Fan Duel Week 6 Value Plays!

What’s up everyone, week 5 is in the books as we continue to heat things up! Week 4 brought us the first Tuesday night game in over 80 years! After a troubling week 4 on FanDuel, here is to hoping scores update in real time this week, cheers! Don’t forget my GUT FEELING PLAYER this week and as always, we only play milli makers here!

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Week 5 Gut Feeling Player: Evan Engram

Take it for what you want, but Evan Engram was an ok play last week despite having a 25 yard touchdown called back on what was a tic tacky call. Had the play stood, Engram finishes as the weeks number 2 tight end, but unfortunately, he didn’t. Being I have HIGH expectations of myself to do more than just beat a players projections for my GUT FEELING PLAYER, I’ll agree to disagree with you and give myself a tie. Engram didn’t make nor break lineups.

Gut Feeling Play Record: 3-1-1

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford (@ JAC) – $7,300

Now 5 weeks into 2020 and removed from the season ending injury last year, I expect Stafford to continue his pace of solid play against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 7^th most points to the position and has allowed 3 top 9 finishes at the QB position through 5 weeks this season. Stafford hasn’t had the softest of schedules to start the year facing secondaries like the Saints, Bears and Packers in addition to Kenny Golladay not being healthy the first 2 weeks of the season. With Kenny G, Stafford has averaged 20.92 points with a 5-1 TD/INT ratio; compared to 17.17 FanDuel points  and a 3-2 TD/INT ratio. I don’t know about you, but I love taking Quarterbacks coming off a bye week; they seem to be just THAT much more prepared. Stafford will finish as a top5 QB this week and possibly top3 in the main slate.

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry (vs HOU) – $9,000

Week 5 is a tough week to find “value plays” as the running back position is priced reasonable this week. Henry is one of this week’s players I am very comfortable paying up for. He is the most expensive back on the main slate, and he goes up against division rival, The Houston Texans, a bottom of the third run defense at best, in the league. Last week was the first of the season in which Houston didn’t allow a backfield to combine for more than 23 fantasy points and only the 2^nd time a running back finished outside the top 12. We knew before and after the Titans impressive win against Buffalo that Henry wasn’t going to handle a full work load as the Titans hadn’t played in 16 days; yet he still handled 19 carries that didn’t amount to many yards but resulted in 2 rushing touchdowns. Tennessee, despite the impressive play from Tannehill, does not want to get into a shootout with Houston. Tennessee is middle of the pack against Quarterbacks but allow the 10^th most points to Wide Receivers; Watson is a top tier quarterback, it would be wise if the Titans kept the ball on the ground.

James Robinson (vs DET) – $6,500

Well this is weird, I just told you to take the quarterback from the other side, but that doesn’t bother me this week with James Robinson. Detroit is giving up the most rushing yards per game at 170.3; nearly 10 more yards than the 2^nd most, Houston with 160.4 (see what I did there.) James Robinson has sneakily slid into RB1 range following the Fournette release and Ryquell Armstead hitting IR due to COVID and never returning. He’s averaging 14.6 carries a game and 66.6 rushing yards; that’s more than guys like Taylor, Carson, Drake, and Kamara. Robinson has also gotten it done through the air with 19 receptions on 22 targets (11 in his last 2 games.) Detroit’s defense? What about it, allowing the 4^th most points per game at 31.8, I believe Jacksonville will score and so does Vegas as they have this as a 54.5 o/u; SECOND HIGHEST to only Green Bay at Tampa Bay, on the main slate.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Adam Thielen (vs ATL) – $7,400

I hit on this play last week when I took Robby Anderson against this very same defense. The presence of Justin Jefferson has emerged and it looks like Thielen is getting open at the same rate he was back when Diggs was running the X. Thielen has been on fire with 28 targets, 20 receptions, 223 yards and 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. We know Atlanta allows the 7^th most points to the position this year but have also allowed both the X and Y receivers to finish inside the top24 in 3 of the first 5 weeks of the season. Thielen is as valued as they come, the 6^th most expensive player on the slate at $7,400, Thielen will finish with 2.5x value, which is also safe. Take a hard look at Justin Jefferson, too, especially if you’re paying up at other positions and need a cheap WR play.

GUT FEELING PLAYER

Myles Gaskin (vs NYJ) – $5,700

True story, I started writing this part of my article and DeVante Parker was the first name I wrote, and like the GREAT, Eli Manning, I called an audible and pivoted to his teammate. The Jets, as bad as they are, are middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers and Tight Ends EXCEPT for Running backs having allowed the 6^th most points to the position. This is yet another game where the Jets will be led by Joe Flacco on the road where Miami should control temple, pace and the score. Gaskin will be a big part of that and should lead his team in touches once again. Gaskin has been hogging carries in the backfield and all the targets out the backfield. Having 25 targets through 5 games, and averaging 17.4 touches per game, I expect a smooth 20+ touch game for Gaskin, the first of his career. Jordan Howard being a healthy scratch in week 5 added a ton of perspective, as Gaskin handled the goal line touches; something that kept him out of flex range since week 1. But with Howard most likely being a healthy scratch yet again, Miami not ultimately signing Bell and a positive game script; Gaskin is MY GUT FEELING PLAYER of the week!

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