Dynasty Buy Low Sell High Players Headed into Week 4

I want to start off by apologizing to our readers for last week not being able to publish an article for you all. Due to technical difficulties, I had lost my entire article and could not bring myself to rewrite all of it. I pride myself in putting a lot of effort into what I write, and never want to rush through it just to get something out to you all. I decided to not write and publish an article as a result. With that said, I am back at it, with your Week 4 buy low sell high dynasty players. As I researched and picked the players I wanted to write about, it just so happens, that every player but one I picked was a running back and considering the number of injuries at that position, it is only fitting.

Buy Low

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RB David Montgomery (CHI)

Not exactly how I imagined David Montgomery taking over this backfield, but hey, you take it however way you can get it right? With Tarik Cohen’s season officially over, this backfield belongs to Montgomery. He has not been the most efficient with the touches he has had, 13th in the league in evaded tackles (15),21st in yard per touch (5.2 yards), and 16th in rushing yards per game (191) just to name a few stats. His target share (average of 3 targets per game), 52% of total snap share are surely going to increase now, and the benching of Trubisky should open the running lanes as teams will have to respect Nick Foles (Just look at what he did against the Falcons in week 3). Now is a good time to buy low while his value is still relatively low given the opportunity he has for the remainder of the season. 

RB Joe Mixon (CIN)

What isn’t the problem here? Mixon’s 78.2% opportunity share is ranked 6th in the NFL, 6th in carries (52), 5th in routes ran (72), the problem is what he is doing with all these touches and opportunity, ranking in the bottom 17 in just about every offensive category you can think of. How bad is his efficiency? Mixon is ranked outside the top 20 in rushes against every offensive formation. He has finished outside RB26 in all three games so far, and that is not what you expect from a running back of his caliber. Averaging a career-worst 3.15 yards per carry, and sitting at RB38 in PPR leagues, Mixon’s dynasty value could no the any lower right now. The talent is not the problem here, the offensive line will also need to improve it’s play in order for Mixon’s opportunities to return more upside. Dynasty is all about the long haul, go and buy low while you can. 

RB Tarik Cohen (CHI)

Cohen’s value was already relatively low given his low usage this season, and in fantasy football especially in dynasty, you are always looking to get a discount how and when you can. There isn’t a better time where that applies then now. Having signed an extension with the Bears, only 25 years old, Cohen has upside which we have seen from the last two seasons when he had over 70 receptions. He is a major discount right now, who can return major ROI in dynasty and one that I am buying where I can.

WR D.J. Moore (CAR)

Only 23 years old, and on his rookie contract, D.J. Moore was expected to be a high WR2, with weekly WR1 upside, but instead he is currently sitting as WR28 in PPR scoring. The opportunity is not the issue as he has been on the field for 91.% or more of the offensive snaps, and has ran a minimum of 28 routes, and up until last week he had seen at least 9 targets per game. 9th in the league in targets, and commanding the 11th most target share in the league, while 3rd in the league in air yards, the problem for Moore has been yards after catch (96th in the league with 17!!!!), and 80.8% of his targets have been considered catchable, which ranks 56th in the league. The upside is there for D.J.Moore to improve significantly, but that also relies on the Teddy Bridgewater getting him the ball in open space better. I am attempting to buy him low right now considering his production. If you want to wait a week you certainly can because Week 4 he gets Patrick Peterson.

Sell High 

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RB Chris Carson (SEA)

Entering age 26 season, Chris Carson has been one of the most under-appreciated and valued fantasy running backs period. A staple of consistency when he is on the field finishing RB15 in 2018 and RB12 in 2019 (PPR Scoring). Outside of 2017 where he only played 4 games, Carson has played at least 14 games back to back seasons. In both those seasons, he has finished with 9 total touchdowns. Currently, through 3 weeks he sits at RB9 overall, that is while seeing only 60.3% (17th) of the offensive snaps, 37 total carries (24th), 12 targets (14th), 22h in red-zone touches (8), and running 58 routes (14th). Where Carson is saving his season is with the 3 receiving touchdowns he has through 3 games. His efficiency has also dropped from the past two seasons so far, ranking in the bottom 20 in every formation based metric (except for the base formation) and the yards he produces (35 yards which ranks 35th in the league). Carson is a high RB2 with a high percentage of RB1 upside weekly, I just want to sell while the stock is red hot, especially if you want to consider the Seahawks only have $5.9 million in cap space and Carson is entering the final year of his rookie deal.

RB Rex Burkhead (NE)

A lot of what made Burkhead have the game he had was because James White was not playing (His father passed away in a car accident). Week 1 when James White was active, Burkhead only had a total of 7 touches (all carries) and only was on the field for 31.1% of the snaps, while totaling 32 yards. Since White has been out, Burkhead has see snap share of 72.5% and 48.5% in back to back weeks, averaging 12.5 touches a game. His production is a product of James White being absent more than he deserving of the touches. Sell Burkhead while he is on a high for future picks or a sleeper who can return potentially more consistent value. 

RB Mike Davis (CAR)

Not only if you have Christian McCaffrey, this goes for everyone who had or paid FAAB to acquire Mike Davis, last week without playing a full game, he finished with 15.5 fantasy points with a 8 reception 74 yard day. Week 3, he had 21 total touches for 91 total yards and a touchdown, good for RB9 finish. He is not going to put up CMC numbers, but his usage alone projects him to be a high RB2 especially in PPR. Handcuffs have some low trade value normally, but when one of those handcuffs get the starting job for an extended period time it increases their value to it’s peak. That is the case with Davis. Sell him, as his value will never be higher than it is right now. 

RB James Robinson (JAC)

Yeah we all saw James Robinson, the fantasy football RB5, 3rd in receiving yards, 6th in fantasy points per game and 2nd in yards per reception, coming from a mile away right? Every year we see players like Robinson come out of nowhere to blow the fantasy world minds, but not a lot of us picked Robinson to be that guy. There are definitely a few red flags to consider though, here are his weekly offensive snap share,

Week 1: 81.4%

Week 2: 52.8%

Week 3: 50.8%

He is 18th in the league in total offensive snap share (59.2%), outside the top 12 in yards per carry out of all formations except when running under the center where he ranks 11th. His 6 red zone touches are ranked 35th in the league. These type of numbers are hard to sustain, especially when the volume is just not there, with Chris Thompson and Laviska Shenault both being involved heavily in the offense as the season progresses, it is hard for me to trust Robinson to continue this pace especially with the Jaguars offense expected to keep them in games with their defense being one of the worst in the league.  

 

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