The All-Star Weekend has come and gone and now the NBA is taking a breather before the stretch run of the season. As we look at the Eastern Conference going into the Post-All Star Break, the Cleveland Cavaliers hold a three-game edge over the Toronto Raptors for first place. I think it’s safe to say that most people expect the Cavaliers to make it to the NBA Finals for a second straight year (the sixth straight year a Lebron-led team has made it). But what are the chances they could be knocked off along the way? I’ll explore that question as I work backward from eighth to second in the conference standings (as of February 16, 2016) for the teams currently in playoff standing and rate their chances on a scale of 1 to 10. My predictions are based on current rosters and assuming all players that are supposed to be healthy come playoff time are healthy.
Current 8th Seed: Charlotte Hornets
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (1-1)
The Hornets (still difficult not to type Bobcats) are a young athletic team that is looking to make the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. They lost to the Cavs late in November 95-90 while Cleveland was missing Kyrie Irving, but beat them in February behind a huge second half rally 106-97. The Hornets were without Al Jefferson in the win. While Jefferson could return for the postseason and Nick Batum and Kemba Walker could make life tough Lebron and Kyrie in a playoff series, I think the Cavs are way too talented from top to bottom to lose a 7 game series to Charlotte. Cleveland probably wins this series in 5
Official Chance: 1 out of 10
Current 7th Seed: Chicago Bulls
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (2-0)
Historically, the Bulls have always been a thorn in the side of the Cavaliers (Jordan over Ehlo anyone?) In my opinion I think if Pau Gasol had stayed healthy through their playoff series last season the Bulls would have upset the Cavs. The probable absence of Joakim Noah for the rest of the season and the loss of defensive-minded coach Tom Thibodeau would hurt Chicago in a 7 game series this year, but with the Cavs also hiring a new coach (Bulls beat the Cavs in Lue’s coaching debut) and their history with this Bulls team and their inability to stop Gasol, I think a healthy Bulls team (even without Noah) could finish the job that they couldn’t finish last year in an upset over the Cavs in six or seven games.
Official Chance: 7.5 out of 10
Current 6th Seed: Indiana Pacers
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (0-2)
This isn’t the Pacers team of years past, and it’s shown through their inconsistent play throughout this season. The Pacers have the superstar in Paul George but mostly a combination of young, unproven talent and players who haven’t had a ton of playoff success. The results kind of remind of the Pacers-Heat regular season series from a few seasons ago. Indiana would beat the Heat in pretty resounding fashion during the regular season then for the most part looked overmatched in a playoff series. This Pacer team could probably push the Cavs to six games at the max, but that may be pushing it.
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Official Chance: 3 out of 10
Current 5th Seed: Miami Heat
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (1-1)
The Miami Heat currently have an even split in the season series against the Cavs. This could potentially be a second round series, with Miami looking to finish somewhere between third and fifth in the standings and Cleveland most likely holding on to the top spot. How intriguing would this series be? Lebron vs the team he left after four straight NBA Finals appearances? Stars all over the floor (James, Irving, Love vs Bosh, Wade, Dragic). And wild cards on both sides such as the hot shooting of JR Smith and the defensive prowess of Hassan Whiteside. Miami is a strong team but the aging defense of Luol Deng may not be enough to stop Lebron, and the Cavs bench has a lot more firepower than Miami’s. Miami would have to take a team approach to defense, which has worked well as they are currently second in the league in points against per game. While I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami pulled off the upset, I don’t think it’s too likely. You need amazing three point shooting and/or a dominant inside offensive presence, neither of which Miami has at an elite level.
Official Chance: 5 out of 10
Current 4th Seed: Atlanta Hawks
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (0-1)
The Hawks are a solid basketball team top to bottom, but I think that’s what hurts their playoff chances. They’re just “solid”, no superstar that a team usually needs to take it to the next level. The Hawks are like that group of girls you see at a bar, they are all very attractive, but they are all only a solid 7 across the board. Above average, but nothing that makes you say “wow”. While a series against Atlanta wouldn’t be easy, Cleveland would more than likely prevail, similar to the 4-0 sweep the Cavs handed the Hawks last season in the Eastern Conference Finals due to the fact you need a superstar or at least a budding superstar ( a Khawi Leonard type) to have a chance against a Lebron-led team.
Official Chance: 3 out of 10
Current 3rd Seed: Boston Celtics
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (1-1)
The game winning three pointer Avery Bradley hit in Cleveland during their last meeting evened up the regular season series with Cleveland. While Boston is a much-improved team from last season, I’m not sure if I trust them in a playoff series against the Cavs. With the youth on the Celtics roster and lack of overall playoff experience, the Celtics are still one season away from being a true contender in my eyes. While I don’t think the Celtics would get swept like last season, I don’t think they have a realistic shot at defeating Cleveland in a seven game series.
Official Chance: 2 out of 10
Current 2nd Seed: Toronto Raptors
Record vs Cavs as of Feb. 16 (1-1)
The Raptors went into the All-Star Break as one of the hottest teams in the league and have a very dynamic backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan. If the Raptors get Demarre Carroll back and playing at a high that could go a long way for their chances. However, I don’t know if Toronto has the on-ball defense needed to beat the Cavs in a playoff series despite currently being fifth in the league in points against per game. I feel that Cleveland would power through Toronto in five or six games.
Official Chance: 4 out of 10
There you have it. Overall I believe that the Cleveland Cavaliers are the top team in the East but the three teams that have the best shot at beating them are the Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, and the Toronto Raptors. I truly believe that a healthy Bulls team even without Joakim Noah has what it takes to knock the Bulls off. They have a great combination of defensive presence and the ability to score on the perimeter and in the paint. The Heat are capable of beating the Cavs if their stars play well in combination with their bench, which hasn’t happened consistently enough this year. If the Raptors can make it an up and down, backcourt-oriented series they can make things very interesting.
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