. There are two places I have continuously attacked Buffalo at this year, and that is at the tight end and the slot. It has been good to me this year, and I see no reason to not go back to the well in this one. I should have noted that about Brandon Aiyuk as well, and using him to attack the slot.
Buffalo run game: If you really have to pick one of Devin Singletary or Zack Moss, I lean Singletary in this matchup. In the last three games, there has been only one that has more than ten carries. The way the run defense for the 49ers is, you don’t want to run up the middle constantly. That formula will likely get you nowhere, and that is the type of game that favors a runner like Moss. The Bills will need someone who can get outside and one who is better in the passing game. For those reasons, I like Singletary more than Moss, but I really don’t like either that much. The lineups I have one of them in will be the ones where they fit the story I’m writing, and that is it.
San Francisco running game: This backfield is just hard to predict and too many mouths that could be fed. Last week Raheem Mostert came back and took over the bulk of the carries. The only back that I would play with confidence is Mostert. The only knock on Mostert is his involvement in the passing game, but if he is getting the bulk of the load and the goal line work, I think it can make up for his lack of pass-game work. As long as he had no setbacks from the last game he could see more than 20 touches in this one. As a cheap flier, you could take a chance on one of the other backs and hope for the offense to be in catch up mode. We’re not sure about how much Tevin Coleman will be involved, but if you want to take a flier on those guys, I would put them in this order; Jerrick Mckinnon, Jeff Wilson Jr, and Tevin Coleman.
The game script and story I’m leaning toward is the Buffalo passing game and the San Fran quick passing game with some of their ground game sprinkled in. This means you should definitely go heavy on the Bills run game and heavy on the 49ers run game because it’s DFS and never goes the way we think.
Other players to consider: Tyler Bass, Robbie Gould, Isaiah Mckenzie (cheap punt), Bills D, 49ers D, Gabriel Davis, and Kendrick Bourne (if any news of Aiyuk being out or limited especially)
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!!
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