Just when we thought we were out of the woods of any major injuries to key players, Dak Prescott goes down with a brutal injury, that may not only have implications for this season but for his future outlook physically and even with the Dallas Cowboys. Remember he was in a contract year, and bet on himself to perform at a level that would make him the highest-paid quarterback in this league. Hard to argue that he was not on his way to proving exactly that with his stellar play. In dynasty, knowing a player’s contract, the team’s salary cap space and player durability/age are all important considerations to be aware of when making dynasty trades or draft picks. I will begin to incorporate that understanding into my analysis as the season continues. With that said, let’s dive into the week 6 dynasty buy low sell high players.
Buy Low
WR Amari Cooper (DAL)
Let’s talk about his contract first as that ties into my buy-low window for him. He signed a 5 year $100 million contract in the offseason, out of which $60 million was guaranteed. 2022 is when the Dallas Cowboys can possibly, just possibly opt out of the deal, and take a $6 million dead cap hit, versus a cap hit of $20 million by keeping him. Now if CeeDee Lamb continues to ascend in this offense, this is a very possible scenario. You know what else coincides with 2022? Michael Gallup’s contract year, and in all likelihood the Cowboys can extend him for significantly less than what Cooper would cost them at that point. Of course so much can happen between now and 2022, but just keep this in mind as a risk as I make my case to why he is a buy low in dynasty, even though I have probably done enough damage to deter you from it.
Before the week 5 game, Cooper had not seen fewer than 9 targets in a game. Actually that 9 target game was his lowest of the season entering week 5. His snap share in week 5 happened to be his lowest as well to date, at 74.2%, which resulted in him seeing just 4 targets on 25 routes turning that into a 2-23 stat line. Not very pretty, and having lost Dak Prescott for the year, this will be the window to buy low on Cooper and a good case can be made for it with Dalton taking over. But this was exactly why the Cowboys invested in Andy Dalton to begin with. For this very situation, and we know Dalton is not your ordinary backup. He was fairly good as a Bengal, and formed a great connection with A.J. Green in his prime which he now has with Cooper. We will likely see a drop in Cooper’s productivity which is expected because Dalton is not Prescott, but this is a dynasty article, and you always look for the value where you can find it. At just 26, Cooper has plenty to offer for the next at least two years.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster (PIT)
Through 5 weeks JuJu Smith-Schuster is WR31 in PPR. How bad is that? He is behind the likes of Keelan Cole, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders just to name a few. Drafted in the late 2nd to early 3rd rounds of most fantasy drafts, it is safe to say Juju has not lived up to the investment you made in him in your startup dynasty leagues. In a contract year, it is safe to wonder if the Steelers are going to let Juju walk and move forward with the trio of James Washington, Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson. With a cap space of just $9,664,166, unless the Juju takes a team-friendly deal, I do not see how he is a steeler next year. The buy low window for Juju is now. 4 weeks though the season, he has seen more than 6 targets just once, and is yet to see more than 8 in a given game. What is even worse is he has not topped 50 yards outside of week 1. What is more troubling is his usage, his Snape share of 82.3% ranks 34th amongst WR’s, his total routes ran (138) is 45th, 49th in targets (24), his 17% target share is ranked 46th. I can continue share the numbers on how bleak this season has looked for Juju, but for all the reason mentioned above, the talent isn’t the issue. The opportunity is, and that is why his buy-low window is now, and it isn’t going to get any lower than this. Even if he isn’t a Steeler next year, you are buying on the talent where we have seen what his ceiling is in the right situation. Best part is, you don’t have to pay the premium you would have had to, had he been performing up to the standard his draft capital originally expected.
RB Leveon Bell (KC)
This is more for you win now dynasty teams. There is some risk associated here, as we do not know how this backfield is going to play out and you can easily make the case that Bell is more of a sell high and I totally get that, but I am going to make the case why he is a buy low. CEH has a week before Bell is eligible to play for the Chiefs per the COVID guidelines. Bell is in his age 28 season, and given the amount of hits he has taken in his career, I would say he is more in the late 29 to 30 year range. CEH has failed on short-yardage situations (7 goal lines touches (3rd in the league) and yet only 1 rushing touchdown!!!!!!)), pass protection and running between the tackles, something Bell excels at over CEH. Bell could have gone to the Bills or Dolphins, but chose the Chiefs. I just find it hard to believe Bell would choose them and expecting to not be the lead back once he is eligible to play. Similarly to what I wrote about Devonta Freeman a few weeks ago, Bell came here expecting to be the lead back. He has all the talent in the world, and this offense is built to carry any running back to fantasy stardom, even though CEH has not lived up to that standard. Maybe he has growing pains for a rookie who is trying to still get to the pace of the NFL standards. Andy Reid will maximize Bell’s value where it fits best and last I checked that’s in every aspect of the game. For the time being I value Bell as a high flex as his floor (Low RB2 out of the gate). Buy his value while it is low enough.
Sell high
WR Mike Evans (TB)
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I just find this hilarious and have to start off with the yards for every Evans touchdown this season
1
1
2
2
6
23
Come on man, that is just too funny and he somehow still is 20th in air yards, which given those short touchdowns is actually very impressive. He leads the league in touchdowns (6) and still ranks WR12 in PPR leagues. Evans ranks 41st in target share (18.3%), 20th in total targets (35), 22nd in total offensive snaps (86.4%), and worst of all his QB play isn’t that much better, especially when you are throwing 28.6% of his targets as uncatchable. 10 of the 35 targets Evans has seen were considered uncatchable. Evans ranks 31st in receiving yards (271) and 20th in receptions (22). The touchdown rate simply is not sustainable, and it is what has kept his fantasy relevance as high as it has been. With Brady signed through next season, if you can get someone like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, or DeAndre Hopkins, I look to make that trade and I be saying you sold mighty high on Evans.
RB Alexander Mattison (MIN)
Here I am, back at my backup running back value shenanigans. First it was Mike Davis (I hope you sold him already), David Montgomery (I hope you are beginning to benefit from having him), and now I am going to preach the same for Alexander Mattison. He is one of the premium handcuffs to own in fantasy football, for reasons just like the one we face today. Dalvin Cook has a significant history of injuries, and you can use that fact along with the fact he is starting this week (Cook has already been ruled out). Mattison had over 136 scrimmage yards last week resulting 16.6 fantasy points. A handcuff’s value is never higher than when he actually is starting a game. Sell high on him and use the fact that he has seen a red-zone carry multiple times in every game but one this year. The guy is getting the usage even when cook is healthy. Use these facts to your advantage and trade him for value you wouldn’t see otherwise.
WR Odell Beckham (CLE)
I am a Giants fan, and I remember when Odell Beckham Jr. became a Brown. I had said from the start, his best days were behind him, and I have not wavered from that stance. Odell himself has said the same. Entering week 6, Beckham has not seen more than 10 targets this year, or has had more than 5 receptions. Take out the game against the Cowboys, because any one of us could score against them, he has only one touchdown, yet to top 74 receiving yards. Even in that game, he only had 81 yards on 146 air yards!!!!!. Touchdowns are nice, but what makes the elite receivers elite is that they combine opportunity with efficiency, which results in consistent performances. Something Odell lacks on this team. Of the 39 targets he has received 28 were considered catchable, at that rate Beckham is on pace for 124 targets which would result in just 90 targets deemed catchable. That puts him on pace for 85 to 90 receptions as his ceiling, and 940 yards. If you can in return get someone like Tyler Boyd I make that trade instantly.
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